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\normalsize
UNSW Sydney, Australia\\
March 25, 2024
March 27, 2024

% Except where otherwise noted, content in this thesis is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. Copyright 2015,Tom Pollard.

Expand Down Expand Up @@ -919,9 +919,9 @@ \section{Structure of the thesis}\label{structure-of-the-thesis}}
market participation to date. Then, in a case study of the NEM, I
examine errors in the NEM's centralised price forecasts, propose a
hypothesis to explain increasing divergence and the occurrence of price
swings in these forecasts, and then use the same centralised price
forecasts to schedule a variety of battery energy storage systems for
wholesale energy market arbitrage to assess the impact of imperfect
swings in these forecasts, and subsequently use the same centralised
price forecasts to schedule a variety of battery energy storage systems
for wholesale energy market arbitrage to assess the impact of imperfect
foresight on arbitrage revenues. I conclude by discussing changes to
market participant scheduling and market design that could maximise the
balancing value of resources such as battery energy storage systems.
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -1863,11 +1863,9 @@ \subsubsection{Dispatch}\label{dispatch}}
O'Malley, 2016};
\protect\hyperlink{ref-schiroProcurementPricingRamping2017}{Schiro,
2017}). The dispatch solution for each dispatch interval (typically
5--15 minutes long
(\protect\hyperlink{ref-irenaIncreasingTimeGranularity2019}{IRENA,
2019})) consists of generation and consumption setpoints, enablement
quantities for resources providing frequency control services and, in
central dispatch markets that integrate power system and market
5--15 minutes long) consists of generation and consumption setpoints,
enablement quantities for resources providing frequency control services
and, in central dispatch markets that integrate power system and market
operation, real-time market locational marginal prices for energy and
ancillary services
(\protect\hyperlink{ref-cramtonElectricityMarketDesign2017}{Cramton,
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -1978,8 +1976,8 @@ \section{Designing balancing practices in operational
timeframes}\label{sec:lit_review-design}}

Energy transition has prompted policy-makers worldwide to revisit and
redesign existing balancing practices in their jurisdictions. There is a
degree of international consensus surrounding desirable high-level
redesign existing balancing practices in their jurisdictions. There is
some degree of international consensus surrounding desirable high-level
design outcomes (Section~\ref{sec:lit_review-design_outcomes}) and a
suite of changes that could assist with accommodating greater shares of
VRE. I describe these changes in Section~\ref{sec:fcs-ibr-challenges}
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -2076,8 +2074,8 @@ \subsubsection{Variable renewable energy and inverter-based
Section~\ref{sec:fcs-ibr-challenges} and
Section~\ref{sec:reserves-intro}. These challenges are of greater
concern to islanded power systems and weakly-interconnected control
areas that have limited to no assistance from a wider synchronous area
for balancing assistance
areas that have limited to no access to a wider synchronous area for
balancing assistance
(\protect\hyperlink{ref-hodgeAddressingTechnicalChallenges2020}{Hodge et
al., 2020}).

Expand Down Expand Up @@ -2113,9 +2111,9 @@ \subsubsection{The tension between effectiveness and
procurement arrangements are \emph{centralised} (i.e.~managed by the
SO). The SO is best placed to manage the procurement of specialised and
system-critical frequency control services, whereas the provision of
some forms of balancing flexibility in scheduling timeframes is largely
left to market participants to self-manage. I use this problem framing
when outlining the research objectives of this thesis in Chapter
some forms of balancing flexibility in scheduling timeframes can largely
be left to market participants to self-manage. I use this problem
framing when outlining the research objectives of this thesis in Chapter
\ref{sec:research_framework}.

\hypertarget{sec:lit_review-design-challenges-secondbest}{%
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -2294,9 +2292,8 @@ \subsubsection{The design problem is
must determine the trade-offs between different design objectives for
each solution configuration (e.g.~between complexity, reducing
constraints on the system and the level of nuance or layering in the
suite of power system services), and that they must also assess which
trade-offs are most acceptable across all practical solution
configurations
suite of power system services), and must also assess which trade-offs
are most acceptable across all practical solution configurations
(\protect\hyperlink{ref-vanderveenElectricityBalancingMarket2016}{van
der Veen and Hakvoort, 2016}).

Expand Down Expand Up @@ -2561,21 +2558,22 @@ \subsection{Research Objective 3}\label{research-objective-3}}

Understanding the quantity of balancing flexibility available in a power
system is inadequate if market participants are unable or unwilling to
offer it into the wholesale spot market. Market participation decisions
and thus resource schedules are informed by knowledge processes, which
provide current and forecasted power system and market information. As
such, these knowledge processes and, more broadly, market participation
rules must be purpose-fit to enable resource scheduling that leads to
effective and efficient system balancing. To the best of my knowledge,
there are only a few studies that discuss the significance of market
information and market participation rules in scheduling power system
resources in electricity markets. However, none of these studies use
empirical evidence to support scheduling or policy recommendations.
Furthermore, whilst previous studies have examined the impact of
imperfect foresight on energy storage resources with different storage
durations, they do not simulate storage operation in fast markets
(i.e.~dispatch decisions every 5 minutes) with high real-time prices and
significant penetrations of VRE.
offer resource flexibility into wholesale electricity markets. Market
participation decisions and thus resource schedules are informed by
knowledge processes, which provide current and forecasted power system
and market information. As such, these knowledge processes and, more
broadly, market participation rules must be purpose-fit to enable
resource scheduling that leads to effective and efficient system
balancing. To the best of my knowledge, there are only a few studies
that discuss the significance of market information and market
participation rules in scheduling power system resources in electricity
markets. However, none of these studies use empirical evidence to
support scheduling or policy recommendations. Furthermore, whilst
previous studies have examined the impact of imperfect foresight on
energy storage resources with different storage durations, they do not
simulate storage operation in fast markets (i.e.~dispatch decisions
every 5 minutes) with high real-time prices and significant penetrations
of VRE.

Chapter \ref{sec:info} explores how market information and market
participant operational strategies impact the deployability of balancing
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -10502,10 +10500,6 @@ \chapter*{References}\label{references}}
\href{http://www.irena.org/publications/2017/May/Adapting-Market-Design-to-High-Shares-of-Variable-Renewable-Energy}{Adapting
{Market Design To High Shares} of {Variable Renewable Energy}}.

\leavevmode\vadjust pre{\hypertarget{ref-irenaIncreasingTimeGranularity2019}{}}%
IRENA, 2019. \href{https://www.irena.org}{Increasing time granularity in
electricity markets}.

\leavevmode\vadjust pre{\hypertarget{ref-isemongerEvolvingDesignRTO2009}{}}%
Isemonger, A.G., 2009. The evolving design of {RTO} ancillary service
markets. Energy Policy 37, 150--157.
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Expand Up @@ -72,7 +72,7 @@ This thesis consists of 7 chapters and 4 appendices.

**[Chapter @sec:reserves]** focuses on understanding balancing flexibility *capabilities* available in scheduling timeframes as VRE and storage become a larger part of system resource mixes. In this chapter, I first provide an overview of how balancing flexibility is enabled and procured in the NEM before describing a methodology to quantify available reserves and footroom across deployment horizons for various resource types. I then quantify the available reserves and footroom in two regions of the NEM for existing resource mixes in 2020 and potential resources mixes in 2025, with two scenarios for the latter. From the findings of this case study, I explore the role of reserve products in securing balancing flexibility. **[Appendix @sec:appendix-reserves_assumptions]** outlines the sources for key input data and assumptions, and provides further details regarding how these data were used in the analysis.

**[Chapter @sec:info]** explores how future pricing information and market participant operational strategies affect the *deployability* of balancing flexibility from energy storage resources. In this chapter, I first summarise market information, participation and clearing processes in the NEM in addition to providing context on grid-scale energy storage resource deployment, operation and market participation to date. Then, in a case study of the NEM, I examine errors in the NEM's centralised price forecasts, propose a hypothesis to explain increasing divergence and the occurrence of price swings in these forecasts, and then use the same centralised price forecasts to schedule a variety of battery energy storage systems for wholesale energy market arbitrage to assess the impact of imperfect foresight on arbitrage revenues. I conclude by discussing changes to market participant scheduling and market design that could maximise the balancing value of resources such as battery energy storage systems. **[Appendix @sec:appendix-milps]** presents the mixed-integer linear program formulations used in the storage modelling in [Chapter @sec:info], and **[Appendix @sec:appendix-discounting]** describes the methodology used to model a storage scheduler discounting price forecasts (one of the formulations used in the storage modelling in [Chapter @sec:info] and described in [Appendix @sec:appendix-milps]).
**[Chapter @sec:info]** explores how future pricing information and market participant operational strategies affect the *deployability* of balancing flexibility from energy storage resources. In this chapter, I first summarise market information, participation and clearing processes in the NEM in addition to providing context on grid-scale energy storage resource deployment, operation and market participation to date. Then, in a case study of the NEM, I examine errors in the NEM's centralised price forecasts, propose a hypothesis to explain increasing divergence and the occurrence of price swings in these forecasts, and subsequently use the same centralised price forecasts to schedule a variety of battery energy storage systems for wholesale energy market arbitrage to assess the impact of imperfect foresight on arbitrage revenues. I conclude by discussing changes to market participant scheduling and market design that could maximise the balancing value of resources such as battery energy storage systems. **[Appendix @sec:appendix-milps]** presents the mixed-integer linear program formulations used in the storage modelling in [Chapter @sec:info], and **[Appendix @sec:appendix-discounting]** describes the methodology used to model a storage scheduler discounting price forecasts (one of the formulations used in the storage modelling in [Chapter @sec:info] and described in [Appendix @sec:appendix-milps]).

**[Chapter @sec:conclusion]** concludes the thesis. In this chapter, I summarise the contributions of this thesis and highlight avenues for further work.

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