Merge pull request #596 from oasisprotocol/lw/post-damask-estimates

Better estimate staking rewards after Damask
oasisprotocol · Nov 9, 2023 · c9e12d0 · c9e12d0
2 parents 5f6964e + d92165a
commit c9e12d0
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Showing 4 changed files with 282 additions and 260 deletions.
diff --git a/docs/general/oasis-network/staking_rewards/Chart.tsx b/docs/general/oasis-network/staking_rewards/Chart.tsx
@@ -9,7 +9,8 @@ import data from './data.json';
 const knownOffsets = {
   beta: { epoch: 0, date: '2020-10-01T16:00:00Z' },
   mainnet: { epoch: 1170, date: '2020-11-18T16:00:00.000Z' },
-  recent: { epoch: 15835, date: '2022-07-20T16:11:11.000Z' },
+  epoch15835: { epoch: 15835, date: '2022-07-20T16:11:11.000Z' },
+  epoch18653: { epoch: 18653, date: '2022-11-13T13:33:25.000Z' },
 
   // epoch from https://oasismonitor.com/block/4000000
   // time from https://www.oasisscan.com/blocks/4000000
@@ -18,44 +19,56 @@ const knownOffsets = {
   block6M: { epoch: 9992, date: '2021-11-19T23:18:41.000Z' },
   block7M: { epoch: 11656, date: '2022-01-28T05:06:25.000Z' },
   block8M: { epoch: 13320, date: '2022-04-07T22:49:44.000Z' },
+  // Damask Upgrade was at https://api.oasisscan.com/mainnet/chain/block/8048956
   block9M: { epoch: 14987, date: '2022-06-15T16:22:57.000Z' },
+  block10M: { epoch: 16653, date: '2022-08-23T09:29:12.000Z' },
+  block11M: { epoch: 18320, date: '2022-10-30T22:41:53.000Z' },
+  block12M: { epoch: 19987, date: '2023-01-07T03:06:08.000Z' },
+  block13M: { epoch: 21653, date: '2023-03-16T05:47:42.000Z' },
+  block14M: { epoch: 23320, date: '2023-05-22T22:04:26.000Z' },
+  block15M: { epoch: 24987, date: '2023-07-29T13:10:58.000Z' },
+  block16M: { epoch: 26653, date: '2023-10-05T04:13:33.000Z' },
+
+  recent: { epoch: 27320, date: '2023-11-01T03:48:29.000Z' },
 };
-const offsetFrom = knownOffsets.recent;
 
-const estimatedEpochsPerHour = (knownOffsets.recent.epoch - knownOffsets.mainnet.epoch) / ((new Date(knownOffsets.recent.date).getTime() - new Date(knownOffsets.mainnet.date).getTime()) / 1000 / 60 / 60);
-const estimatedEpochsPerYear = 365 * 24 * estimatedEpochsPerHour;
+// Estimate up to epoch 15835 instead of Damask for consistency with how we made
+// the first iteration of estimations. And it mostly covers pre-Damask epochs.
+// Switch between estimates at steeper curve at epoch 18653.
+const estimatedEpochsPerHourPreDamask = (knownOffsets.epoch15835.epoch - knownOffsets.mainnet.epoch) / ((new Date(knownOffsets.epoch15835.date).getTime() - new Date(knownOffsets.mainnet.date).getTime()) / 1000 / 60 / 60);
+const estimatedEpochsPerHourAfterDamask = (knownOffsets.recent.epoch - knownOffsets.block12M.epoch) / ((new Date(knownOffsets.recent.date).getTime() - new Date(knownOffsets.block12M.date).getTime()) / 1000 / 60 / 60);
 
 // From genesis "reward_factor_epoch_signed": "1"
 const rewardFactorEpochSigned = 1;
 // https://github.com/oasisprotocol/oasis-core/blob/d8e352b/go/staking/api/rewards.go#L22
 const rewardAmountDenominator = 100_000_000;
 
-const estimateEpochDates = (epochOffsets: number[]) => {
-  return epochOffsets
-    .map(epochOffset => {
-      const timeOffset = (epochOffset - offsetFrom.epoch) / estimatedEpochsPerHour * 60 * 60 * 1000;
-      const date = new Date(new Date(offsetFrom.date).getTime() + timeOffset);
-      return date.toISOString();
-    });
-};
+const estimateEpochDatesAndAPY = (data: Array<{ untilEpoch: number, scale: number }>) => {
+  return data
+    .map(({ untilEpoch, scale }) => {
+      const estimatedEpochsPerHour = untilEpoch > knownOffsets.epoch18653.epoch ? estimatedEpochsPerHourAfterDamask : estimatedEpochsPerHourPreDamask
+      const offsetFrom = untilEpoch > knownOffsets.epoch18653.epoch ? knownOffsets.recent : knownOffsets.epoch15835;
 
-const estimateAPY = (scaleRewards: number[]) => {
-  return scaleRewards
-    .map(scale => {
+      const timeOffset = (untilEpoch - offsetFrom.epoch) / estimatedEpochsPerHour * 60 * 60 * 1000;
+      const date = new Date(new Date(offsetFrom.date).getTime() + timeOffset).toISOString();
+
+      const estimatedEpochsPerYear = 365 * 24 * estimatedEpochsPerHour;
       const rewardPerEpoch = scale * rewardFactorEpochSigned / rewardAmountDenominator;
       // Better numerical precision than yearlyCompoundedRate = (1 + rewardPerEpoch)**estimatedEpochsPerYear - 1
       const yearlyCompoundedRate = Math.expm1(Math.log1p(rewardPerEpoch) * estimatedEpochsPerYear)
-      return yearlyCompoundedRate;
+
+      return { untilEpoch, scale, date, rewardPerEpoch, yearlyCompoundedRate };
     });
 };
 
 
 const StakingRewardsChart = () => {
+  const estimates = estimateEpochDatesAndAPY(data)
   const chart: PlotlyDataLayoutConfig = {
     data: [
       {
-        x: estimateEpochDates(data.map(d => d.untilEpoch)),
-        y: estimateAPY(data.map(d => d.scale)),
+        x: estimates.map(d => d.date),
+        y: estimates.map(d => d.yearlyCompoundedRate),
         mode: 'lines',
         name: 'Annualized rewards',
         marker: {color: '#4285F4'},
@@ -118,6 +131,12 @@ const StakingRewardsChart = () => {
   // const PlotlyBasic: typeof import('plotly.js-basic-dist') = require('plotly.js-basic-dist');
   // PlotlyBasic.downloadImage(chart, { filename: 'fallback', format:'svg', width: 960, height: 600 });
 
+  // To generate data.csv:
+  // const csv = [
+  //   ['Until epoch', 'Estimated date', 'Reward per epoch %', 'Estimated annualized rewards %'].join(','),
+  //   ...estimates.map((d) => [d.untilEpoch, d.date, (d.rewardPerEpoch * 100).toFixed(6), (d.yearlyCompoundedRate * 100).toFixed(4)].join(','))
+  // ].join('\n')
+  // console.log(csv)
   return <PlotlyChart label="Staking Rewards Schedule (time estimated from epoch interval)" chart={chart} fallbackSvg={FallbackSvg} />;
 };
 
@@ -132,11 +151,12 @@ function testEstimatedEpochDates() {
     maximumFractionDigits: 1,
   });
 
-  console.info('DEV: estimatedEpochsPerHour', estimatedEpochsPerHour);
+  console.info('DEV: estimatedEpochsPerHourPreDamask', estimatedEpochsPerHourPreDamask);
+  console.info('DEV: estimatedEpochsPerHourAfterDamask', estimatedEpochsPerHourAfterDamask);
   console.info(
-    'DEV: diff between estimateEpochDates and known dates',
+    'DEV: diff between estimates and known dates',
     Object.entries(knownOffsets).map(([epochName, {epoch, date}]) => {
-      const estimatedTime = new Date(estimateEpochDates([epoch])[0]).getTime();
+      const estimatedTime = new Date(estimateEpochDatesAndAPY([{ untilEpoch: epoch, scale: 1 }])[0].date).getTime();
       const indexedTime = new Date(date).getTime();
       const diffHours = (indexedTime - estimatedTime) / 1000 / 60 / 60;
       return `at ${epochName} (${epoch}): ${diffHoursFormatter.format(diffHours)}`;