Transport improvements for 2024-W32

[khaeru]

• (1) LDV base year stock (details below).
  • (1.1) Construct total vehicle stock for 2020.
  • (1.2) Update occupancy and VDT/vehicle/year to match (1.1) with available data.
  • (1.3) Update shares of each technology in 2020 sales.
• (2) Update freight activity baseline values (details below).
• (3) Update cost projections for t=ELC_100 & PHEV_ptrp (LDV EV) (details below)

Carried from #212:

• @khaeru: Investigate scale-1 values/pass-through of values for c=methanol.

Copied from iiasa/message_data#567:

• @r-aneeque: update freight-activity.csv for n=R12_CHN

Housekeeping:

• Update .util.path_fallback() and .tools.iea.web.IEA_EWEB to check the user's local data path for the IEA EWEB data files. This allows to use these files (by dropping in manually, or by symlinking iiasa/message-static-data) without installing message_data.
• Many other changes.

How to review

• Read the diff and note that the CI checks all pass.
• View the documentation preview built from changes on this branch.
• More TBA

PR checklist

• Continuous integration checks all ✅
• Add or expand tests; coverage checks both ✅
• Add, expand, or update documentation.
• Update doc/whatsnew.

[khaeru]

@ravitby, this is the current branch for development of MESSAGEix-Transport in its new home in the message-ix-models package. Please use the "Details" link next to "docs/readthedocs.com:iiasa-energy-program-message-ix-models" to view the modified docs on per changes on this branch.

[codecov]

Codecov Report

Attention: Patch coverage is 94.94585% with 28 lines in your changes missing coverage. Please review.

Project coverage is 59.5%. Comparing base (5fe36ca) to head (7c50871).
Report is 468 commits behind head on main.

Files with missing lines	Patch %	Lines
message_ix_models/model/transport/workflow.py	35.0%	13 Missing ⚠️
message_ix_models/model/transport/ldv.py	94.1%	4 Missing ⚠️
...essage_ix_models/tests/model/transport/test_ldv.py	90.3%	3 Missing ⚠️
message_ix_models/model/transport/operator.py	96.0%	2 Missing ⚠️
message_ix_models/tools/iea/web.py	87.5%	2 Missing ⚠️
message_ix_models/model/transport/base.py	98.6%	1 Missing ⚠️
message_ix_models/model/transport/data.py	97.6%	1 Missing ⚠️
message_ix_models/model/transport/files.py	99.2%	1 Missing ⚠️
...sage_ix_models/tests/model/transport/test_build.py	0.0%	1 Missing ⚠️

Additional details and impacted files

@@           Coverage Diff           @@
##            main    #213     +/-   ##
=======================================
+ Coverage   58.8%   59.5%   +0.7%     
=======================================
  Files        194     195      +1     
  Lines      15161   15491    +330     
=======================================
+ Hits        8922    9225    +303     
- Misses      6239    6266     +27     

Files with missing lines	Coverage Δ
message_ix_models/model/transport/build.py	95.3% <100.0%> (-0.1%)	⬇️
message_ix_models/model/transport/config.py	99.1% <100.0%> (+1.7%)	⬆️
message_ix_models/model/transport/demand.py	100.0% <100.0%> (ø)
message_ix_models/model/transport/disutility.py	100.0% <100.0%> (ø)
message_ix_models/model/transport/factor.py	91.0% <100.0%> (+<0.1%)	⬆️
message_ix_models/model/transport/groups.py	97.1% <100.0%> (+<0.1%)	⬆️
message_ix_models/model/transport/non_ldv.py	98.1% <100.0%> (+0.1%)	⬆️
message_ix_models/model/transport/report.py	49.7% <100.0%> (+0.2%)	⬆️
message_ix_models/model/transport/testing.py	100.0% <ø> (ø)
message_ix_models/project/advance/data.py	100.0% <100.0%> (ø)
... and 23 more

... and 1 file with indirect coverage changes

[r-aneeque]

Three main tasks for this week and I guess this branch:

• 1. LDV base year stock re-construction using 2020 data and projecting back to 2000-2005 (CAP_NEW) to reflect:

• For R12 regions with a focus on R12_NAM, R12_CHN, R12_WEU

• Use US Data for R12_NAM, address the issue of light trucks (SUVS, pick-up trucks)

• Address the R12_CHN vehicle stock (model) vs vehicle stock (data) gap

• 1.1 Construct Total Vehicle stock for 2020

• Vehicle stock by technology and fuel used

• Average age of the vehicles-in-use

• 1.2 Update Occupancy rate & Vehicle kilometers travelled (VKT), use these to match the model stocks with OICA stocks

• 1.3 New sales in 2020

• Share of EVs, PHEV in New sales

• 2. Update Freight demand baseline estimates

• Start with R12_CHN low baseline numbers,

• Temporary fix: maybe adjust base year Road_freight demand estimates upwards, until we have the ability to include Waterways, Rail freight modes

• 3. Update cost trajectory of EVs for different regions so that:

• It reflects GEVO 2023 and other know cost ratios

• EV uptake is higher than current settings, especially in the later half

• Leaves enough space for policy to increase the uptake (both volume & speed)

Additionally,
 Look into non-ldv technologies, especially the technology costs and fuels being used
 Check AIR demand
 Prepare a model run that can be evaluated, and passed on to base model (Oliver) by the end of the week.