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# Authors | ||
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## Authorship of the notebooks | ||
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All notebooks were created | ||
by [Daniel Huppmann](https://www.iiasa.ac.at/staff/huppmann) | ||
([@danielhuppmann](https://github.com/danielhuppmann)) | ||
in close collaboration with the authors of Chapter 2 | ||
of the **IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C** | ||
([Rogelj, Shindell, Jiang, et al., 2018](http://www.ipcc.ch/report/sr15/)). | ||
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Joeri Rogelj, Elmar Kriegler, Luis Mundaca, Piers Forster, Shigeki Kobayashi, | ||
Roland Séférian, María Virginia Vilariño and other authors of the SR15 | ||
contributed to the methodology of the assessment and development of figures | ||
and tables generated by the notebooks. | ||
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## Authorship of the scenario ensemble | ||
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### Guidelines for authorship of the scenario ensemble | ||
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The IAMC Steering Committee agreed on the following rules to decide | ||
on the list of authors for the scenario resource: | ||
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1) the group of people involved in the collection, vetting, | ||
and review of the scenario data, | ||
2) all first authors of the studies that submitted scenarios to the ensemble, | ||
3) in case that modelling teams have a limited number of first-authors, | ||
it is possible to nominate additional authors. In this case, each team can | ||
nominate one author per study that they contributed to, | ||
up to a maximum of three authors (ie, under point (2) and (3) each team | ||
is eligible to a total number of three authors, unless more than three | ||
first-author studies were submitted by the team). | ||
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### List of authors | ||
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Group of authors involved in the collection, vetting, | ||
and review of scenario data (see guidelines, item 1): | ||
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- Daniel Huppmann (SR1.5 Chapter 2 author, coordination, review & vetting, | ||
technical implementation and data transfer) | ||
- Elmar Kriegler (SR1.5 Chapter 2 author, vetting & review) | ||
- Volker Krey (technical implementation and data transfer) | ||
- Keywan Riahi (SR1.5 Chapter 5 author, review, project lead) | ||
- Joeri Rogelj (SR1.5 Chapter 2 author, vetting & review) | ||
- Steven Rose (major contributions to the IAMC-IPCC coordination and the MoU) | ||
- John Weyant (major contributions to the IAMC-IPCC coordination and the MoU) | ||
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Authors representing modelling teams that submitted scenarios | ||
to the ensemble (see guidelines, items 2 and 3): | ||
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- Nico Bauer *(REMIND-MAgPIE, Bauer et al., forthcoming)* | ||
- Christoph Bertram *(REMIND-MAgPIE, Bertram et al., 2018)* | ||
- Valentina Bosetti *(WITCH, nominated per guidelines item 3)* | ||
- Katherine Calvin *(GCAM, nominated per guidelines item 3)* | ||
- Jonathan Doelman *(IMAGE, nominated per guidelines item 3)* | ||
- Laurent Drouet *(WITCH, nominated per guidelines item 3)* | ||
- Johannes Emmerling *(WITCH, nominated per guidelines item 3)* | ||
- Stefan Frank *(MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM, nominated per guidelines item 3)* | ||
- Shinichiro Fujimori *(AIM, nominated per guidelines item 3)* | ||
- David Gernaat *(IMAGE, nominated per guidelines item 3)* | ||
- Arnulf Grubler *(MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM, Grubler et al., 2018)* | ||
- Céline Guivarch *(IMACLIM, nominated per guidelines item 3)* | ||
- Martin Haigh *(Shell, Shell International B.V., 2018)* | ||
- Christian Holz *(C-ROADS, Holz et al., 2018)* | ||
- Gokul Iyer *(GCAM, nominated per guidelines item 3)* | ||
- Etsushi Kato *(GRAPE, nominated per guidelines item 3)* | ||
- Kimon Keramidas *(POLES, nominated per guidelines item 3)* | ||
- Alban Kitous *(POLES, nominated per guidelines item 3)* | ||
- Florian Leblanc *(IMACLIM, nominated per guidelines item 3)* | ||
- Jing-Yu Liu *(AIM, Liu et al., 2018)* | ||
- Konstantin Löffler *(GENeSYSMOD, Löffler et al., 2017)* | ||
- Gunnar Luderer *(REMIND-MAgPIE, Luderer et al., 2018)* | ||
- Adriana Marcucci *(MERGE-ETL, Marcucci et al., 2017)* | ||
- David McCollum *(MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM, McCollum et al., 2018)* | ||
- Silvana Mima *(POLES, nominated per guidelines item 3)* | ||
- Alexander Popp *(REMIND-MAgPIE, nominated per guidelines item 2)* | ||
- Ronald D. Sands *(FARM, nominated per guidelines item 3)* | ||
- Fuminori Sano *(DNE21+, nominated per guidelines item 3)* | ||
- Jessica Strefler *(REMIND-MAgPIE, Strefler et al., 2018)* | ||
- Junichi Tsutsui *(BET, nominated per guidelines item 3)* | ||
- Detlef van Vuuren *(IMAGE, Van Vuuren et al., 2018)* | ||
- Zoi Vrontisi *(GEM-E3, Vrontisi et al., 2018)* | ||
- Marshall Wise *(GCAM, nominated per guidelines item 3)* | ||
- Runsen Zhang *(AIM, Zhang et al., 2018)* | ||
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## Acknowledgements | ||
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The authors wish to thank Peter Kolp for the technical support in the | ||
compilation and data management of the scenario ensemble. | ||
Nikolay Kushin and Michael Pimmer are acknowledged for their contribution to | ||
the development of the scenario explorer and the database infrastructure. |
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# Scenario analysis notebooks <br />for the *IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C* | ||
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## License | ||
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Copyright 2018 IIASA | ||
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Licensed under the Apache License, Version 2.0 (the "License"); | ||
you may not use this file except in compliance with the License. | ||
You may obtain a copy of the License at | ||
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http://www.apache.org/licenses/LICENSE-2.0 | ||
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Unless required by applicable law or agreed to in writing, software | ||
distributed under the License is distributed on an "AS IS" BASIS, | ||
WITHOUT WARRANTIES OR CONDITIONS OF ANY KIND, either express or implied. | ||
See the License for the specific language governing permissions and | ||
limitations under the License. | ||
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## Overview | ||
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The notebooks included in this repository implement the categorisation of | ||
scenarios by climate impact and generate figures, tables, summary statistics, | ||
and assessment indicators used in the **IPCC Special Report on Global Warming | ||
of 1.5°C** ([SR15](http://www.ipcc.ch/report/sr15/)). | ||
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See [analysis/README](analysis/README.md) for an overview of notebooks | ||
and the cross-references to figures, tables and assessment in the SR15. | ||
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A rendered version of this repository and the notebooks are available at | ||
[data.ene.iiasa.ac.at/sr15_scenario_analysis](https://data.ene.iiasa.ac.at/sr15_scenario_analysis). | ||
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## Tricklebacks and corrections | ||
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Due to changes of focus or groupings of scenarios in some assessments | ||
during the approval plenary of the IPCC, the SPM and chapters | ||
are still subject to minor changes and updates (i.e., tricklebacks) | ||
as well as correction of editorial errors until the final publication | ||
of the Special Report. For this reason, the outputs of notebooks included in | ||
this repository may deviate from the pre-release version of the SR1.5. | ||
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An updated version of the notebooks will be released following the | ||
publication of the final, copy-edited version of the SR1.5 | ||
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## Scenario ensemble download | ||
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The scenario ensemble used for this assessment is available for download | ||
at [data.ene.iiasa.ac.at/iamc-1.5c-explorer](https://data.ene.iiasa.ac.at/iamc-1.5c-explorer). | ||
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The scenario data is licensed under a derivative of the Creative Commons CC-BY 4.0 License. | ||
If appropriate reference is made to the data source, it is permitted to use | ||
the data for scientific research and science communication. | ||
However, redistribution of substantial portions of the data is restricted. | ||
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Please read the guidelines and legal code | ||
at [data.ene.iiasa.ac.at/iamc-1.5c-explorer/#/license](https://data.ene.iiasa.ac.at/iamc-1.5c-explorer/#/license) | ||
before redistributing this data or adapted material. | ||
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When using the scenario data for any analysis, figures or tables, | ||
please clearly state the release version of the scenario ensemble. | ||
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## Scientific references | ||
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For the **scientific assessment of the Special Report**, please cite: | ||
> Joeri Rogelj, Drew Shindell, Kejun Jiang, | ||
> Solomone Fifita, Piers Forster, Veronika Ginzburg, Collins Handa, | ||
> Haroon Kheshgi, Shigeki Kobayashi, Elmar Kriegler, Luis Mundaca, | ||
> Roland Séférian, and Maria Virginia Vilariño. | ||
> *Mitigation pathways compatible with 1.5°C | ||
> in the context of sustainable development*, | ||
> in "Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (SR15)". | ||
> Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Geneva, 2018. | ||
> url: [www.ipcc.ch/report/sr15/](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sr15/) | ||
For a **high-level description of the scenario ensemble**, please refer to: | ||
> Daniel Huppmann, Joeri Rogelj, Elmar Kriegler, Volker Krey, and Keywan Riahi. | ||
> A new scenario resource for integrated 1.5 °C research. | ||
> *Nature Climate Change*, 2018. | ||
> doi: [10.1038/s41558-018-0317-4](https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0317-4) | ||
When using the **scenario ensemble data** for own analysis, please cite: | ||
> Daniel Huppmann, Elmar Kriegler, Volker Krey, Keywan Riahi, Joeri Rogelj, | ||
> Steven K. Rose, John Weyant, et al., | ||
> *IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer and Data hosted by IIASA*. | ||
> Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium & International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 2018. | ||
> doi: [10.22022/SR15/08-2018.15429](https://doi.org/10.22022/SR15/08-2018.15429) | | ||
> url: [data.ene.iiasa.ac.at/iamc-1.5c-explorer](https://data.ene.iiasa.ac.at/iamc-1.5c-explorer) | ||
For the **Jupyter notebooks containing figure plotting and analysis scripts** | ||
included in this repository, please cite: | ||
> Daniel Huppmann et al., | ||
> *Scenario analysis notebooks for the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C*. 2018. | ||
> doi: [10.22022/SR15/08-2018.15428](https://doi.org/10.22022/SR15/08-2018.15428) | | ||
> url: [github.com/iiasa/ipcc_sr15_scenario_analysis](https://github.com/iiasa/ipcc_sr15_scenario_analysis) | ||
Please refer to the [AUTHORS](AUTHORS.md) document for the full list of authors | ||
of the scenario ensemble and the notebooks in this repository. | ||
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You can download these citations and the references | ||
for all studies that submitted scenarios to the ensemble | ||
as [Endnote (enl)](bibliography/iamc_1.5c_scenario_data.enl), | ||
[Reference Manager (ris)](bibliography/iamc_1.5c_scenario_data.ris), | ||
and [BibTex (bib)](bibliography/iamc_1.5c_scenario_data.bib) format. | ||
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## Dependencies | ||
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The notebooks included in this repository depend on the *pyam* package, | ||
an open-source Python package for IAM scenario analysis and visualization | ||
developed by Matthew Gidden ([@gidden](https://github.com/gidden)) | ||
and Daniel Huppmann ([@danielhuppmann](https://github.com/danielhuppmann/)). | ||
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See [software.ene.iiasa.ac.at/pyam/](https://software.ene.iiasa.ac.at/pyam/) | ||
for installation instructions and the full documentation of *pyam*. | ||
The source code is available at [github.com/IAMconsortium/pyam](https://github.com/IAMconsortium/pyam). | ||
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# Overview of figures, tables and statistics generated from the notebooks | ||
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- Notebook `sr15_2.0_categories_indicators` | ||
- Validation of scenario data | ||
- Categorisation by climate impact and warming trajectory | ||
including **Table 2.1** | ||
- Assignment of illustrative pathway archetypes | ||
- Computation of metadata indicators | ||
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- Notebook `spm_sr15_statements` | ||
- Summary statistics and indicators | ||
derived from the scenario assessment | ||
highlighted in the *Summary for Policy Makers* | ||
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- Notebook `spm_sr15_figure_3a_global_emissions_pathways` | ||
- Data tables of emissions pathways | ||
for **Summary for Policymakers (SPM), Figure 3a** | ||
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- Notebook `spm_sr15_figure_3b_illustrative_pathways` | ||
- Diagnostic indicators of illustrative pathways | ||
for **Summary for Policymakers (SPM), Figure 3b** | ||
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- Notebook `sr15_2.3.1_range_of_assumptions` | ||
- **Figure 2.4**: Range of assumptions about socio-economic drivers and | ||
projections for energy and food demand in the pathways available | ||
for this assessment. | ||
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- Notebook `sr15_2.3.3_global_emissions_characteristics` | ||
- **Figure 2.6**: Annual global emissions characteristics | ||
for 2020, 2030, 2050 and 2100. | ||
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- Notebook `sr15_2.3.3_global_emissions_statistics` | ||
- **Table 2.4** Annual global emissions and absolute annual rates of change | ||
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- Notebook `sr15_2.3.3_short-lived_climate_forcers` | ||
- **Figure 2.7**: Global characteristics of a selection of short-lived | ||
non-CO2 emissions until mid-century. | ||
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- Notebook `sr15_2.3.3_short-lived_climate_forcers_radiative_forcing` | ||
- **Figure 2.8**: Estimated aggregated effective radiative forcing of SLCFs | ||
for 1.5°C and 2°C pathway classes in 2010, 2030, 2050, and 2100, | ||
as estimated by the FAIR model (Smith et al., 2018). | ||
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- Notebook `sr1p5_2.3.4_carbon_dioxide_removal` | ||
- **Figure 2.9**: Cumulative deployment of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) | ||
in 1.5°C-consistent pathways | ||
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- Notebook `sr15_2.4.1_final_energy` | ||
- **Figure 2.14**: Decomposition of transformation pathways by energy demand, | ||
carbon intensity of electricity, the electricity share in final energy, | ||
and the carbon intensity of the residual (non-electricity) fuel mix | ||
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- Notebook `sr15_2.4.2.1_primary_energy_marker-scenarios` | ||
- **Figure 2.15**: Primary energy supply for the four illustrative pathway | ||
archetypes and the IEA’s Faster Transition Scenario, and their relative | ||
location in the ranges for 1.5°C and 2°C pathways | ||
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- Notebook `sr15_2.4.2.1_primary_energy_statistics` | ||
- **Table 2.6**: Descriptive statistics of global primary energy supply | ||
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- Notebook `sr15_2.4.2.2_electricity_generation_marker-scenarios` | ||
- **Figure 2.16**: Electricity generation for the four illustrative pathway | ||
archetypes and the IEA’s Faster Transition Scenario, and their relative | ||
location in the ranges for 1.5°C and 2°C pathways | ||
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- Notebook `sr15_2.4.2.2_electricity_generation_statistics` | ||
- **Table 2.7**: Descriptive statistics of electricity generation by fuel | ||
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- Notebook `sr15_2.4.2.3_ccs_deployment` | ||
- **Figure 2.17**: CCS deployment in 1.5°C and 2°C pathways for biomass, coal | ||
and natural gas, and the cumulative quantity of carbon dioxide stored | ||
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- Notebook `sr15_2.4.4_afolu_emissions` | ||
- **Figure 2.25**: Agricultural non-CO2 emissions in 1.5°C pathways | ||
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- Notebook `sr15_2.5_carbon_price_analysis` | ||
- **Figure 2.26**: Global price of carbon emissions | ||
consistent with mitigation pathways grouped by warming category | ||
- Assessment of relative carbon prices between pairs | ||
of 1.5°C vs. 2°C pathways | ||
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- Notebook `sr15_4.2_sectoral_indicators` | ||
- **Table 4.1**: Sectoral indicators of the pace of transformation |
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# Output folder | ||
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This is the folder for output including tables and figures generated as part of the assessment for the IPCC SR1.5. |
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