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M3TID final v1.0 changes, as of 13 Feb 2024.
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Expand Up @@ -4,62 +4,37 @@ What is Threat-Informed Defense?
Definition
----------

The definition of Threat-Informed Defense is “the systematic application of a deep understanding of adversary tradecraft and technology to improve defenses.” This approach is
closely related to risk management as it encourages the prioritization of defensive investments based not only on potential impact, but also the probability of occurrence.
Informing a defensive posture with real threat information is a way to ground the probability estimation in evidence. To further maximize the return on threat-informed
defensive investments, Threat-Informed Defense encourages the use of threat information that is common across adversaries and time, rather than simply reacting to easily
changed indicators of malicious activity. The goal is to leverage knowledge of real adversary behavior and probability of attacks to provide a lens through which to prioritize
security investments – whether they be people, processes, or technology.
The definition of Threat-Informed Defense is “the systematic application of a deep understanding of adversary tradecraft and technology to improve defenses.” This approach is closely related to risk management as it encourages the prioritization of defensive investments based on potential impact and the probability of occurrence. Threat-Informed Defense differs from traditional risk management in that it prioritizes the likelihood of a threat occurring and informs that probability from real-world observations of actual adversary tradecraft. Informing a defensive posture with real threat information is a way to ground the probability estimation in evidence. To further maximize the return on threat-driven investments, Threat-Informed Defense encourages the use of threat information that is common across adversaries and time rather than simply reacting to easily changed indicators of malicious activity. The goal is to leverage knowledge of real adversary behavior and probability of attacks to provide a lens through which to prioritize security investments – whether they be in people, processes, or technology.


Leveraging ATT&CK [#f1]_
-------------------------

There are many types of threat information, and many sources from which to learn about threats. MITRE’s ATT&CK® provides a convenient aggregation of publicly reported TTPs
used by adversaries and other valuable information about how to detect and mitigate them. It has become a common way to categorize and refer to adversary TTPs across the
community, which enables more widespread and efficient collaboration on cyber threat intelligence. By documenting adversarial activity at the TTP level, ATT&CK helps defenders
think about threats at a level of abstraction that is concrete enough to be actionable, while also being abstract enough to stay relatively stable over time and across
adversaries. This combination of stability and actionability creates great potential for a high return on investment when defending against those threats.
There are many types of threat information and many sources from which to learn about threats. MITRE ATT&CK® provides a convenient aggregation of publicly reported TTPs used by adversaries and other valuable information about how to detect and mitigate them. It has become a common way to categorize and refer to adversary TTPs across the community, which enables more widespread and efficient collaboration on cyber threat intelligence. By documenting adversarial activity at the TTP level, ATT&CK helps defenders think about threats at a level of abstraction that is concrete enough to be actionable, while also being abstract enough to stay relatively stable over time and across adversaries. This combination of stability and actionability creates great potential for a high return on investment when defending against those threats.

.. figure:: _static/att&ckimg.png
:alt: MITRE ATT&CK Framework
:align: center

ATT&CK Framework

David Bianco famously depicted this potential with his “Pyramid of Pain" [#f2]_ , which illustrates how difficult it is for an adversary to evade a defense that is informed
by,
and
effective against, different types of indicators. In the Pyramid of Pain, indicators such as IP addresses, hash values, and domain names are shown to be easy for an adversary
to alter and thus evade defenses that are dependent on them. However, TTPs are positioned at the top of the pyramid, reflecting the difficulty an adversary would have if a
defender was effectively detecting and mitigating at that level.
David Bianco famously depicted this potential with his “Pyramid of Pain ”, which illustrates how difficult it is for an adversary to evade a defense that is informed by, and effective against, different levels of information about adversary tradecraft. In the Pyramid of Pain, indicators such as IP addresses, hash values, and domain names are shown to be easy for an adversary to alter and thus evade defenses that are dependent on them. However, TTPs are positioned at the top of the pyramid, reflecting the difficulty an adversary would have if a defender was effectively detecting and mitigating at that level.

.. figure:: _static/pyramidofpain.png
:alt: Pyramid of Pain
:align: center

Pyramid of Pain


Threat-Informed Defense focuses on understanding the main adversaries that are most relevant to an organization, based on industry, geography, and other factors. From there,
ATT&CK allows practitioners to understand the specific behaviors associated with those adversaries. In this way, using ATT&CK as the foundation enables practitioners to focus
their efforts on a very specific, prioritized set of adversary behaviors and those associated TTPs, optimizing their defensive program to those most likely or most impactful
threats.
Threat-Informed Defense focuses on understanding the adversaries that are most relevant to an organization, based on industry, geography, and other factors. From there, ATT&CK allows practitioners to understand the specific behaviors associated with those adversaries. In this way, using ATT&CK as the foundation enables practitioners to focus their efforts on a very specific, prioritized set of adversary behaviors and those associated TTPs, optimizing their defensive program to those most likely or most impactful threats.


A Continuous Process
--------------------

An effective Threat-Informed Defense must keep pace with the evolving IT environment, changing security capabilities, and threats. New versions of software and operating
systems introduce new patches to old vulnerabilities, new auditing capabilities, new benign activities that might cause false positives, and unfortunately new attack surfaces
and unintended vulnerabilities. Security vendors and products are also evolving. These constant updates, reconfigurations, and other changes mean that organizations must
constantly maintain awareness of their IT environment, their attack surface, and their data collection and detection capabilities. Changes to the environment must be accounted
for to ensure that changes did not create new attack surfaces, gaps, or otherwise invalidate current defensive capabilities.
An effective Threat-Informed Defense must keep pace with the evolving IT environment, changing security capabilities, and threats. New versions of software and operating systems introduce new patches to old vulnerabilities, new auditing capabilities, new benign activities that might cause false positives, and unfortunately new attack surfaces and unintended vulnerabilities. Security vendors and products are also evolving. These constant updates, reconfigurations, and other changes mean that organizations must constantly maintain awareness of their IT environment, their attack surface, and their data collection and detection capabilities. Changes to the environment must be accounted for to ensure that changes did not create new attack surfaces, gaps, or otherwise invalidate current defensive capabilities.

Of course, the adversaries are not content to stand still and are relentlessly creating new infrastructure, tools, exploitations, and tradecraft to continue their operations
despite improvements in security. These many elements change simultaneously to create a very dynamic cybersecurity landscape, so defenders must work diligently to stay
current. Yesterday’s security posture assessment may already be outdated. Understanding threat information reported from other targeted organizations and analyzing threat
behaviors at the right level of abstraction are key elements to optimizing a defender’s ability to keep pace with, or even get ahead of, the adversary.
Of course, the adversaries are not content to stand still and are relentlessly creating new infrastructure, tools, exploitations, and tradecraft. Adversaries will continue to use known, effective tradecraft as long as we remain vulnerable to it, reserving their novel capabilities to continue their operations despite improvements in security. This reinforces the need to proactively secure against known adversary behavior to increase their cost to attack. These many elements of change, our own and the adversary’s, simultaneously create a dynamic cybersecurity landscape, so defenders must work diligently to stay current. Yesterday’s security posture assessment may already be outdated. Understanding threat information reported from other targeted organizations and analyzing threat behaviors at the right level of abstraction are key elements to optimizing a defender’s ability to keep pace with, or even get ahead of, the adversary..


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