Project Meeting 2025.01.09

Agenda

• Admin
  • Phase 10A - econometrically consistent simulation

Administrative

• Phase 10A - Econometrically consistent simulation task
  • Has been discussion via e-mail and edits to scope
  • Design task; will have goals; but scope may not be able to articulate everything
  • To finalize scope:
    • Need to align on why we are doing this task
    • Articulate hierarchy of priorities for achieving goals
    • Figure how to organize ourselves to tackle priorities
  • Why we are doing this
    • How Monte Carlo simulation is implemented is dependent on the order of the alternatives; because of this we can get unintuitive results - some things change that shouldn't (a lot of simulation noise) when nothing changed for the deterministic components of the model
    • We should improve the way we are doing it, even if the improvement isn't perfect
    • Desired outcome: Changes in deterministic elements of the model should drive changes in results
  • The various approaches need to be explored and thought through; stress tested
  • What are our priorities: where should effort be expended
    • The various approaches need to be explored and thought through; stress tested
    • First priority: Understand what is the most theoretically best way of doing it
      • May need to make this priority more clear in the SOW
    • Second priority: Once you have theoretically defensible solution, identify the complications to implementing the solution
    • Third priority: Identify best implementable solution
    • Fourth priority: Feedback and guidance on users and use cases; providing users flexibility in whether it is implemented
  • How to organize ourselves to tackle priorities
  • Edits to SOW by next Tuesday
    • Put budget into table that can copied into each team's contract