Modelling_Data_preparation.ipynb

{
 "cells": [
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "For the modelling dataset, the following transformations were implemented:\n",
    "- the date was set as 'index' \n",
    "- the column header was tagged station names\n",
    "- the average temperature column was added for the respective years."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 1,
   "id": "268994d7",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# import libraries\n",
    "import pandas as pd\n",
    "import warnings\n",
    "\n",
    "warnings.filterwarnings('ignore', category=FutureWarning)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 2,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
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       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>STATION</th>\n",
       "      <th>LATITUDE</th>\n",
       "      <th>LONGITUDE</th>\n",
       "      <th>ELEVATION</th>\n",
       "      <th>COUNTRY</th>\n",
       "      <th>1980-01-01 00:00:00</th>\n",
       "      <th>1980-01-02 00:00:00</th>\n",
       "      <th>1980-01-03 00:00:00</th>\n",
       "      <th>1980-01-04 00:00:00</th>\n",
       "      <th>1980-01-05 00:00:00</th>\n",
       "      <th>...</th>\n",
       "      <th>2022-12-22 00:00:00</th>\n",
       "      <th>2022-12-23 00:00:00</th>\n",
       "      <th>2022-12-24 00:00:00</th>\n",
       "      <th>2022-12-25 00:00:00</th>\n",
       "      <th>2022-12-26 00:00:00</th>\n",
       "      <th>2022-12-27 00:00:00</th>\n",
       "      <th>2022-12-28 00:00:00</th>\n",
       "      <th>2022-12-29 00:00:00</th>\n",
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       "      <td>UV000005502</td>\n",
       "      <td>13.580</td>\n",
       "      <td>-2.430</td>\n",
       "      <td>340.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>Burkina Faso</td>\n",
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       "      <td>24.44</td>\n",
       "      <td>24.44</td>\n",
       "      <td>23.33</td>\n",
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       "      <td>UV000005507</td>\n",
       "      <td>12.070</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.350</td>\n",
       "      <td>301.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>Burkina Faso</td>\n",
       "      <td>24.44</td>\n",
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       "      <td>24.44</td>\n",
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       "      <td>23.33</td>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2</th>\n",
       "      <td>UV000005522</td>\n",
       "      <td>10.330</td>\n",
       "      <td>-3.180</td>\n",
       "      <td>333.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>Burkina Faso</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.67</td>\n",
       "      <td>27.22</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.11</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.11</td>\n",
       "      <td>27.22</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.00</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.00</td>\n",
       "      <td>23.89</td>\n",
       "      <td>23.33</td>\n",
       "      <td>22.78</td>\n",
       "      <td>24.44</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.56</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.56</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.56</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.00</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>3</th>\n",
       "      <td>UV000065501</td>\n",
       "      <td>14.033</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.033</td>\n",
       "      <td>277.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>Burkina Faso</td>\n",
       "      <td>21.67</td>\n",
       "      <td>24.44</td>\n",
       "      <td>22.78</td>\n",
       "      <td>23.33</td>\n",
       "      <td>23.89</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>32.22</td>\n",
       "      <td>32.22</td>\n",
       "      <td>32.22</td>\n",
       "      <td>32.22</td>\n",
       "      <td>32.22</td>\n",
       "      <td>32.22</td>\n",
       "      <td>32.22</td>\n",
       "      <td>32.22</td>\n",
       "      <td>32.22</td>\n",
       "      <td>32.22</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>4</th>\n",
       "      <td>UV000065516</td>\n",
       "      <td>11.750</td>\n",
       "      <td>-2.933</td>\n",
       "      <td>271.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>Burkina Faso</td>\n",
       "      <td>24.44</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.11</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.00</td>\n",
       "      <td>24.44</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.56</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>23.89</td>\n",
       "      <td>23.89</td>\n",
       "      <td>22.78</td>\n",
       "      <td>22.78</td>\n",
       "      <td>22.22</td>\n",
       "      <td>24.44</td>\n",
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       "      <td>23.89</td>\n",
       "      <td>23.33</td>\n",
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       "<p>5 rows × 15711 columns</p>\n",
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      ],
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       "       STATION  LATITUDE  LONGITUDE  ELEVATION       COUNTRY  \\\n",
       "0  UV000005502    13.580     -2.430      340.0  Burkina Faso   \n",
       "1  UV000005507    12.070      0.350      301.0  Burkina Faso   \n",
       "2  UV000005522    10.330     -3.180      333.0  Burkina Faso   \n",
       "3  UV000065501    14.033     -0.033      277.0  Burkina Faso   \n",
       "4  UV000065516    11.750     -2.933      271.0  Burkina Faso   \n",
       "\n",
       "   1980-01-01 00:00:00  1980-01-02 00:00:00  1980-01-03 00:00:00  \\\n",
       "0                23.89                24.44                24.44   \n",
       "1                24.44                24.44                25.00   \n",
       "2                26.67                27.22                26.11   \n",
       "3                21.67                24.44                22.78   \n",
       "4                24.44                26.11                25.00   \n",
       "\n",
       "   1980-01-04 00:00:00  1980-01-05 00:00:00  ...  2022-12-22 00:00:00  \\\n",
       "0                23.33                23.89  ...                24.44   \n",
       "1                25.00                25.56  ...                23.33   \n",
       "2                26.11                27.22  ...                25.00   \n",
       "3                23.33                23.89  ...                32.22   \n",
       "4                24.44                25.56  ...                23.89   \n",
       "\n",
       "   2022-12-23 00:00:00  2022-12-24 00:00:00  2022-12-25 00:00:00  \\\n",
       "0                23.33                23.33                23.33   \n",
       "1                23.33                22.78                22.78   \n",
       "2                25.00                23.89                23.33   \n",
       "3                32.22                32.22                32.22   \n",
       "4                23.89                22.78                22.78   \n",
       "\n",
       "   2022-12-26 00:00:00  2022-12-27 00:00:00  2022-12-28 00:00:00  \\\n",
       "0                22.78                25.00                25.56   \n",
       "1                22.78                24.44                25.00   \n",
       "2                22.78                24.44                25.56   \n",
       "3                32.22                32.22                32.22   \n",
       "4                22.22                24.44                25.00   \n",
       "\n",
       "   2022-12-29 00:00:00  2022-12-30 00:00:00  2022-12-31 00:00:00  \n",
       "0                25.00                25.00                24.44  \n",
       "1                24.44                24.44                23.33  \n",
       "2                25.56                25.56                25.00  \n",
       "3                32.22                32.22                32.22  \n",
       "4                25.00                23.89                23.33  \n",
       "\n",
       "[5 rows x 15711 columns]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 2,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "# load the dataset\n",
    "df = pd.read_csv('West_Africa_temperature_1980_2022.csv')\n",
    "df.head()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 3,
   "id": "9e1b381e",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
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       "      <th>STATION</th>\n",
       "      <td>UV000005502</td>\n",
       "      <td>UV000005507</td>\n",
       "      <td>UV000005522</td>\n",
       "      <td>UV000065501</td>\n",
       "      <td>UV000065516</td>\n",
       "      <td>UVM00065503</td>\n",
       "      <td>UVM00065510</td>\n",
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       "      <td>GV000001832</td>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>LATITUDE</th>\n",
       "      <td>13.58</td>\n",
       "      <td>12.07</td>\n",
       "      <td>10.33</td>\n",
       "      <td>14.033</td>\n",
       "      <td>11.75</td>\n",
       "      <td>12.353</td>\n",
       "      <td>11.16</td>\n",
       "      <td>11.15</td>\n",
       "      <td>6.13</td>\n",
       "      <td>6.65</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>14.147</td>\n",
       "      <td>12.556</td>\n",
       "      <td>12.41</td>\n",
       "      <td>12.883</td>\n",
       "      <td>12.572</td>\n",
       "      <td>8.617</td>\n",
       "      <td>6.234</td>\n",
       "      <td>5.605</td>\n",
       "      <td>16.741</td>\n",
       "      <td>9.57</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>LONGITUDE</th>\n",
       "      <td>-2.43</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.35</td>\n",
       "      <td>-3.18</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.033</td>\n",
       "      <td>-2.933</td>\n",
       "      <td>-1.512</td>\n",
       "      <td>-4.331</td>\n",
       "      <td>-1.15</td>\n",
       "      <td>-5.95</td>\n",
       "      <td>-4.7</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>-16.051</td>\n",
       "      <td>-16.282</td>\n",
       "      <td>-16.746</td>\n",
       "      <td>-14.967</td>\n",
       "      <td>-12.22</td>\n",
       "      <td>-13.2</td>\n",
       "      <td>-10.362</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.167</td>\n",
       "      <td>-22.949</td>\n",
       "      <td>-13.62</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>ELEVATION</th>\n",
       "      <td>340.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>301.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>333.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>277.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>271.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>316.1</td>\n",
       "      <td>460.6</td>\n",
       "      <td>322.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>205.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>110.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>7.9</td>\n",
       "      <td>22.9</td>\n",
       "      <td>15.8</td>\n",
       "      <td>10.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>178.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>27.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>9.4</td>\n",
       "      <td>62.5</td>\n",
       "      <td>53.9</td>\n",
       "      <td>46.0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>COUNTRY</th>\n",
       "      <td>Burkina Faso</td>\n",
       "      <td>Burkina Faso</td>\n",
       "      <td>Burkina Faso</td>\n",
       "      <td>Burkina Faso</td>\n",
       "      <td>Burkina Faso</td>\n",
       "      <td>Burkina Faso</td>\n",
       "      <td>Burkina Faso</td>\n",
       "      <td>Burkina Faso</td>\n",
       "      <td>Ivory Coast</td>\n",
       "      <td>Ivory Coast</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>Senegal</td>\n",
       "      <td>Senegal</td>\n",
       "      <td>Senegal</td>\n",
       "      <td>Senegal</td>\n",
       "      <td>Senegal</td>\n",
       "      <td>Sierra Leone</td>\n",
       "      <td>Liberia</td>\n",
       "      <td>Ghana</td>\n",
       "      <td>Cape Verde</td>\n",
       "      <td>Guinea</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>...</th>\n",
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       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2022-12-27 00:00:00</th>\n",
       "      <td>25.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>24.44</td>\n",
       "      <td>24.44</td>\n",
       "      <td>32.22</td>\n",
       "      <td>24.44</td>\n",
       "      <td>24.44</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.56</td>\n",
       "      <td>23.89</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.56</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.11</td>\n",
       "      <td>23.33</td>\n",
       "      <td>22.78</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.56</td>\n",
       "      <td>28.33</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.67</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.67</td>\n",
       "      <td>27.78</td>\n",
       "      <td>21.67</td>\n",
       "      <td>28.33</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2022-12-28 00:00:00</th>\n",
       "      <td>25.56</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.56</td>\n",
       "      <td>32.22</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.11</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.56</td>\n",
       "      <td>27.22</td>\n",
       "      <td>27.78</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>23.89</td>\n",
       "      <td>22.78</td>\n",
       "      <td>22.78</td>\n",
       "      <td>23.89</td>\n",
       "      <td>28.33</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.67</td>\n",
       "      <td>29.44</td>\n",
       "      <td>28.89</td>\n",
       "      <td>22.22</td>\n",
       "      <td>28.33</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2022-12-29 00:00:00</th>\n",
       "      <td>25.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>24.44</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.56</td>\n",
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       "      <td>27.22</td>\n",
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       "      <td>23.33</td>\n",
       "      <td>22.78</td>\n",
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       "      <td>27.22</td>\n",
       "      <td>27.22</td>\n",
       "      <td>28.33</td>\n",
       "      <td>22.22</td>\n",
       "      <td>27.22</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2022-12-30 00:00:00</th>\n",
       "      <td>25.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>24.44</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.56</td>\n",
       "      <td>32.22</td>\n",
       "      <td>23.89</td>\n",
       "      <td>24.44</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.56</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.56</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.56</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.11</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.11</td>\n",
       "      <td>22.78</td>\n",
       "      <td>23.33</td>\n",
       "      <td>22.22</td>\n",
       "      <td>24.44</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.67</td>\n",
       "      <td>28.89</td>\n",
       "      <td>28.89</td>\n",
       "      <td>22.22</td>\n",
       "      <td>28.33</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2022-12-31 00:00:00</th>\n",
       "      <td>24.44</td>\n",
       "      <td>23.33</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>32.22</td>\n",
       "      <td>23.33</td>\n",
       "      <td>24.44</td>\n",
       "      <td>24.44</td>\n",
       "      <td>24.44</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.67</td>\n",
       "      <td>24.44</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.67</td>\n",
       "      <td>24.44</td>\n",
       "      <td>24.44</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.56</td>\n",
       "      <td>27.22</td>\n",
       "      <td>27.22</td>\n",
       "      <td>28.89</td>\n",
       "      <td>27.78</td>\n",
       "      <td>22.22</td>\n",
       "      <td>28.33</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "<p>15711 rows × 72 columns</p>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "                               0             1             2             3   \\\n",
       "STATION               UV000005502   UV000005507   UV000005522   UV000065501   \n",
       "LATITUDE                    13.58         12.07         10.33        14.033   \n",
       "LONGITUDE                   -2.43          0.35         -3.18        -0.033   \n",
       "ELEVATION                   340.0         301.0         333.0         277.0   \n",
       "COUNTRY              Burkina Faso  Burkina Faso  Burkina Faso  Burkina Faso   \n",
       "...                           ...           ...           ...           ...   \n",
       "2022-12-27 00:00:00          25.0         24.44         24.44         32.22   \n",
       "2022-12-28 00:00:00         25.56          25.0         25.56         32.22   \n",
       "2022-12-29 00:00:00          25.0         24.44         25.56         32.22   \n",
       "2022-12-30 00:00:00          25.0         24.44         25.56         32.22   \n",
       "2022-12-31 00:00:00         24.44         23.33          25.0         32.22   \n",
       "\n",
       "                               4             5             6             7   \\\n",
       "STATION               UV000065516   UVM00065503   UVM00065510   UVM00065518   \n",
       "LATITUDE                    11.75        12.353         11.16         11.15   \n",
       "LONGITUDE                  -2.933        -1.512        -4.331         -1.15   \n",
       "ELEVATION                   271.0         316.1         460.6         322.0   \n",
       "COUNTRY              Burkina Faso  Burkina Faso  Burkina Faso  Burkina Faso   \n",
       "...                           ...           ...           ...           ...   \n",
       "2022-12-27 00:00:00         24.44         24.44         25.56         23.89   \n",
       "2022-12-28 00:00:00          25.0          25.0         26.11         25.56   \n",
       "2022-12-29 00:00:00          25.0         25.56         26.11         25.56   \n",
       "2022-12-30 00:00:00         23.89         24.44         25.56         25.56   \n",
       "2022-12-31 00:00:00         23.33         24.44         24.44         24.44   \n",
       "\n",
       "                              8            9   ...           62           63  \\\n",
       "STATION              IV000005557  IV000005562  ...  SGM00061679  SGM00061695   \n",
       "LATITUDE                    6.13         6.65  ...       14.147       12.556   \n",
       "LONGITUDE                  -5.95         -4.7  ...      -16.051      -16.282   \n",
       "ELEVATION                  205.0        110.0  ...          7.9         22.9   \n",
       "COUNTRY              Ivory Coast  Ivory Coast  ...      Senegal      Senegal   \n",
       "...                          ...          ...  ...          ...          ...   \n",
       "2022-12-27 00:00:00         25.0        25.56  ...        26.11        23.33   \n",
       "2022-12-28 00:00:00        27.22        27.78  ...        23.89        22.78   \n",
       "2022-12-29 00:00:00        26.67        27.22  ...        24.44        23.33   \n",
       "2022-12-30 00:00:00        25.56        26.11  ...        26.11        22.78   \n",
       "2022-12-31 00:00:00        26.67        24.44  ...        26.67        24.44   \n",
       "\n",
       "                              64           65           66            67  \\\n",
       "STATION              SGM00061697  SGM00061698  SGM00061699   SL000061856   \n",
       "LATITUDE                   12.41       12.883       12.572         8.617   \n",
       "LONGITUDE                -16.746      -14.967       -12.22         -13.2   \n",
       "ELEVATION                   15.8         10.0        178.0          27.0   \n",
       "COUNTRY                  Senegal      Senegal      Senegal  Sierra Leone   \n",
       "...                          ...          ...          ...           ...   \n",
       "2022-12-27 00:00:00        22.78        25.56        28.33         26.67   \n",
       "2022-12-28 00:00:00        22.78        23.89        28.33         26.67   \n",
       "2022-12-29 00:00:00        22.78        24.44        23.89         27.22   \n",
       "2022-12-30 00:00:00        23.33        22.22        24.44         26.67   \n",
       "2022-12-31 00:00:00        24.44        25.56        27.22         27.22   \n",
       "\n",
       "                              68           69           70           71  \n",
       "STATION              LIM00065660  GHM00065472  CVM00008594  GV000001832  \n",
       "LATITUDE                   6.234        5.605       16.741         9.57  \n",
       "LONGITUDE                -10.362       -0.167      -22.949       -13.62  \n",
       "ELEVATION                    9.4         62.5         53.9         46.0  \n",
       "COUNTRY                  Liberia        Ghana   Cape Verde       Guinea  \n",
       "...                          ...          ...          ...          ...  \n",
       "2022-12-27 00:00:00        26.67        27.78        21.67        28.33  \n",
       "2022-12-28 00:00:00        29.44        28.89        22.22        28.33  \n",
       "2022-12-29 00:00:00        27.22        28.33        22.22        27.22  \n",
       "2022-12-30 00:00:00        28.89        28.89        22.22        28.33  \n",
       "2022-12-31 00:00:00        28.89        27.78        22.22        28.33  \n",
       "\n",
       "[15711 rows x 72 columns]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 3,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "# Transpose the DataFrame\n",
    "df = df.T\n",
    "df"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 4,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# Reset index to default integer index and set the second row as the header\n",
    "df = df.reset_index()\n",
    "\n",
    "# Extract the header from the first row\n",
    "new_header = df.iloc[0]"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 5,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/html": [
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       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>index</th>\n",
       "      <th>0</th>\n",
       "      <th>1</th>\n",
       "      <th>2</th>\n",
       "      <th>3</th>\n",
       "      <th>4</th>\n",
       "      <th>5</th>\n",
       "      <th>6</th>\n",
       "      <th>7</th>\n",
       "      <th>8</th>\n",
       "      <th>...</th>\n",
       "      <th>62</th>\n",
       "      <th>63</th>\n",
       "      <th>64</th>\n",
       "      <th>65</th>\n",
       "      <th>66</th>\n",
       "      <th>67</th>\n",
       "      <th>68</th>\n",
       "      <th>69</th>\n",
       "      <th>70</th>\n",
       "      <th>71</th>\n",
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       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>0</th>\n",
       "      <td>1980-01-01 00:00:00</td>\n",
       "      <td>23.89</td>\n",
       "      <td>24.44</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.67</td>\n",
       "      <td>21.67</td>\n",
       "      <td>24.44</td>\n",
       "      <td>23.33</td>\n",
       "      <td>24.44</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.67</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.56</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.67</td>\n",
       "      <td>23.33</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.67</td>\n",
       "      <td>28.89</td>\n",
       "      <td>30.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.67</td>\n",
       "      <td>27.78</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.11</td>\n",
       "      <td>21.67</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.11</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1</th>\n",
       "      <td>1980-01-02 00:00:00</td>\n",
       "      <td>24.44</td>\n",
       "      <td>24.44</td>\n",
       "      <td>27.22</td>\n",
       "      <td>24.44</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.11</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.11</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.67</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.56</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.67</td>\n",
       "      <td>24.44</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.67</td>\n",
       "      <td>27.78</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.11</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.67</td>\n",
       "      <td>27.78</td>\n",
       "      <td>28.89</td>\n",
       "      <td>22.22</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.11</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2</th>\n",
       "      <td>1980-01-03 00:00:00</td>\n",
       "      <td>24.44</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.11</td>\n",
       "      <td>22.78</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.56</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.67</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.11</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.67</td>\n",
       "      <td>23.33</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.67</td>\n",
       "      <td>28.89</td>\n",
       "      <td>27.78</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.67</td>\n",
       "      <td>27.78</td>\n",
       "      <td>28.89</td>\n",
       "      <td>21.11</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.11</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>3</th>\n",
       "      <td>1980-01-04 00:00:00</td>\n",
       "      <td>23.33</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.11</td>\n",
       "      <td>23.33</td>\n",
       "      <td>24.44</td>\n",
       "      <td>24.44</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.67</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.67</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.67</td>\n",
       "      <td>21.67</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.67</td>\n",
       "      <td>23.33</td>\n",
       "      <td>28.33</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.67</td>\n",
       "      <td>27.78</td>\n",
       "      <td>28.89</td>\n",
       "      <td>21.67</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.11</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>4</th>\n",
       "      <td>1980-01-05 00:00:00</td>\n",
       "      <td>23.89</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.56</td>\n",
       "      <td>27.22</td>\n",
       "      <td>23.89</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.56</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.56</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.67</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.67</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.11</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>24.44</td>\n",
       "      <td>24.44</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.67</td>\n",
       "      <td>23.33</td>\n",
       "      <td>27.22</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.67</td>\n",
       "      <td>27.78</td>\n",
       "      <td>28.89</td>\n",
       "      <td>21.67</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.11</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>...</th>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>15701</th>\n",
       "      <td>2022-12-27 00:00:00</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>24.44</td>\n",
       "      <td>24.44</td>\n",
       "      <td>32.22</td>\n",
       "      <td>24.44</td>\n",
       "      <td>24.44</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.56</td>\n",
       "      <td>23.89</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.11</td>\n",
       "      <td>23.33</td>\n",
       "      <td>22.78</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.56</td>\n",
       "      <td>28.33</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.67</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.67</td>\n",
       "      <td>27.78</td>\n",
       "      <td>21.67</td>\n",
       "      <td>28.33</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>15702</th>\n",
       "      <td>2022-12-28 00:00:00</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.56</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.56</td>\n",
       "      <td>32.22</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.11</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.56</td>\n",
       "      <td>27.22</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>23.89</td>\n",
       "      <td>22.78</td>\n",
       "      <td>22.78</td>\n",
       "      <td>23.89</td>\n",
       "      <td>28.33</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.67</td>\n",
       "      <td>29.44</td>\n",
       "      <td>28.89</td>\n",
       "      <td>22.22</td>\n",
       "      <td>28.33</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>15703</th>\n",
       "      <td>2022-12-29 00:00:00</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>24.44</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.56</td>\n",
       "      <td>32.22</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.56</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.11</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.56</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.67</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>24.44</td>\n",
       "      <td>23.33</td>\n",
       "      <td>22.78</td>\n",
       "      <td>24.44</td>\n",
       "      <td>23.89</td>\n",
       "      <td>27.22</td>\n",
       "      <td>27.22</td>\n",
       "      <td>28.33</td>\n",
       "      <td>22.22</td>\n",
       "      <td>27.22</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>15704</th>\n",
       "      <td>2022-12-30 00:00:00</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>24.44</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.56</td>\n",
       "      <td>32.22</td>\n",
       "      <td>23.89</td>\n",
       "      <td>24.44</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.56</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.56</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.56</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.11</td>\n",
       "      <td>22.78</td>\n",
       "      <td>23.33</td>\n",
       "      <td>22.22</td>\n",
       "      <td>24.44</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.67</td>\n",
       "      <td>28.89</td>\n",
       "      <td>28.89</td>\n",
       "      <td>22.22</td>\n",
       "      <td>28.33</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>15705</th>\n",
       "      <td>2022-12-31 00:00:00</td>\n",
       "      <td>24.44</td>\n",
       "      <td>23.33</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>32.22</td>\n",
       "      <td>23.33</td>\n",
       "      <td>24.44</td>\n",
       "      <td>24.44</td>\n",
       "      <td>24.44</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.67</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.67</td>\n",
       "      <td>24.44</td>\n",
       "      <td>24.44</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.56</td>\n",
       "      <td>27.22</td>\n",
       "      <td>27.22</td>\n",
       "      <td>28.89</td>\n",
       "      <td>27.78</td>\n",
       "      <td>22.22</td>\n",
       "      <td>28.33</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "<p>15706 rows × 73 columns</p>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "                     index      0      1      2      3      4      5      6  \\\n",
       "0      1980-01-01 00:00:00  23.89  24.44  26.67  21.67  24.44  23.33  24.44   \n",
       "1      1980-01-02 00:00:00  24.44  24.44  27.22  24.44  26.11   25.0  26.11   \n",
       "2      1980-01-03 00:00:00  24.44   25.0  26.11  22.78   25.0  25.56   25.0   \n",
       "3      1980-01-04 00:00:00  23.33   25.0  26.11  23.33  24.44  24.44   25.0   \n",
       "4      1980-01-05 00:00:00  23.89  25.56  27.22  23.89  25.56  25.56  26.67   \n",
       "...                    ...    ...    ...    ...    ...    ...    ...    ...   \n",
       "15701  2022-12-27 00:00:00   25.0  24.44  24.44  32.22  24.44  24.44  25.56   \n",
       "15702  2022-12-28 00:00:00  25.56   25.0  25.56  32.22   25.0   25.0  26.11   \n",
       "15703  2022-12-29 00:00:00   25.0  24.44  25.56  32.22   25.0  25.56  26.11   \n",
       "15704  2022-12-30 00:00:00   25.0  24.44  25.56  32.22  23.89  24.44  25.56   \n",
       "15705  2022-12-31 00:00:00  24.44  23.33   25.0  32.22  23.33  24.44  24.44   \n",
       "\n",
       "           7      8  ...     62     63     64     65     66     67     68  \\\n",
       "0      26.67  25.56  ...  26.67  23.33  26.67  28.89   30.0  26.67  27.78   \n",
       "1      26.67  25.56  ...  26.67  24.44  26.67  27.78  26.11  26.67  27.78   \n",
       "2      26.67  26.11  ...  26.67  23.33  26.67  28.89  27.78  26.67  27.78   \n",
       "3      26.67  26.67  ...  26.67  21.67  26.67  23.33  28.33  26.67  27.78   \n",
       "4      26.67  26.11  ...  24.44  24.44  26.67  23.33  27.22  26.67  27.78   \n",
       "...      ...    ...  ...    ...    ...    ...    ...    ...    ...    ...   \n",
       "15701  23.89   25.0  ...  26.11  23.33  22.78  25.56  28.33  26.67  26.67   \n",
       "15702  25.56  27.22  ...  23.89  22.78  22.78  23.89  28.33  26.67  29.44   \n",
       "15703  25.56  26.67  ...  24.44  23.33  22.78  24.44  23.89  27.22  27.22   \n",
       "15704  25.56  25.56  ...  26.11  22.78  23.33  22.22  24.44  26.67  28.89   \n",
       "15705  24.44  26.67  ...  26.67  24.44  24.44  25.56  27.22  27.22  28.89   \n",
       "\n",
       "          69     70     71  \n",
       "0      26.11  21.67  26.11  \n",
       "1      28.89  22.22  26.11  \n",
       "2      28.89  21.11  26.11  \n",
       "3      28.89  21.67  26.11  \n",
       "4      28.89  21.67  26.11  \n",
       "...      ...    ...    ...  \n",
       "15701  27.78  21.67  28.33  \n",
       "15702  28.89  22.22  28.33  \n",
       "15703  28.33  22.22  27.22  \n",
       "15704  28.89  22.22  28.33  \n",
       "15705  27.78  22.22  28.33  \n",
       "\n",
       "[15706 rows x 73 columns]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 5,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "# Drop the first 5 rows and reset the index\n",
    "df = df[5:].reset_index(drop=True)\n",
    "df"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 6,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# Convert the 'index' column to datetime\n",
    "df['index'] = pd.to_datetime(df['index'])"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 7,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# Assuming you have column headers stored in a variable\n",
    "column_headers = [\"date\"] + list(new_header[1:])\n",
    "\n",
    "# Rename the columns\n",
    "df.columns = column_headers"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 8,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# Set the 'date' column as the DataFrame index\n",
    "df.set_index('date', inplace=True)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 9,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# Add \"avg_temp\" column for all stations\n",
    "df[\"avg_temp\"]=df.mean(axis=1)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 10,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/html": [
       "<div>\n",
       "<style scoped>\n",
       "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
       "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
       "        vertical-align: top;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
       "        text-align: right;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "</style>\n",
       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>UV000005502</th>\n",
       "      <th>UV000005507</th>\n",
       "      <th>UV000005522</th>\n",
       "      <th>UV000065501</th>\n",
       "      <th>UV000065516</th>\n",
       "      <th>UVM00065503</th>\n",
       "      <th>UVM00065510</th>\n",
       "      <th>UVM00065518</th>\n",
       "      <th>IV000005557</th>\n",
       "      <th>IV000005562</th>\n",
       "      <th>...</th>\n",
       "      <th>SGM00061695</th>\n",
       "      <th>SGM00061697</th>\n",
       "      <th>SGM00061698</th>\n",
       "      <th>SGM00061699</th>\n",
       "      <th>SL000061856</th>\n",
       "      <th>LIM00065660</th>\n",
       "      <th>GHM00065472</th>\n",
       "      <th>CVM00008594</th>\n",
       "      <th>GV000001832</th>\n",
       "      <th>avg_temp</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>date</th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1980-01-01</th>\n",
       "      <td>23.89</td>\n",
       "      <td>24.44</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.67</td>\n",
       "      <td>21.67</td>\n",
       "      <td>24.44</td>\n",
       "      <td>23.33</td>\n",
       "      <td>24.44</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.67</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.56</td>\n",
       "      <td>24.44</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>23.33</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.67</td>\n",
       "      <td>28.89</td>\n",
       "      <td>30.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.67</td>\n",
       "      <td>27.78</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.11</td>\n",
       "      <td>21.67</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.11</td>\n",
       "      <td>24.630000</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1980-01-02</th>\n",
       "      <td>24.44</td>\n",
       "      <td>24.44</td>\n",
       "      <td>27.22</td>\n",
       "      <td>24.44</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.11</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.11</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.67</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.56</td>\n",
       "      <td>27.22</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>24.44</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.67</td>\n",
       "      <td>27.78</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.11</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.67</td>\n",
       "      <td>27.78</td>\n",
       "      <td>28.89</td>\n",
       "      <td>22.22</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.11</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.208750</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1980-01-03</th>\n",
       "      <td>24.44</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.11</td>\n",
       "      <td>22.78</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.56</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.67</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.11</td>\n",
       "      <td>27.22</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>23.33</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.67</td>\n",
       "      <td>28.89</td>\n",
       "      <td>27.78</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.67</td>\n",
       "      <td>27.78</td>\n",
       "      <td>28.89</td>\n",
       "      <td>21.11</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.11</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.409583</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1980-01-04</th>\n",
       "      <td>23.33</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.11</td>\n",
       "      <td>23.33</td>\n",
       "      <td>24.44</td>\n",
       "      <td>24.44</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.67</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.67</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.67</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>21.67</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.67</td>\n",
       "      <td>23.33</td>\n",
       "      <td>28.33</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.67</td>\n",
       "      <td>27.78</td>\n",
       "      <td>28.89</td>\n",
       "      <td>21.67</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.11</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.547778</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1980-01-05</th>\n",
       "      <td>23.89</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.56</td>\n",
       "      <td>27.22</td>\n",
       "      <td>23.89</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.56</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.56</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.67</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.67</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.11</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.67</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>24.44</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.67</td>\n",
       "      <td>23.33</td>\n",
       "      <td>27.22</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.67</td>\n",
       "      <td>27.78</td>\n",
       "      <td>28.89</td>\n",
       "      <td>21.67</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.11</td>\n",
       "      <td>25.339583</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "<p>5 rows × 73 columns</p>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "           UV000005502 UV000005507 UV000005522 UV000065501 UV000065516  \\\n",
       "date                                                                     \n",
       "1980-01-01       23.89       24.44       26.67       21.67       24.44   \n",
       "1980-01-02       24.44       24.44       27.22       24.44       26.11   \n",
       "1980-01-03       24.44        25.0       26.11       22.78        25.0   \n",
       "1980-01-04       23.33        25.0       26.11       23.33       24.44   \n",
       "1980-01-05       23.89       25.56       27.22       23.89       25.56   \n",
       "\n",
       "           UVM00065503 UVM00065510 UVM00065518 IV000005557 IV000005562  ...  \\\n",
       "date                                                                    ...   \n",
       "1980-01-01       23.33       24.44       26.67       25.56       24.44  ...   \n",
       "1980-01-02        25.0       26.11       26.67       25.56       27.22  ...   \n",
       "1980-01-03       25.56        25.0       26.67       26.11       27.22  ...   \n",
       "1980-01-04       24.44        25.0       26.67       26.67       26.67  ...   \n",
       "1980-01-05       25.56       26.67       26.67       26.11       26.67  ...   \n",
       "\n",
       "           SGM00061695 SGM00061697 SGM00061698 SGM00061699 SL000061856  \\\n",
       "date                                                                     \n",
       "1980-01-01       23.33       26.67       28.89        30.0       26.67   \n",
       "1980-01-02       24.44       26.67       27.78       26.11       26.67   \n",
       "1980-01-03       23.33       26.67       28.89       27.78       26.67   \n",
       "1980-01-04       21.67       26.67       23.33       28.33       26.67   \n",
       "1980-01-05       24.44       26.67       23.33       27.22       26.67   \n",
       "\n",
       "           LIM00065660 GHM00065472 CVM00008594 GV000001832   avg_temp  \n",
       "date                                                                   \n",
       "1980-01-01       27.78       26.11       21.67       26.11  24.630000  \n",
       "1980-01-02       27.78       28.89       22.22       26.11  25.208750  \n",
       "1980-01-03       27.78       28.89       21.11       26.11  25.409583  \n",
       "1980-01-04       27.78       28.89       21.67       26.11  25.547778  \n",
       "1980-01-05       27.78       28.89       21.67       26.11  25.339583  \n",
       "\n",
       "[5 rows x 73 columns]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 10,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "# Display the first few rows of the modified DataFrame\n",
    "df.head()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 11,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# save file to csv\n",
    "df.to_csv(\"modelling_data.csv\")"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 12,
   "id": "fe2149d7",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "(15706, 73)"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 12,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "df.shape \n",
    "\n",
    "#there are 365 days in a year. We have data from 1980 to 2022 (42 years). 42 X 365 = 15,000~"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 13,
   "id": "4d179c64",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# Facebook prophet - Fatimah\n",
    "# SARIMAX - Aliyu\n",
    "# ARMA - \n",
    "# ARIMA - Marufdeen\n",
    "# SARIMA - Yusuf"
   ]
  }
 ],
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