-
Notifications
You must be signed in to change notification settings - Fork 4
/
questions-to-live-by.html
492 lines (452 loc) · 48.6 KB
/
questions-to-live-by.html
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
200
201
202
203
204
205
206
207
208
209
210
211
212
213
214
215
216
217
218
219
220
221
222
223
224
225
226
227
228
229
230
231
232
233
234
235
236
237
238
239
240
241
242
243
244
245
246
247
248
249
250
251
252
253
254
255
256
257
258
259
260
261
262
263
264
265
266
267
268
269
270
271
272
273
274
275
276
277
278
279
280
281
282
283
284
285
286
287
288
289
290
291
292
293
294
295
296
297
298
299
300
301
302
303
304
305
306
307
308
309
310
311
312
313
314
315
316
317
318
319
320
321
322
323
324
325
326
327
328
329
330
331
332
333
334
335
336
337
338
339
340
341
342
343
344
345
346
347
348
349
350
351
352
353
354
355
356
357
358
359
360
361
362
363
364
365
366
367
368
369
370
371
372
373
374
375
376
377
378
379
380
381
382
383
384
385
386
387
388
389
390
391
392
393
394
395
396
397
398
399
400
401
402
403
404
405
406
407
408
409
410
411
412
413
414
415
416
417
418
419
420
421
422
423
424
425
426
427
428
429
430
431
432
433
434
435
436
437
438
439
440
441
442
443
444
445
446
447
448
449
450
451
452
453
454
455
456
457
458
459
460
461
462
463
464
465
466
467
468
469
470
471
472
473
474
475
476
477
478
479
480
481
482
483
484
485
486
487
488
489
490
491
492
<!DOCTYPE html>
<html lang="" xml:lang="">
<head>
<meta charset="utf-8" />
<meta http-equiv="X-UA-Compatible" content="IE=edge" />
<title>Chapter 3 Questions To Live By | Probabilistic Reasoning</title>
<meta name="description" content="We explore practical implementations of probabilistic reasoning applied to several domains, especially those in human organizations." />
<meta name="generator" content="bookdown 0.20 and GitBook 2.6.7" />
<meta property="og:title" content="Chapter 3 Questions To Live By | Probabilistic Reasoning" />
<meta property="og:type" content="book" />
<meta property="og:description" content="We explore practical implementations of probabilistic reasoning applied to several domains, especially those in human organizations." />
<meta name="github-repo" content="wgfoote/book-probabilistic-reasoning" />
<meta name="twitter:card" content="summary" />
<meta name="twitter:title" content="Chapter 3 Questions To Live By | Probabilistic Reasoning" />
<meta name="twitter:site" content="@wgfoote" />
<meta name="twitter:description" content="We explore practical implementations of probabilistic reasoning applied to several domains, especially those in human organizations." />
<meta name="author" content="William G. Foote" />
<meta name="date" content="2020-10-17" />
<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1" />
<meta name="apple-mobile-web-app-capable" content="yes" />
<meta name="apple-mobile-web-app-status-bar-style" content="black" />
<link rel="prev" href="probability-for-real-people.html"/>
<link rel="next" href="part-ii-using-r.html"/>
<script src="libs/jquery-2.2.3/jquery.min.js"></script>
<link href="libs/gitbook-2.6.7/css/style.css" rel="stylesheet" />
<link href="libs/gitbook-2.6.7/css/plugin-table.css" rel="stylesheet" />
<link href="libs/gitbook-2.6.7/css/plugin-bookdown.css" rel="stylesheet" />
<link href="libs/gitbook-2.6.7/css/plugin-highlight.css" rel="stylesheet" />
<link href="libs/gitbook-2.6.7/css/plugin-search.css" rel="stylesheet" />
<link href="libs/gitbook-2.6.7/css/plugin-fontsettings.css" rel="stylesheet" />
<link href="libs/gitbook-2.6.7/css/plugin-clipboard.css" rel="stylesheet" />
<style type="text/css">
a.sourceLine { display: inline-block; line-height: 1.25; }
a.sourceLine { pointer-events: none; color: inherit; text-decoration: inherit; }
a.sourceLine:empty { height: 1.2em; }
.sourceCode { overflow: visible; }
code.sourceCode { white-space: pre; position: relative; }
pre.sourceCode { margin: 0; }
@media screen {
div.sourceCode { overflow: auto; }
}
@media print {
code.sourceCode { white-space: pre-wrap; }
a.sourceLine { text-indent: -1em; padding-left: 1em; }
}
pre.numberSource a.sourceLine
{ position: relative; left: -4em; }
pre.numberSource a.sourceLine::before
{ content: attr(title);
position: relative; left: -1em; text-align: right; vertical-align: baseline;
border: none; pointer-events: all; display: inline-block;
-webkit-touch-callout: none; -webkit-user-select: none;
-khtml-user-select: none; -moz-user-select: none;
-ms-user-select: none; user-select: none;
padding: 0 4px; width: 4em;
color: #aaaaaa;
}
pre.numberSource { margin-left: 3em; border-left: 1px solid #aaaaaa; padding-left: 4px; }
div.sourceCode
{ }
@media screen {
a.sourceLine::before { text-decoration: underline; }
}
code span.al { color: #ff0000; font-weight: bold; } /* Alert */
code span.an { color: #60a0b0; font-weight: bold; font-style: italic; } /* Annotation */
code span.at { color: #7d9029; } /* Attribute */
code span.bn { color: #40a070; } /* BaseN */
code span.bu { } /* BuiltIn */
code span.cf { color: #007020; font-weight: bold; } /* ControlFlow */
code span.ch { color: #4070a0; } /* Char */
code span.cn { color: #880000; } /* Constant */
code span.co { color: #60a0b0; font-style: italic; } /* Comment */
code span.cv { color: #60a0b0; font-weight: bold; font-style: italic; } /* CommentVar */
code span.do { color: #ba2121; font-style: italic; } /* Documentation */
code span.dt { color: #902000; } /* DataType */
code span.dv { color: #40a070; } /* DecVal */
code span.er { color: #ff0000; font-weight: bold; } /* Error */
code span.ex { } /* Extension */
code span.fl { color: #40a070; } /* Float */
code span.fu { color: #06287e; } /* Function */
code span.im { } /* Import */
code span.in { color: #60a0b0; font-weight: bold; font-style: italic; } /* Information */
code span.kw { color: #007020; font-weight: bold; } /* Keyword */
code span.op { color: #666666; } /* Operator */
code span.ot { color: #007020; } /* Other */
code span.pp { color: #bc7a00; } /* Preprocessor */
code span.sc { color: #4070a0; } /* SpecialChar */
code span.ss { color: #bb6688; } /* SpecialString */
code span.st { color: #4070a0; } /* String */
code span.va { color: #19177c; } /* Variable */
code span.vs { color: #4070a0; } /* VerbatimString */
code span.wa { color: #60a0b0; font-weight: bold; font-style: italic; } /* Warning */
</style>
<link rel="stylesheet" href="style.css" type="text/css" />
</head>
<body>
<div class="book without-animation with-summary font-size-2 font-family-1" data-basepath=".">
<div class="book-summary">
<nav role="navigation">
<ul class="summary">
<li><a href="./">Probabilistic Reasoning: A Primer</a></li>
<li class="divider"></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="" data-path="index.html"><a href="index.html"><i class="fa fa-check"></i>Preamble</a><ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="" data-path="index.html"><a href="index.html#why-this-book"><i class="fa fa-check"></i>Why this book</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="" data-path="index.html"><a href="index.html#premises"><i class="fa fa-check"></i>Premises</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="" data-path="index.html"><a href="index.html#so-many-questions-and-too-little-time"><i class="fa fa-check"></i>So many questions and too little time</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="" data-path="index.html"><a href="index.html#dont-we-know-everything-we-need-to-know"><i class="fa fa-check"></i>Don’t we know everything we need to know?</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="" data-path="index.html"><a href="index.html#what-we-desire"><i class="fa fa-check"></i>What we desire</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="" data-path="index.html"><a href="index.html#frequentist-or-probabilistic"><i class="fa fa-check"></i>Frequentist or probabilistic?</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="" data-path="index.html"><a href="index.html#a-work-in-progress"><i class="fa fa-check"></i>A work in progress</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="" data-path="part-i-background.html"><a href="part-i-background.html"><i class="fa fa-check"></i>Part I. Background</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="1" data-path="plausibility-probability-and-information.html"><a href="plausibility-probability-and-information.html"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>1</b> Plausibility, Probability and Information</a><ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="1.1" data-path="plausibility-probability-and-information.html"><a href="plausibility-probability-and-information.html#some-surprise"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>1.1</b> Some Surprise</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="1.2" data-path="plausibility-probability-and-information.html"><a href="plausibility-probability-and-information.html#informative"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>1.2</b> Informative?</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="1.3" data-path="plausibility-probability-and-information.html"><a href="plausibility-probability-and-information.html#we-have-a-proposition-for-you"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>1.3</b> We have a proposition for you</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="1.4" data-path="plausibility-probability-and-information.html"><a href="plausibility-probability-and-information.html#the-power-of-plausible-thinking"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>1.4</b> The power of plausible thinking</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="1.5" data-path="plausibility-probability-and-information.html"><a href="plausibility-probability-and-information.html#how-many-ways"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>1.5</b> How many ways?</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="1.6" data-path="plausibility-probability-and-information.html"><a href="plausibility-probability-and-information.html#how-informative"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>1.6</b> How informative?</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="1.7" data-path="plausibility-probability-and-information.html"><a href="plausibility-probability-and-information.html#nota-bene"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>1.7</b> Nota Bene</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="2" data-path="probability-for-real-people.html"><a href="probability-for-real-people.html"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>2</b> Probability for Real People</a><ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="2.1" data-path="probability-for-real-people.html"><a href="probability-for-real-people.html#can-we-rationally-reason"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>2.1</b> Can we rationally reason?</a><ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="2.1.1" data-path="probability-for-real-people.html"><a href="probability-for-real-people.html#priors-what-we-think-can-happen"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>2.1.1</b> Priors: what we think can happen</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="2.1.2" data-path="probability-for-real-people.html"><a href="probability-for-real-people.html#likelihoods-thinking-about-the-data"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>2.1.2</b> Likelihoods: thinking about the data</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="2.1.3" data-path="probability-for-real-people.html"><a href="probability-for-real-people.html#altogether-now"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>2.1.3</b> Altogether now</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="2.1.4" data-path="probability-for-real-people.html"><a href="probability-for-real-people.html#updating-beliefs"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>2.1.4</b> Updating beliefs</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="2.2" data-path="probability-for-real-people.html"><a href="probability-for-real-people.html#whats-next"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>2.2</b> What’s next?</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="3" data-path="questions-to-live-by.html"><a href="questions-to-live-by.html"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>3</b> Questions To Live By</a><ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="3.1" data-path="questions-to-live-by.html"><a href="questions-to-live-by.html#so"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>3.1</b> SO …</a><ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="3.1.1" data-path="questions-to-live-by.html"><a href="questions-to-live-by.html#quaestiones-disputatae"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>3.1.1</b> Quaestiones Disputatae</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="3.1.2" data-path="questions-to-live-by.html"><a href="questions-to-live-by.html#a-bit-long-tldr"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>3.1.2</b> A bit long TL;DR?</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="3.2" data-path="questions-to-live-by.html"><a href="questions-to-live-by.html#situational-vignettes"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>3.2</b> Situational Vignettes</a><ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="3.2.1" data-path="questions-to-live-by.html"><a href="questions-to-live-by.html#the-heinz-dilemma"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>3.2.1</b> The Heinz Dilemma</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="3.2.2" data-path="questions-to-live-by.html"><a href="questions-to-live-by.html#debriefing."><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>3.2.2</b> Debriefing.</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="3.3" data-path="questions-to-live-by.html"><a href="questions-to-live-by.html#methods-of-inquiry"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>3.3</b> Methods of inquiry</a><ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="3.3.1" data-path="questions-to-live-by.html"><a href="questions-to-live-by.html#aristotles-appearances"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>3.3.1</b> Aristotle’s appearances</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="3.3.2" data-path="questions-to-live-by.html"><a href="questions-to-live-by.html#mills-the-economist"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>3.3.2</b> Mills the economist</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="3.3.3" data-path="questions-to-live-by.html"><a href="questions-to-live-by.html#categorical-imperiousness-perhaps"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>3.3.3</b> Categorical imperiousness perhaps</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="3.3.4" data-path="questions-to-live-by.html"><a href="questions-to-live-by.html#the-kitchen-sink"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>3.3.4</b> The kitchen sink</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="3.4" data-path="questions-to-live-by.html"><a href="questions-to-live-by.html#r-markdown"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>3.4</b> R Markdown</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="3.5" data-path="questions-to-live-by.html"><a href="questions-to-live-by.html#including-plots"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>3.5</b> Including Plots</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="" data-path="part-ii-using-r.html"><a href="part-ii-using-r.html"><i class="fa fa-check"></i>Part II. Using R</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="4" data-path="warming-up-to-r-and-more.html"><a href="warming-up-to-r-and-more.html"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>4</b> Warming up to R and more</a><ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="4.1" data-path="warming-up-to-r-and-more.html"><a href="warming-up-to-r-and-more.html#overview"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>4.1</b> Overview</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="4.2" data-path="warming-up-to-r-and-more.html"><a href="warming-up-to-r-and-more.html#what-is-r"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>4.2</b> What is <code>R</code>?</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="4.3" data-path="warming-up-to-r-and-more.html"><a href="warming-up-to-r-and-more.html#r-for-analytics"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>4.3</b> <code>R</code> for analytics</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="4.4" data-path="warming-up-to-r-and-more.html"><a href="warming-up-to-r-and-more.html#hot-and-cold-running-resources"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>4.4</b> Hot and cold running resources</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="4.5" data-path="warming-up-to-r-and-more.html"><a href="warming-up-to-r-and-more.html#gettingR"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>4.5</b> Installing R</a><ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="4.5.1" data-path="warming-up-to-r-and-more.html"><a href="warming-up-to-r-and-more.html#installing-r-on-a-windows-computer"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>4.5.1</b> Installing R on a Windows computer</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="4.5.2" data-path="warming-up-to-r-and-more.html"><a href="warming-up-to-r-and-more.html#installing-r-on-a-mac"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>4.5.2</b> Installing R on a Mac</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="4.5.3" data-path="warming-up-to-r-and-more.html"><a href="warming-up-to-r-and-more.html#installing-r-on-a-linux-computer"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>4.5.3</b> Installing R on a Linux computer</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="4.5.4" data-path="warming-up-to-r-and-more.html"><a href="warming-up-to-r-and-more.html#installingrstudio"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>4.5.4</b> Downloading and installing RStudio</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="4.6" data-path="warming-up-to-r-and-more.html"><a href="warming-up-to-r-and-more.html#first-day-at-school"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>4.6</b> First day at school</a><ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="4.6.1" data-path="warming-up-to-r-and-more.html"><a href="warming-up-to-r-and-more.html#install-r-markdown"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>4.6.1</b> Install <code>R Markdown</code></a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="4.7" data-path="warming-up-to-r-and-more.html"><a href="warming-up-to-r-and-more.html#install-latex"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>4.7</b> Install LaTex</a><ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="4.7.1" data-path="warming-up-to-r-and-more.html"><a href="warming-up-to-r-and-more.html#our-first-file"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>4.7.1</b> Our first file</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="4.8" data-path="warming-up-to-r-and-more.html"><a href="warming-up-to-r-and-more.html#some-fun-with-stan"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>4.8</b> Some fun with Stan</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="4.9" data-path="warming-up-to-r-and-more.html"><a href="warming-up-to-r-and-more.html#github"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>4.9</b> Github</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="4.10" data-path="warming-up-to-r-and-more.html"><a href="warming-up-to-r-and-more.html#jargon"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>4.10</b> jaRgon</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="5" data-path="tickling-the-ivories.html"><a href="tickling-the-ivories.html"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>5</b> Tickling the Ivories</a><ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="5.1" data-path="tickling-the-ivories.html"><a href="tickling-the-ivories.html#start-to-tickle"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>5.1</b> Start to tickle</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="5.2" data-path="tickling-the-ivories.html"><a href="tickling-the-ivories.html#try-this-exercise"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>5.2</b> Try this exercise</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="5.3" data-path="tickling-the-ivories.html"><a href="tickling-the-ivories.html#building-some-character"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>5.3</b> Building Some Character</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="5.4" data-path="tickling-the-ivories.html"><a href="tickling-the-ivories.html#the-plot-thickens"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>5.4</b> The plot thickens</a><ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="5.4.1" data-path="tickling-the-ivories.html"><a href="tickling-the-ivories.html#try-this-example"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>5.4.1</b> Try this example</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="5.5" data-path="tickling-the-ivories.html"><a href="tickling-the-ivories.html#arrays-and-you"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>5.5</b> Arrays and You</a><ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="5.5.1" data-path="tickling-the-ivories.html"><a href="tickling-the-ivories.html#try-this-exercise-1"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>5.5.1</b> Try this exercise</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="5.5.2" data-path="tickling-the-ivories.html"><a href="tickling-the-ivories.html#more-about-residuals"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>5.5.2</b> More about residuals</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="5.6" data-path="tickling-the-ivories.html"><a href="tickling-the-ivories.html#more-array-work"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>5.6</b> More Array Work</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="5.7" data-path="tickling-the-ivories.html"><a href="tickling-the-ivories.html#summary"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>5.7</b> Summary</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="5.8" data-path="tickling-the-ivories.html"><a href="tickling-the-ivories.html#further-reading"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>5.8</b> Further Reading</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="5.9" data-path="tickling-the-ivories.html"><a href="tickling-the-ivories.html#practice-sets"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>5.9</b> Practice Sets</a><ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="5.9.1" data-path="tickling-the-ivories.html"><a href="tickling-the-ivories.html#purpose-process-product"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>5.9.1</b> Purpose, Process, Product</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="5.9.2" data-path="tickling-the-ivories.html"><a href="tickling-the-ivories.html#r-markdown-set-up"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>5.9.2</b> <code>R Markdown</code> set up</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="5.9.3" data-path="tickling-the-ivories.html"><a href="tickling-the-ivories.html#mutual-fund-simulation"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>5.9.3</b> Mutual Fund simulation</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="5.9.4" data-path="tickling-the-ivories.html"><a href="tickling-the-ivories.html#healthcare-provider-admission-rates"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>5.9.4</b> Healthcare provider admission rates</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="5.9.5" data-path="tickling-the-ivories.html"><a href="tickling-the-ivories.html#practice-set-debrief"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>5.9.5</b> Practice Set Debrief</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="5.10" data-path="tickling-the-ivories.html"><a href="tickling-the-ivories.html#project-captive-financing"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>5.10</b> Project: Captive Financing</a><ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="5.10.1" data-path="tickling-the-ivories.html"><a href="tickling-the-ivories.html#purpose"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>5.10.1</b> Purpose</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="5.10.2" data-path="tickling-the-ivories.html"><a href="tickling-the-ivories.html#problem-2"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>5.10.2</b> Problem</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="5.10.3" data-path="tickling-the-ivories.html"><a href="tickling-the-ivories.html#data"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>5.10.3</b> Data</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="5.10.4" data-path="tickling-the-ivories.html"><a href="tickling-the-ivories.html#work-flow"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>5.10.4</b> Work Flow</a></li>
</ul></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="6" data-path="counting-on-tibble.html"><a href="counting-on-tibble.html"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>6</b> Counting on tibble</a><ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="6.1" data-path="counting-on-tibble.html"><a href="counting-on-tibble.html#counting-the-ways"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>6.1</b> Counting the ways</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="6.2" data-path="counting-on-tibble.html"><a href="counting-on-tibble.html#having-all-of-our-marbles"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>6.2</b> Having all of our marbles</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="" data-path="part-iii-the-basic-model.html"><a href="part-iii-the-basic-model.html"><i class="fa fa-check"></i>Part III - The Basic Model</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="7" data-path="sampling-the-hypothetical.html"><a href="sampling-the-hypothetical.html"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>7</b> Sampling the Hypothetical</a><ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="7.1" data-path="sampling-the-hypothetical.html"><a href="sampling-the-hypothetical.html#on-your-marks"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>7.1</b> On your marks …</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="7.2" data-path="sampling-the-hypothetical.html"><a href="sampling-the-hypothetical.html#brute-force"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>7.2</b> Brute force</a><ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="7.2.1" data-path="sampling-the-hypothetical.html"><a href="sampling-the-hypothetical.html#skin-in-the-game"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>7.2.1</b> Skin in the game</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="7.3" data-path="sampling-the-hypothetical.html"><a href="sampling-the-hypothetical.html#the-least-of-the-squares"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>7.3</b> The least of the squares</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="7.4" data-path="sampling-the-hypothetical.html"><a href="sampling-the-hypothetical.html#look-up-in-the-sky-its-a"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>7.4</b> Look: up in the sky it’s a …</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="" data-path="sampling-the-hypothetical.html"><a href="sampling-the-hypothetical.html#session-information"><i class="fa fa-check"></i>Session Information</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="" data-path="references.html"><a href="references.html"><i class="fa fa-check"></i>References</a></li>
<li class="divider"></li>
<li><a href="https://github.com/rstudio/bookdown" target="blank">Published with bookdown</a></li>
</ul>
</nav>
</div>
<div class="book-body">
<div class="body-inner">
<div class="book-header" role="navigation">
<h1>
<i class="fa fa-circle-o-notch fa-spin"></i><a href="./">Probabilistic Reasoning</a>
</h1>
</div>
<div class="page-wrapper" tabindex="-1" role="main">
<div class="page-inner">
<section class="normal" id="section-">
<div id="questions-to-live-by" class="section level1">
<h1><span class="header-section-number">Chapter 3</span> Questions To Live By</h1>
<div id="so" class="section level2">
<h2><span class="header-section-number">3.1</span> SO …</h2>
<p>What are those questions we should ask with which we conduct our data analysis?</p>
<p>We will use three different kinds of learning experiences to generate useful questions for research and further inquiry.</p>
<ul>
<li><p>The first, the quaestiones disputata, is a dialectical method from the medieval university, well known to readers of Aquinas’ Summa Theologiae, that aims to reach a comprehensive viewpiont from seemingly opposed principles of change.</p></li>
<li><p>The second, is the situational vignette, from which theatrical role plays and simulations, followed by a survey debriefing, will allow us to study our reactions to different business situations, and in that way prepare ourselves for present and future decisions.</p></li>
<li><p>The third is the case presentation, where groups of decision makers, analysts, and experts present the working out of a business case problem based on a inquiry, reflection, and decision of the group’s own devising.</p></li>
</ul>
<div id="quaestiones-disputatae" class="section level3">
<h3><span class="header-section-number">3.1.1</span> Quaestiones Disputatae</h3>
<p>This genre allows us to use abstract, concrete, logical, literary, and rhetorical devices to scope out fully a marketing, financial, operational, even a moral situation and the questions and answers that attend it.</p>
<p>For example, we might ask,</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“How much luck can or should we humanly live with, in order to live the life that is most valuable for a human being?”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>This is a most general question of practical importance. For organizations this question sets the stage for a discussion, measurement, and management of tolerable risk.</p>
<p>The question would speak to our notions of what is or is not a human being; living life; what is or is not valuable; what is human life; what is self-sufficiency versus external forces at work on our life; what can or potentially will occur; what should occur according to predictions, rules, expectations, obligations, contracts and agreements.</p>
<p>We might then state a provisional answer to the question, say for example, “Luck has nothing at all to do with the value of human living.” With this answer, we would then attempt to support it with three or so positions. After the positions we state a contrary position. Upon the contrary position, we state our response, followed by replies to the original positions.</p>
<p>Why luck? Supppose that a vehicle manufacturer faces a tradeoff among issues of timing of a product launch, existing tolerances for safety, exponentially rising costs, the competition, and regulatory scrutiny across multiple and transnational jurisdictions. The question then inquires about the manufacturer’s tolerance for risk, its investors need for returns on their stake in the organization, the trust of consumers and users of the product, the reliability of vendors and the supply chain that produce the product.</p>
<p>Here goes a rendition of this <em>quaestio disputata</em>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Question: How much luck can or should we humanly live with, in order to live the life that is most valuable for a human being?</p>
</blockquote>
<p><em><strong>Provisional Answer</strong></em>: <em>Luck has nothing at all to do with the value of human living.</em></p>
<ul>
<li><p><em>Support #1</em>: Moral value is completely distinct from every other value. No matter what happens, the moral value of the good will is thoroughly immune to the onslaught of luck. (Kant)</p></li>
<li><p><em>Support #2</em>: The aim of life is uninterruptible control and activity. You can only trust that which is stable and immutable. Risk is intolerable, should be avoided at all costs, so as to achieve a godlike simplicity, without conflict of value or action. (Plato)</p></li>
<li><p><em>Support #3</em>: A young man must choose between his patriotic commitment to the French resistance and his dying mother. Both are outside of his direct control. From this case of inconsistency systematic ethical principles are inadequate guides for action. Thus, discard principle altogether, freely improvise choice, without regret. (Sartre)</p></li>
</ul>
<p><em>On the Contrary</em>: The world exists such that there is indeed uncontrollable external power. Human values necessarily reside in the mutable and unstable. Thus, living well in such a world entails actively taking risks balanced by receptivity to a limited control over one’s life. (Aristotle)</p>
<p><em><strong>Response</strong></em>: Life and tragic literature, our vendors, our customers and clients, our regulators, shows good people being “ruined” all of the time because of “circumstances beyond their control,” otherwise known as luck. We often lack clarity of sight about our own lives, and those of people around us. We are blinded by our own bias and faults and often revise our positions to suit our bias. At the extreme you may simply give up any hope of amending your own or anyone else’s ways, everything is luck.</p>
<p>Aristotle notes that “it is easier for us to look at someone else that at ourselves” (Nichomachian Ethics 1169b33-4). We can use models, persons, especially friends (<em>philoi</em>) to help us determine what a good person would do in a situation like this. Ethical knowledge consists in the intuitive perception of concrete particulars. Perception is both cognitive and affective. It consists in the single ability to discern the ethical (what is valuable for human living) features from a particular situation. According to Bernard Lonergan, human knowledge proceeds from experience of data, feelings, senses, driven by insight to an understanding that describes and explains the data, further driven by reflection to a judging that affirms or denies the existence what is true or false, finally leading through deliberation to a choice that becomes an action. Luck occurs at each step of the way if only because of the complexity of all data, understanding, judging and choosing. It also occurs because each concrete situation is unique, although an understanding of it may be recurrent and probable, but not determinant.</p>
<p>Correct perception cannot be learned by rote or precept, but by guided experience. This is a lifelong process that risks vulnerability and reversal. The goal is not somnolent contentment, but rather a rich, vital life of value. The job to be done is to take on the world, make it and create it as a platform for more virtuous living. Conflict of values is not to be avoided, it is to be embraced. “The person who elevates simplicity to a supreme value is like the architect who uses a straight-edge against a fluted column: his calculations won’t build a sound building, and he will leave out much of the beauty and value of what is there before him” (Nussbaum, Fragility, p. 372).</p>
<p><em>Reply to #1</em>: The only moral imperative is that we act consistently with what we know. In a sense, through the interdependence of experience, understanding, judgment and decision, data, theory, affirmations, and choices are bound up in a hierarchy of values: the good of desire and the satisfaction of desire is the end of the level of experiencing; the good of order and the harmonization of satisfactions is the end of the level of understanding; the good of reason and the affirmation of one order over the other is the end of judgment; the good of value and the choice of one action plan over another is the end of decision. These values are all moral since they all relate to ways in which we can live as humans. Each of these values occurs in concrete situations in which luck is a given component. Each of these values and their realization in any situation I find myself, builds on the development of my life and character up to this point in my life and in anticipation of any future life I might have, with luck. Thus there are a plurality of moral values that operate in my life in which luck is a factor.</p>
<p><em>Reply to #2</em>: On the contrary, achievement of any human excellence requires both external resources and necessary conditions, as well as receptive objects to receive the excellent activity. Thus excellence requires relationships. Those relationships will exist in a developmental context and will thus be subject to bias, misapprehension, reversal. The person or persons in a relationship will need to develop together in order to meet their particular excellences in the concrete of the here and now of living. Although they might converge in some aspects, they will always be personal principles of plural value insofar as each is uniquely different from the other. Thus it is impossible to attain excellence through a solitary, simple attainment of a supreme value.</p>
<p><em>Reply to #3</em>: Conflicting general principles in particular situations will need to be revised according to the practical terms of the unique situation. By making relevant changes to general rules in particular circumstances, we can make the rules as practical norms more precise and come to future particular situations better prepared. But if we change the rules to rationalize a new particular situation, no matter how justifiable it may seem, we can still lose something essential and human. To let his mother die without care, or refuse to enter the resistance: neither case is palatable for Sartre, or us. There is no “solution” in the scientific sense for the young man. The problem is richer than geometry. Whatever the actual choice, there will be grief, and this is appropriate. If we could dissociate ourselves, we would be less good. Good deliberation here may involve a yielding to flexibility and the renunciation of self-centered stubbornness. So Sartre is partly right: improvise. But regret is not bad, it helps us to remember the humanness of the problems we face, the difficulty in deliberating about what we judge to be true, given our understanding of heart-felt experiences. Civic virtues are good guides; but they are built from familial love. They represent an ordering that has oppositions and tensions. We cannot wish away the tension, and instead must live it from situation to situation.</p>
</div>
<div id="a-bit-long-tldr" class="section level3">
<h3><span class="header-section-number">3.1.2</span> A bit long TL;DR?</h3>
<p>This lengthy example illustrates a way to constuct a dialectical study of any question. But the study does not end here. Dialectic may be neatly defined as a “concrete unfolding of linked of opposed principles of change” (Lonergan, Insight, <span class="citation">(<span class="citeproc-not-found" data-reference-id="Longergan_"><strong>???</strong></span>)</span> 1970, p. 217). As managers and analysts we consciously put ourselves into concrete situations with studies of vignettes and cases, as well as actual decisions. There will be conflicting goals, aims, principles, and means to “solving” problems and answering questions. But the terms of the practical principles in each situation will always be linked, and our knowledge will evolve and thus change and become a viewpoint on the move. While we learn in the natural sciences that the aim of empirical method is complete explanation of the available facts, here the aim is similar: a comprehensive viewpoint of the array of seemingly opposed principles of change.</p>
</div>
</div>
<div id="situational-vignettes" class="section level2">
<h2><span class="header-section-number">3.2</span> Situational Vignettes</h2>
<p>These will be short stories in which we will assume various roles, play the parts, observe the responses, and debrief ourselves. Not only cognitive, but also affective activity is encouraged. While we don’t want these role plays and simulations to get so far gone as to become psychodrama, we should put enough of ourselves into the parts to derive comprehensive viewpoints from their exercise. Here is a starter vignette, similar to the Sartrean young man’s dilemma, and part of James Rest’s (1984) Defining Issues Test:</p>
<div id="the-heinz-dilemma" class="section level3">
<h3><span class="header-section-number">3.2.1</span> The Heinz Dilemma</h3>
<p>Heinz’s wife, Wilma is near death from a disease known virtually nowhere else on earth. One drug might save her. The drug has been developed by an innovative chemist in her country. The chemist wants $5,000 for a dose of the drug. Three doses over a one week period will be necessary before any improvement could be expected. It costs the chemist $500 per dose to produce.</p>
<p>Heinz has done everything he can to raise the necessary money, but has only managed to get $10,000. When it became clear that he would not be able to raise the additional $5,000, Heinz approached the company. He told him that his wife was dying and begged him to sell the drug cheaper or let him pay later. The chemist refused and said, “No. We developed the drug, and we must make money from it.”</p>
<p>After the meeting, Heinz began thinking about stealing the drug. Should Heinz try to steal the drug? Why?</p>
<p>Heinz is asking himself several questions before he decides whether or not to steal the drug from the chemist. Personally rank the following questions in the order that you believe should be most important in making his decision.</p>
<ol style="list-style-type: decimal">
<li>____ Will I be violating a principle of my religion?</li>
<li>____ How much does my wife contribute to society?</li>
<li>____ How likely is it that I’ll be shot by a guard while stealing the drug and suffer great pain?</li>
<li>____ Does the chemist have a right to keep the drug unless he knowingly consents to its sale?</li>
<li>____ Will I be committing a crime?</li>
<li>____ How much happier will I be if my wife continues to live?</li>
<li>____ How much will society be harmed by my stealing the drug?</li>
<li>____ What would my friends think if they found out that I stole the drug?</li>
<li>____ Does Wilma have a right to help under the circumstances?</li>
<li>____ Will I feel humiliated if I’m caught?</li>
<li>____ How much will I enjoy seeing the greedy chemist suffer?</li>
<li>____ Would most people in my country steal the drug under these circumstances?</li>
</ol>
</div>
<div id="debriefing." class="section level3">
<h3><span class="header-section-number">3.2.2</span> Debriefing.</h3>
<p>In small groups we would discuss the group members’ rank ordering. A consensus would be the desired outcome. Barring a complete consensus, we could reach a consensus about the first five most important questions.</p>
<ol style="list-style-type: decimal">
<li>What are the major criteria that Heinz and the groups use to help decide the issue?</li>
<li>Are there other criteria that Heinz or the groups could have used to help decide the issue?</li>
<li>What does each person’s religious and/or cultural background say about the way the issue should be decided?</li>
<li>Finish by relating the major sources of criteria to the way the criteria relate to the method by which the groups decided the most important questions.</li>
</ol>
<p>This may be aided by considering MacIntyre’s (1990) three rival methods of inquiry: traditional, encyclopedic, and genealogical.</p>
</div>
</div>
<div id="methods-of-inquiry" class="section level2">
<h2><span class="header-section-number">3.3</span> Methods of inquiry</h2>
<p>In coming up with research and crunchy business questions there are several approaches we might employ.</p>
<div id="aristotles-appearances" class="section level3">
<h3><span class="header-section-number">3.3.1</span> Aristotle’s appearances</h3>
<p>An “Aristotelian” method of inquiry:</p>
<ol style="list-style-type: decimal">
<li>Set down the relevant “appearances.” These are the data, including beliefs, information, reviews of scientific or philosophical treatments of the situation, generated by the group that has enough relevance to the subject at hand to at least have a common set of terms or relations.</li>
<li>Set out the puzzles or dilemmas that confront us. First bring conflicting opinions to the surface, set them out clearly. Second, note considerations for and against each, especially how the adoption of one side affects the other possible sides of the issue.</li>
<li>Press for consistency in keeping or throwing out contradictory appearances and the positions they suppose. How? First, nothing universally believed is entirely discarded. Second, nothing that we have to be using in order to argue or inquire can get thrown out. Third, as we look at our practices, employ judges or experts that we trust.</li>
<li>Ensure relevance by returning to step 1 and couching all remaining positions in what can be verified.</li>
<li>Choose the action that follows consistently on the arrived at knowledge of positions and counter-positions.</li>
</ol>
</div>
<div id="mills-the-economist" class="section level3">
<h3><span class="header-section-number">3.3.2</span> Mills the economist</h3>
<p>A “utilitarian” method of inquiry:</p>
<ol style="list-style-type: decimal">
<li>In an accurate way and with descriptive and precise language state the actions to be evaluated; be sure to delineate only those actions that are mutually exclusive.</li>
<li>Indentify all of the stakeholders to the action, that is, all who are directly and indirectly affected by the action, now and in the future.</li>
<li>Specify all of the good and bad consequences of the action for all those affected along with possible actions, reactions and outcomes with corresponding likelihoods of occurrence.</li>
<li>Identify the aggregate of good results with the degree of happiness produced; weigh the good results against the bad results by considering costs and benefits of the actions, their quantity and duration.</li>
<li>Aggregate (or if numerical, sum up) the good and bad consequences according to their weights in your decision process. If the action produces more good than bad the action is morally right; otherwise the action is morally wrong.</li>
<li>Consider alternative mutually exclusive scenarios of actions and repeat steps 1 through 5. Among those actions that are feasible and available, choose the action that produces the most good (or least bad) as the morally acceptable course of action.</li>
</ol>
</div>
<div id="categorical-imperiousness-perhaps" class="section level3">
<h3><span class="header-section-number">3.3.3</span> Categorical imperiousness perhaps</h3>
<p>A deontologist (rule based duty, deon, in Greek) , would use the following method:</p>
<ol style="list-style-type: decimal">
<li>Separate the various elements of a given situation, action or choice into coherent sets of terms and relations among terms.</li>
<li>Identify a rule or rules that have general terms and relations, such that this concrete situation or choice is clearly an example of the general case.</li>
<li>Test the rule by asking whether this rule can be followed universally, that is, by everybody in every general case, without contradiction; if so then the rule prescribes morally acceptable behavior that is obligatory in general.</li>
<li>Apply the rule to the specific case by recasting the general terms and relations in terms of the concrete example.</li>
<li>Retest the rule by asking whether this rule, as an application of the general rule to the specific situation, can be followed universally by everybody in every manifestation of this specific case, without contradiction; if so then the rule prescribes morally acceptable behavior that is obligatory specifically in this case.</li>
</ol>
</div>
<div id="the-kitchen-sink" class="section level3">
<h3><span class="header-section-number">3.3.4</span> The kitchen sink</h3>
<p>An eclectic method that combines utilitarian and deontological strains might run like this:</p>
<ol style="list-style-type: decimal">
<li>State the conduct to be evaluated as a moral rule open to all persons in similar circumstances.</li>
<li>Identify all stakeholders who will be directly and indirectly affected by the application of the rule in this instance.</li>
<li>Put yourself in the place of the stakeholder; using available facts, and their interests as a guide, determine how each stakeholder would be harmed or benefitted by this conduct now and in the future.</li>
<li>Identify all those who would be affected if this moral rule prevailed in society.</li>
<li>Put yourself in the place of each stakeholder, using as your guide their interests and all the obtainable facts, determine how each stakeholder would be benefitted or harmed by this rule.</li>
<li>Weigh both the effects of this conduct and the application of this rule taking into account the quantity, duration and likelihood of the costs and benefits involved.</li>
<li>Ask yourself, representing all stakeholders involved, whether you would be prepared to see this rule come into being, and if so the conduct is morally right, otherwise morally wrong.</li>
<li>If you have judged this conduct wrong but there are still good reasons for permitting it, consider alternatives and repeat steps 1 through 8.</li>
</ol>
<p>The classroom presentation of the case by the group can follow any one of these methods. In so doing, the group must justify its use of the method in terms</p>
</div>
</div>
<div id="r-markdown" class="section level2">
<h2><span class="header-section-number">3.4</span> R Markdown</h2>
<p>This is an R Markdown document. Markdown is a simple formatting syntax for authoring HTML, PDF, and MS Word documents. For more details on using R Markdown see <a href="http://rmarkdown.rstudio.com" class="uri">http://rmarkdown.rstudio.com</a>.</p>
<p>When you click the <strong>Knit</strong> button a document will be generated that includes both content as well as the output of any embedded R code chunks within the document. You can embed an R code chunk like this:</p>
<div class="sourceCode" id="cb1"><pre class="sourceCode r"><code class="sourceCode r"><a class="sourceLine" id="cb1-1" title="1"><span class="kw">summary</span>(cars)</a></code></pre></div>
<pre><code>## speed dist
## Min. : 4.0 Min. : 2.00
## 1st Qu.:12.0 1st Qu.: 26.00
## Median :15.0 Median : 36.00
## Mean :15.4 Mean : 42.98
## 3rd Qu.:19.0 3rd Qu.: 56.00
## Max. :25.0 Max. :120.00</code></pre>
</div>
<div id="including-plots" class="section level2">
<h2><span class="header-section-number">3.5</span> Including Plots</h2>
<p>You can also embed plots, for example:</p>
<p><img src="book-probabilistic-reasoning_files/figure-html/pressure-1.png" width="672" /></p>
<p>Note that the <code>echo = FALSE</code> parameter was added to the code chunk to prevent printing of the R code that generated the plot.</p>
</div>
</div>
</section>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<a href="probability-for-real-people.html" class="navigation navigation-prev " aria-label="Previous page"><i class="fa fa-angle-left"></i></a>
<a href="part-ii-using-r.html" class="navigation navigation-next " aria-label="Next page"><i class="fa fa-angle-right"></i></a>
</div>
</div>
<script src="libs/gitbook-2.6.7/js/app.min.js"></script>
<script src="libs/gitbook-2.6.7/js/lunr.js"></script>
<script src="libs/gitbook-2.6.7/js/clipboard.min.js"></script>
<script src="libs/gitbook-2.6.7/js/plugin-search.js"></script>
<script src="libs/gitbook-2.6.7/js/plugin-sharing.js"></script>
<script src="libs/gitbook-2.6.7/js/plugin-fontsettings.js"></script>
<script src="libs/gitbook-2.6.7/js/plugin-bookdown.js"></script>
<script src="libs/gitbook-2.6.7/js/jquery.highlight.js"></script>
<script src="libs/gitbook-2.6.7/js/plugin-clipboard.js"></script>
<script>
gitbook.require(["gitbook"], function(gitbook) {
gitbook.start({
"sharing": {
"github": false,
"facebook": true,
"twitter": true,
"linkedin": false,
"weibo": false,
"instapaper": false,
"vk": false,
"all": ["facebook", "twitter", "linkedin", "weibo", "instapaper"]
},
"fontsettings": {
"theme": "white",
"family": "sans",
"size": 2
},
"edit": {
"link": null,
"text": null
},
"history": {
"link": null,
"text": null
},
"view": {
"link": null,
"text": null
},
"download": ["book-probabilistic-reasoning.pdf", "book-probabilistic-reasoning.epub"],
"toc": {
"collapse": "subsection"
}
});
});
</script>
<!-- dynamically load mathjax for compatibility with self-contained -->
<script>
(function () {
var script = document.createElement("script");
script.type = "text/javascript";
var src = "true";
if (src === "" || src === "true") src = "https://mathjax.rstudio.com/latest/MathJax.js?config=TeX-MML-AM_CHTML";
if (location.protocol !== "file:")
if (/^https?:/.test(src))
src = src.replace(/^https?:/, '');
script.src = src;
document.getElementsByTagName("head")[0].appendChild(script);
})();
</script>
</body>
</html>