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model10.R
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model10.R
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# Model 10 ####
#' Models 6-9 established that, for a simple estimation problem, an evolutionary
#' pressure can emerge favouring egocentric bias where advice is communicated
#' noisily (models 6 & 7), made with less sensitivity than initial decisions
#' (model 8), or is occasionally deliberately misleading (model 10).
#' Here we explore whether these findings remain true for a different type of
#' decision, namely a bounded estimation problem. Again, the true answer each
#' time is 50, but this time agents' decisions and advice are always capped to
#' be between 0 and 100.
# Advice is disconnected from initial decision
# Libraries
if(!require('parallel')) {
install.packages(repos="http://cran.r-project.org",'parallel')
library(parallel)
}
parallel <- T
# Agents have direct access to one another's confidence.
ARC <- Sys.info()[[1]] != 'Windows'
if(ARC)
setwd(paste0(getwd(), '/EvoEgoBias'))
if(parallel)
ARC <- T
if(ARC) {
print(Sys.info())
# Set up the parallel execution capabilities
nCores <- detectCores()
cl <- makeCluster(nCores)
print(paste('Running in parallel on', nCores, 'cores.'))
reps <- nCores
} else {
reps <- 1
}
# Define the function
runModel <- function(spec) {
print(spec)
setwd(spec$wd)
source('evoSim/evoSim/R/evoSim.R')
data <- evoSim(agentCount = spec$agents,
agentDegree = spec$degree,
decisionCount = spec$decisions,
generationCount = 2500,
mutationChance = 0.01,
other = list(sensitivity = spec$sensitivity,
sensitivitySD = spec$sensitivitySD,
startingEgoBias = spec$startingEgoBias,
adviceNoise = spec$adviceNoise,
badAdviceProb = spec$badAdviceProb),
makeAgentFun = function(modelParams, parents = NULL) {
# Inherit egoBias if there's a previous generation and we're not mutating
if(!is.null(parents)) {
if(runif(1) < modelParams$mutationChance) {
# mutate
egoBias <- rnorm(1, parents$egoBias, 0.1)
} else {
egoBias <- parents$egoBias
}
}
else {
egoBias <- modelParams$other$startingEgoBias#rnorm(1, .5, 1)
}
sensitivity <- abs(rnorm(1, mean = modelParams$other$sensitivity,
sd = modelParams$other$sensitivitySD))
# Keep egoBias to within [0-1]
egoBias <- clamp(egoBias, maxVal = 1, minVal = 0)
return(data.frame(sensitivity, egoBias))
},
selectParentsFun = function(modelParams, agents, world, ties) {
tmp <- agents[which(agents$generation == world$generation),]
tmp <- tmp[order(tmp$fitness, decreasing = T),]
# drop the worst half of the population
# tmp <- tmp[1:2,]#(floor(nrow(tmp)/2)), ]
# the others get weighted by relative fitness which are transformed to +ve values
tmp$fitness <- tmp$fitness - min(tmp$fitness) + 1
# scale appropriately
while(any(tmp$fitness < 10))
tmp$fitness <- tmp$fitness * 10
# and round off
tmp$fitness <- round(tmp$fitness)
tickets <- vector(length = sum(tmp$fitness)) # each success buys a ticket in the draw
i <- 0
for(a in 1:nrow(tmp)) {
tickets[(i+1):(i+1+tmp$fitness[a])] <- a
i <- i + 1 + tmp$fitness[a]
}
winners <- sample(tickets, modelParams$agentCount, replace = T)
# The winners clone their egocentric discounting
winners <- tmp[winners,'id']
return(winners)
},
getDecisionFun = function(modelParams, agents, world, ties, initial = F) {
mask <- which(agents$generation == world$generation)
if(initial) {
# initial decision - look and see
n <- length(mask)
agents$initialDecision[mask] <- rnorm(n,
rep(world$state, n),
clamp(agents$sensitivity[mask],Inf))
} else {
# Final decision - take advice
# Use vector math to do the advice taking
out <- NULL
noise <- rnorm(length(mask), 0, modelParams$other$adviceNoise)
out <- (agents$initialDecision[mask] * agents$egoBias[mask]) +
((1-agents$egoBias[mask]) * (agents$advice[mask] + noise))
out <- clamp(out, 100)
out[is.na(out)] <- agents$initialDecision[mask][is.na(out)]
agents$finalDecision[mask] <- out
}
return(agents)
},
getWorldStateFun = function(modelParams, world) {
return(50)
},
getAdviceFun = spec$getAdviceFun)
# save results
n <- length(unique(data$agents$generation))
results <- data.frame(generation = unique(data$agents$generation),
modelDuration = rep(data$duration, n),
sensitivity = rep(spec$sensitivity, n),
sensitivitySD = rep(spec$sensitivitySD, n))
# bind in the stats of interest aggregated by the generation
results <- cbind(results,
aggregate(data$agents,
list(data$agents$generation),
mean)[ ,c('fitness',
'degree',
'sensitivity',
'egoBias',
'initialDecision',
'finalDecision')])
rawdata <- data
rawdata$rep <- 1
return(list(rawdata = rawdata, results = results))
}
# Advice functions - there's noisy advice and bad advice
noisyAdviceFun <- function(modelParams, agents, world, ties) {
mask <- which(agents$generation == world$generation)
agents$advisor[mask] <- apply(ties, 1, function(x) sample(which(x != 0),1))
# Fetch advice as a vector
n <- length(mask)
agents$advice[mask] <- rnorm(n,
rep(world$state, n),
clamp(agents$sensitivity[agents$advisor[mask]]
+ modelParams$other$adviceNoise,
Inf))
agents$advice[mask] <- clamp(agents$advice[mask], 100)
return(agents)
}
badAdviceFun <- function(modelParams, agents, world, ties) {
mask <- which(agents$generation == world$generation)
agents$advisor[mask] <- apply(ties, 1, function(x) sample(which(x != 0),1))
# Fetch advice as a vector
n <- length(mask)
agents$advice[mask] <- rnorm(n,
rep(world$state, n),
clamp(agents$sensitivity[agents$advisor[mask]]
+ modelParams$other$adviceNoise,
Inf))
agents$advice[mask & (runif(n) < modelParams$other$badAdviceProb)] <-
world$state + modelParams$other$sensitivity + 3*modelParams$other$sensitivitySD
agents$advice[mask] <- clamp(agents$advice[mask], 100)
return(agents)
}
adviceFunctions <- c(noisyAdviceFun, badAdviceFun)
for(modelNumber in 1:3) {
# Storage path for results
resultsPath <- ifelse(ARC,'results/','results/')
time <- format(Sys.time(), "%F_%H-%M-%S")
resultsPath <- paste0(resultsPath,'mdl',modelNumber,'_',time)
# Clear the result storage variables
suppressWarnings(rm('rawdata'))
suppressWarnings(rm('results'))
# Parameter space to explore
specs <- list()
for(x in c(1000))
for(y in c(10))
for(z in c(30))
for(s in c(10,100))
for(sSD in c(10))
for(sEB in c(0.01, 0.99))
for(aN in c(0, 10))
for(bA in c(.1,.1,.5))
specs[[length(specs)+1]] <- list(agents=x,degree=y,decisions=z,
sensitivity=s,sensitivitySD=sSD,
startingEgoBias=sEB,
adviceNoise = aN,
badAdviceProb = bA,
wd = getwd())
if(modelNumber <= length(adviceFunctions))
for(spec in specs)
spec$getAdviceFun <- adviceFunctions[[modelNumber]]
# Testing code for debugging parallel stuff
# rm('x','y','z','s','sSD','sEB','aN','bA')
# runModel(specs[[1]])
#specs <- specs[1:24]
# Run the models
# Run parallel repetitions of the model with these settings
startTime <- Sys.time()
if(!ARC) {
degreeResults <- lapply(specs, runModel)
} else {
print('Executing parallel operations...')
degreeResults <- parLapply(cl, specs, runModel)
}
print('...combining results...')
# Join up results
for(res in degreeResults) {
if(!exists('results'))
results <- res$results
else
results <- rbind(results, res$results)
if(!exists('rawdata'))
rawdata <- list(res$rawdata)
else
rawdata[[length(rawdata)+1]] <- res$rawdata
}
print(paste0('...complete.'))
print(Sys.time() - startTime)
print('Estimated data size:')
print(object.size(rawdata), units = 'auto')
print('Saving data...')
# Save data
write.csv(results, paste(resultsPath, 'results.csv'))
print('...saved csv...')
save(rawdata, file = paste(resultsPath, 'rawdata.Rdata'))
print('...saved rawdata...')
# Smaller datafile for stopping me running out of memory during analysis
allAgents <- NULL
for(rd in rawdata) {
rd$agents$agentCount <- rep(rd$model$agentCount,nrow(rd$agents))
rd$agents$agentDegree <- rep(rd$model$agentDegree,nrow(rd$agents))
rd$agents$decisionCount <- rep(rd$model$decisionCount,nrow(rd$agents))
rd$agents$modelDuration <- rep(rd$duration,nrow(rd$agents))
rd$agents$meanSensitivity <- rep(rd$model$other$sensitivity,nrow(rd$agents))
rd$agents$sdSensitivity <- rep(rd$model$other$sensitivitySD,nrow(rd$agents))
rd$agents$startingEgoBias <- rep(rd$model$other$startingEgoBias,nrow(rd$agents))
rd$agents$adviceNoise <- rep(rd$model$other$adviceNoise,nrow(rd$agents))
rd$agents$badAdviceProb <- rep(rd$model$other$badAdviceProb,nrow(rd$agents))
# only take a subset because of memory limitations
allAgents <- rbind(allAgents, rd$agents[rd$agents$generation%%50 == 1
| (rd$agents$generation%%25 == 1 & rd$agents$generation < 250), ])
}
save(allAgents, file = paste(resultsPath, 'rawdata_subset.Rdata'))
print('...saved subset...')
print('...data saved.')
}
# Cleanup
if(ARC)
stopCluster(cl)
print('Complete.')