This page is currently under development. It contains placeholder parameters, scenarios, data, and text.
The real DFES 2023 data should be included here by the end of December 2023.
This page is currently under development. It contains placeholder parameters, scenarios, data, and text.
The real DFES 2024 data should be included here by the end of December 2024.
Northern Powergrid's potential future scenarios, both interpreted from the 2023 National Grid Future Energy Scenarios, and a Best View Scenario drawing from the Climate Change Committee 6th Carbon Budget Scenarios and fitting the ENA Open Networks Best View Scenario criteria.
+Northern Powergrid's potential future scenarios, both interpreted from the 2024 National Grid Future Energy Scenarios, and a Best View Scenario drawing from the Climate Change Committee 6th Carbon Budget Scenarios and fitting the ENA Open Networks Best View Scenario criteria.
Select Yes and the colour scale will change depending on the year you have selected. This will help improve contrast for each area within your chosen year. Select No and the colour scale will stay the same as you move through the years.
This tool shows us how we can get to net-zero carbon by 2050. As part of our planning for decarbonisation we considered a range of possible scenarios in our region. We are publishing here our modelling results for our stakeholders to use, apply to their own models, review and comment upon. The five scenarios are:
Details of assumptions and how these scenarios were built can be found below.
-These regional pathways together form our 2023 Distribution Future Energy Scenarios (DFES). They also incorporate feedback from stakeholders who engaged with our 2022 DFES published in December 2022.
+These regional pathways together form our 2024 Distribution Future Energy Scenarios (DFES). They also incorporate feedback from stakeholders who engaged with our 2022 DFES published in December 2022.
Previous versions of Northern Powergrid's DFES can be found for 2020, 2021 and 2022, or choose from all our visualisations.
-If you have any comments, questions or feedback on our scenarios, please send them to System.Forecasting@Northernpowergrid.com
-If you have any comments, questions or feedback on our scenarios, please send them to System.Forecasting@Northernpowergrid.com
+This scenario world is highly ambitious, in line with our stakeholders' vision, achieving net zero in the late 2040s. The scenario relies on intensive investment in low carbon technologies, as well as early action from government and a high level of engagement from consumers, in order to achieve aggressive rollout rates, especially of EVs and heat pumps.
To show data on a map we need to have unique polygons for each Primary substation. To do this we used customer postcodes to identify each ONS Output Area (2021) supplied by each Primary substation using a lookup table from ONS. Output Areas with fewer than 5 customers connected to a Primary substation were excluded. This reduced data issues in the customer database e.g. mistyped customer postcodes. We constructed representative geographies for each Primary substation from the remaining Output Areas. In cases where multiple Primary substations serve the same Output Area, that Output Area was assigned to the Primary substation that serves the most customers. For the 2023 DFES, we have built new polygons for each Primary substation in Northern Powergrid's network using the latest postcode data and the latest Output Areas produced from the 2021 Census.
+To show data on a map we need to have unique polygons for each Primary substation. To do this we used customer postcodes to identify each ONS Output Area (2021) supplied by each Primary substation using a lookup table from ONS. Output Areas with fewer than 5 customers connected to a Primary substation were excluded. This reduced data issues in the customer database e.g. mistyped customer postcodes. We constructed representative geographies for each Primary substation from the remaining Output Areas. In cases where multiple Primary substations serve the same Output Area, that Output Area was assigned to the Primary substation that serves the most customers. For the 2024 DFES, we have built new polygons for each Primary substation in Northern Powergrid's network using the latest postcode data and the latest Output Areas produced from the 2021 Census.
Knowing the Output Areas connected to each Primary allows us to also build a mapping from Primary to Local Authority.
Some Primary substation geographies may show larger areas on the map than they cover in practice particularly in rural areas where network connectivity may be concentrated in specific parts of an Output Area. The areas shown here are representative for the purpose of showing the Distribution Future Energy Scenario model data and should not be relied upon for checking connectivity or to assess the terms of connection for specific premises.
In the Primaries layer we have included Bulk and Grid Supply Points as "pseudo-Primaries" to give Local Authorities the full picture in their area. These pseudo-Primaries generally appear as small cut-outs. They are used to include large generation and storage connections that are not seen by Primary substations.
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