Merge pull request #749 from flohump/f_npi

option for NPI NDC reversal

CHANGELOG.md

@@ -25,6 +25,8 @@ The format is based on [Keep a Changelog](https://keepachangelog.com/en/1.0.0/).
 - **config** added SSP1-POP-GDP SSP2-POP-GDP and SSP5-POP-GDP
 - **modules[29-35]** added initial values for ov_bv for better starting point
 - **scripts** add mrdownscale script (0.5deg downscaling using LandUseInit as reference)
+- **32_forestry** added option s32_npi_ndc_reversal
+- **35_natveg** added option s35_npi_ndc_reversal
 
 ### removed
 -

config/default.cfg

@@ -924,6 +924,9 @@ cfg$gms$s32_aff_bii_coeff <- 0    # def = 0
 # * ("ndc"): prescribed afforestation based on NPI+NDC policies
 cfg$gms$c32_aff_policy <- "npi"              # def = "npi"
 
+# Year in which NPI NDC reversal should take place (e.g. 2025)
+cfg$gms$s32_npi_ndc_reversal <- Inf          # def = Inf
+
 # Maximum total global afforestation in Mha (Inf = no constraint)
 # Note 1: the limit applies to the sum of endogenous CO2 price driven and exogenous NPI/NDC afforestation
 # Note 2: a limit of 0 or below the level of exogenous NPI/NDC afforestation will be a automatically raised to the level of exogenous NPI/NDC afforestation
@@ -1059,6 +1062,9 @@ cfg$gms$c35_ad_policy <- "npi"              # def = "npi"
 # * ("ndc"): avoided other land conversion based on NPI+NDC policies
 cfg$gms$c35_aolc_policy <- "npi"              # def = "npi"
 
+# Year in which NPI NDC reversal should take place (e.g. 2025)
+cfg$gms$s35_npi_ndc_reversal <- Inf          # def = Inf
+
 # Distribution of age-classes during secondary forest initialization
 # * (0): All secondary forest belongs to highest age class
 # * (1): Equal distribution of secondary forest in all age-classes

modules/32_forestry/dynamic_may24/declarations.gms

@@ -55,6 +55,7 @@ parameters
  p32_future_to_current_demand_ratio(t,i)            Ratio of future and current timber demand (1)
  p32_demand_forestry_future(t,i,kforestry)          Future forestry demand in current time step (tDM per yr)
  p32_est_cost(type32)                               Establishment cost (USD17MER per ha)
+ i32_recurring_cost(type32)                         Recurring costs (USD17MER per ha)
 ;
 
 positive variables

modules/32_forestry/dynamic_may24/equations.gms

@@ -158,7 +158,7 @@ q32_cost_establishment(i2)..
 *' trees established for re/afforestation purposes.
 
 q32_cost_recur(i2) .. v32_cost_recur(i2) =e=
-                    sum((cell(i2,j2),type32,ac_sub), v32_land(j2,type32,ac_sub)) * s32_recurring_cost;
+                    sum((cell(i2,j2),type32,ac_sub), v32_land(j2,type32,ac_sub) * i32_recurring_cost(type32));
 
 
 **** Plantation establishment decision

modules/32_forestry/dynamic_may24/input.gms

@@ -48,6 +48,7 @@ scalars
   s32_plant_contr_growth_endvalue   End value for plantation contribution growth fader (percent per year) / 0 /
   s32_plant_contr_max               Maximum plantation contribution for establishment decision (percent) / 0.5 /
   s32_demand_establishment          Boolean switch for establishment demand assumption 1=forward looking 0=static (1) / 1 /
+  s32_npi_ndc_reversal              Year in which NPI NDC reversal should take place (1) / Inf /
 ;
 
 parameter f32_aff_mask(j) afforestation mask (binary)

modules/32_forestry/dynamic_may24/preloop.gms

@@ -5,7 +5,8 @@
 *** |  MAgPIE License Exception, version 1.0 (see LICENSE file).
 *** |  Contact: [email protected]
 
-*m_sigmoid_time_interpol(i32_plant_contr_fader,2020,2050,0.05,0);
+i32_recurring_cost(type32) = s32_recurring_cost;
+
 m_sigmoid_time_interpol(i32_plant_contr_growth_fader,s32_plant_contr_growth_startyear,s32_plant_contr_growth_endyear,s32_plant_contr_growth_startvalue,s32_plant_contr_growth_endvalue);
 
 p32_est_cost("plant") = s32_est_cost_plant;

modules/32_forestry/dynamic_may24/presolve.gms

@@ -120,6 +120,13 @@ v32_land.fx(j,"ndc",ac_sub) = pc32_land(j,"ndc",ac_sub);
 v32_land.lo(j,"ndc",ac_est) = 0;
 v32_land.up(j,"ndc",ac_est) = Inf;
 
+* release all bounds in case of NPI / NDC reversal and set recurring costs to zero
+if (m_year(t) >= s35_npi_ndc_reversal,
+  v32_land.lo(j,"ndc",ac) = 0;
+  v32_land.up(j,"ndc",ac) = Inf;
+  i32_recurring_cost("ndc") = 0;
+);
+
 ** fix c price induced afforestation based on s32_planing_horizon, fixed only until end of s32_planing_horizon, ac_est is free
 if(s32_aff_prot = 0,
   v32_land.fx(j,"aff",ac)$(ac.off <= s32_planing_horizon/5) = pc32_land(j,"aff",ac);

modules/35_natveg/pot_forest_may24/input.gms

@@ -26,6 +26,7 @@ s35_natveg_harvest_shr Constrains the allowed wood harvest from natural vegetati
 s35_secdf_distribution Flag for secdf initialization (0=all secondary forest in highest age class 1=Equal distribution among all age classes 2=Poulter distribution from MODIS satellite data) (1) / 2 /
 s35_forest_damage Damage simulation in forests (0=none 1=shifting agriculture 2= Damage from shifting agriculture is faded out by c35_forest_damage_end 4= f35_forest_shock scenario) / 2 /
 s35_forest_damage_end   Year of forest damage end  (1)              / 2050 /
+s35_npi_ndc_reversal    Year in which NPI NDC reversal should take place (1) / Inf /
 ;
 
 table f35_forest_lost_share(i,driver_source) Share of area damanged by forest fires (1)

modules/35_natveg/pot_forest_may24/presolve.gms

@@ -227,6 +227,12 @@ p35_min_forest(t,j)$(p35_min_forest(t,j) > pcm_land(j,"primforest") + pcm_land(j
   = pcm_land(j,"primforest") + pcm_land(j,"secdforest") + pcm_land(j,"forestry");
 p35_min_other(t,j)$(p35_min_other(t,j) > pcm_land(j,"other")) = pcm_land(j,"other");
 
+* NPI / NDC reversal
+if (m_year(t) >= s35_npi_ndc_reversal,
+  p35_min_forest(t,j) = 0;
+  p35_min_other(t,j) = 0;
+);
+
 ** Youngest age classes are not allowed to be harvested
 v35_hvarea_secdforest.fx(j,ac_est) = 0;
 v35_hvarea_other.fx(j,othertype35,ac_est) = 0;