diff --git a/crates/augurs-forecaster/src/power_transforms.rs b/crates/augurs-forecaster/src/power_transforms.rs
index adf7f14..8c5afff 100644
--- a/crates/augurs-forecaster/src/power_transforms.rs
+++ b/crates/augurs-forecaster/src/power_transforms.rs
@@ -2,9 +2,14 @@ use crate::transforms::box_cox;
 use argmin::core::*;
 use argmin::solver::brent::BrentOpt;
 
-fn box_cox_log_likelihood(data: &[f64], lambda: f64) -> f64 {
+fn box_cox_log_likelihood(data: &[f64], lambda: f64) -> Result<f64, Error> {
     let n = data.len() as f64;
-    assert!(n > 0.0, "Data must not be empty");
+    if n == 0.0 {
+        return Err(Error::msg("Data must not be empty"));
+    }
+    if data.iter().any(|&x| x <= 0.0) {
+        return Err(Error::msg("All data must be greater than 0"));
+    }
     let transformed_data: Vec<f64> = data.iter().map(|&x| box_cox(x, lambda)).collect();
     let mean_transformed: f64 = transformed_data.iter().copied().sum::<f64>() / n;
     let variance: f64 = transformed_data
@@ -14,9 +19,12 @@ fn box_cox_log_likelihood(data: &[f64], lambda: f64) -> f64 {
         / n;
 
     // Avoid log(0) by ensuring variance is positive
+    if variance <= 0.0 {
+        return Err(Error::msg("Variance must be positive"));
+    }
     let log_likelihood =
         -0.5 * n * variance.ln() + (lambda - 1.0) * data.iter().map(|&x| x.ln()).sum::<f64>();
-    log_likelihood
+    Ok(log_likelihood)
 }
 
 #[derive(Clone)]
@@ -30,12 +38,12 @@ impl CostFunction for BoxCoxProblem<'_> {
 
     // The goal is to minimize the negative log-likelihood
     fn cost(&self, lambda: &Self::Param) -> Result<Self::Output, Error> {
-        Ok(-box_cox_log_likelihood(&self.data, *lambda))
+        box_cox_log_likelihood(&self.data, *lambda).map(|ll| -ll)
     }
 }
 
 /// Optimize the lambda parameter for the Box-Cox transformation
-pub (crate) fn optimize_lambda(data: &[f64]) -> f64 {
+pub (crate) fn optimize_lambda(data: &[f64]) -> Result<f64, Error> {
     let cost = BoxCoxProblem { data: data };
     let init_param = 0.5;
     let solver = BrentOpt::new(-2.0, 2.0);
@@ -44,10 +52,12 @@ pub (crate) fn optimize_lambda(data: &[f64]) -> f64 {
         .configure(|state| state.param(init_param).max_iters(100))
         .run();
 
-    match result {
-        Ok(result) => result.state().best_param.unwrap(),
-        Err(error) => panic!("Optimization failed: {}", error),
-    }
+    result
+        .and_then(|res| {
+            res.state()
+                .best_param
+                .ok_or_else(|| Error::msg("No best parameter found"))
+            })
 }
 
 #[cfg(test)]
@@ -59,7 +69,23 @@ mod test {
     fn correct_optimal_lambda() {
         let data = &[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7];
         let got = optimize_lambda(data);
-        assert_approx_eq!(got, 0.7123778635679304);
+        assert!(got.is_ok());
+        let lambda = got.unwrap();
+        assert_approx_eq!(lambda, 0.7123778635679304);
+    }
+
+    #[test]
+    fn optimize_lambda_empty_data() {
+        let data = &[];
+        let got = optimize_lambda(data);
+        assert!(got.is_err());
+    }
+
+    #[test]
+    fn optimize_lambda_non_positive_data() {
+        let data = &[0.0, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7];
+        let got = optimize_lambda(data);
+        assert!(got.is_err());
     }
 
     #[test]
@@ -67,6 +93,16 @@ mod test {
         let data = &[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7];
         let lambda = 1.0;
         let got = box_cox_log_likelihood(data, lambda);
-        assert_approx_eq!(got, 11.266065387038703);
+        assert!(got.is_ok());
+        let llf = got.unwrap();
+        assert_approx_eq!(llf, 11.266065387038703);
+    }
+
+    #[test]
+    fn test_boxcox_llf_non_positive() {
+        let data = &[0.0, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7];
+        let lambda = 0.0;
+        let got = box_cox_log_likelihood(data, lambda);
+        assert!(got.is_err());
     }
 }
diff --git a/crates/augurs-forecaster/src/transforms.rs b/crates/augurs-forecaster/src/transforms.rs
index c9757c7..3c5d504 100644
--- a/crates/augurs-forecaster/src/transforms.rs
+++ b/crates/augurs-forecaster/src/transforms.rs
@@ -113,7 +113,7 @@ impl Transform {
     /// The Power transformation is defined as:
     ///
     pub fn power_transform(data: &[f64]) -> Self {
-        let lambda = optimize_lambda(data);
+        let lambda = optimize_lambda(data).unwrap_or_else(|_| 0.0);
         Self::BoxCox { lambda }
     }