Frequently Asked Questions

Scope

1. What countries are included as targets of forecasts? Individuals worldwide are welcome to submit forecasts for any EU/EEA country. A list of EU/EEA countries with related two-letter country abbreviations (ISO2 codes) is provided here.

Data

1. Is historical data available for the disease indicators, and where can it be found?

Historical data regarding forecasting targets can be found in the target-data folder of this repository.

2. What other data is available and where can it be found? Any other data source you may have access to, including alternative surveillance data, weather/climate information, or contact data, can be used to enhance the accuracy of your forecasts. ECDC provides supplementary data on positivity rates, age-disaggregated incidences, and other relevant indicators at the following GitHub repository. Nonetheless, it is important to emphasise that forecasts will be evaluated against data contained in target-data folder within this repository.

3. What is considered the ground truth data, especially given that indicator data may be corrected retrospectively? We consider ground truth the data contained in the target-data folder within this repository. Consequently, forecasts will be evaluated against this data. Decisions on how to account for retrospective data corrections will be made as more and more data snapshots become available.

Submissions

1. What is the closing day for the weekly submission? Forecast submissions will open on Saturday at 00:00 CET after the target data update, and closes on the next Wednesday at 23:59 CET.

2. When will the ensemble be created? The ensemble forecast will be generated promptly after the closure of forecast submissions on Wednesday at 23:59 CET, ensuring the inclusion of all submitted models.

3. When and where can I see the performance of my model? You can check your model’s forecasts and performance on the RespiCast platform once the model evaluations have started.

4. Is it okay if I miss a submission for a week? Yes! It is not mandatory to participate in all submission rounds.

5. Do you foresee the inclusion of other forecasting targets (e.g., hospitalizations, underlying true disease prevalence)? We closely monitor data availability and coverage across countries to explore opportunities for incorporating additional forecasting targets. Currently, our focus is on targets that offer optimal coverage, including both a wide range of countries and temporal coverage.

Community

1. Where can I find the slides from a recent meeting that I attended? If you wish to access materials from previous meetings, please feel free to reach out to us at [email protected].

2. How can I be kept in the loop about future activities of RespiCast? To stay up to date with the latest news and meetings, please join the [European Modeling Google group] (EU COVID-19 Forecast Hub). Will this community only share modelling knowhow or more?