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Round 1
We have now completed Round 1.
In this round we explored the impact of different timings of a second booster campaign while considering uncertainty around the speed of waning immunity, in order to inform vaccination policy across Europe. We asked for projections over a period of at least nine and at most twelve months.
- Submissions were solicited by 3 June 2022
- Submission information, key dates, and model abstract below
- Please note some important differences from Round 0
- Let us know if you need more time
Slow summer booster campaign
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Fast autumn booster campaign
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Optimistic slow immune waning
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Scenario A | Scenario B |
Pessimistic fast immune waning
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Scenario C | Scenario D |
* If a second booster is already offered to 60+ (Greece, Netherlands), vaccination uptake continues as currently
** If a second booster is already offered to 60+ (Greece, Netherlands), a third booster dose is recommended
In this section we cover scenario details for:
See also:
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Data links for cross-European data sources
We consider scenarios for a second booster vaccination campaign among the population aged 60+ in each country. This vaccination would typically be a fourth dose, following a completed course of two doses plus a first booster dose. We prescribe a relative reduction in vaccination coverage among this group, where by 15th December, uptake of the second booster reaches 50% of coverage achieved by the first booster campaign.
In the scenarios we vary only the timing of the booster campaign:
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Slow summer campaign: uptake starts 15th June
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Fast autumn campaign: uptake starts 15th September
We note that some countries have already started a second booster campaign.
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For nearly all countries, please continue to use the scenarios as they are. The scenarios ask for modellers to include a second booster dose open to ages 60+. In most countries currently offering a second booster, these scenarios are an expansion of the eligible age group
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The exceptions are Greece and the Netherlands, where second booster vaccination is already open to ages 60+. In these two countries:
- In scenarios A & C (uptake starts in June), please model booster vaccination uptake among the 60+ as it is continuing now.
- In scenarios B & D (uptake starts in September), please model a third booster (fifth dose), with otherwise the same parameters (uptake among 60+, starting 15 September, coverage reaching 50% of first booster dose by December)
All modellers should include the following parameters when modelling the booster campaign:
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Second booster is only recommended for population aged >=60 years
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Uptake among the target population reaches 50% of coverage achieved by the first booster campaign among that population
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Uptake at 50% of the target population is reached by 15th December
Modellers should use their own judgement and relevant literature if making assumptions about the following:
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The existing level of vaccination coverage reached in the first booster campaign
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Vaccine effectiveness against both infection and severe disease, for both previous vaccinations and the second booster
Waning immunity means protection against new COVID-19 infection. We take a similar general approach to waning immunity as in Round 0 (Euro Scenario Hub) and Round 13 (US Scenario Hub). We specify that immunity wanes to a 60% reduction from baseline levels. The baseline is the level of protection reported immediately after exposure (vaccination or infection).
In the scenarios we vary the median time taken to reach this reduction of immunity:
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Optimistic slow waning: a median time of 8 months for immunity to wane by 60% from baseline
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Pessimistic fast waning: a median time of 3 months for immunity to wane by 60% from baseline
All modellers should include the following parameters when modelling waning immunity:
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New to this round
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Immunity wanes by 60% (i.e. immunity after 3 or 8 months is 40% of baseline) across all scenarios
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Waning against severe disease: this is now left to modeller judgement with a recommendation to include waning against severe disease - see below
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As the pilot round (text adapted from US Scenario Hub)
- We prescribe the relative reduction in protection against infection after the waning period, where comparison is to the levels observed immediately after natural infection or vaccination
Modellers should use their own judgement and relevant literature if making assumptions about the following:
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Waning of protection against severe disease
- We strongly recommend including a decrease of 20% protection within 3 months. This is a combined estimate based on various recent studies, see example.
- However, this is up to modeller judgement and teams should continue to produce results even if they are unable to include waning against severe disease
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The absolute baseline level of protection against infection or severe disease after exposure
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Whether the baseline level of protection varies by the source of immunity (vaccination or natural infection)
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Whether or how new exposure to infection or vaccination during the waning period increases the level of immunity. Teams can choose to bump individuals to a higher level of protection after repeat exposures (where exposure is vaccination or infection), but waning would still occur on a 3 to 8 month timescale after each new exposure
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The distribution of waning immunity, including
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the shape and rate at which immunity wanes, as long as the median is 3 or 8 months
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whether immunity reaches a plateau or continues to wane after that time
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For additional background on waning immunity, we suggest exploring the scenarios for Round 0 or the more extensive documentation for the US Scenario Hub Round 13.
We also ask modellers to assume the following:
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No new variant of concern
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No novel vaccine types or novel drugs that strongly impact burden
We have updated the submission format for Round 1 and future rounds.
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Sample based submissions
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We no longer ask for results across a quantile distribution
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Please submit 100 samples. If you think more are needed to capture the uncertainty from the outputs, please get in touch. If you cannot provide 100 samples, please submit as many as you can.
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Each sample should be a single simulation from your model, all with equal probability
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See more on submission formatting
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Targets
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Teams can submit one or more of any of the below targets. See more on targets
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Key targets:
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Incident deaths
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Incident cases
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Incident hospital admissions
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Additional targets, if teams already produce these (please get in touch if yes as we will need to create associated variable names):
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Incident infections
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Intensive care (ICU) admissions
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The dates for round 1 are:
| Round 1 date | Epiweek (conversion) | |
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| Submissions due | June 03 2022 | |
| End date for fitting data | May 21 2022 | EW-20 of 2022 |
origin_date (first possible date of a daily simulation) |
May 22 2022 | First day of EW-21 of 2022 |
Earliest target_end_date (first week of simulated results) |
May 28 2022 | EW-21 of 2022 |
Latest target_end_date (projections over 9 to 12 months) |
From February 18 2023 to May 20 2023 | From EW-07 of 2023 to EW-20 of 2023 |
Please use the following codes to identify between scenarios, with one for each value (row) in your submission csv.
| Scenario | Scenario ID |
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| Scenario A. Slow waning, summer booster campaign | A-2022-05-22 |
| Scenario B. Slow waning, autumn booster campaign | B-2022-05-22 |
| Scenario C. Fast waning, summer booster campaign | C-2022-05-22 |
| Scenario D. Fast waning, autumn booster campaign | D-2022-05-22 |
Please include a brief abstract for your model as part of your submission. Please make a copy of the Round 1 Abstract template and save this to your team's folder in data-processed, adjusting the filename format (2022-05-22-MyTeam-MyModel-Abstract.md).