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<!DOCTYPE html>
<html lang="en" data-theme="lightest">
<head>
<meta charset="UTF-8">
<meta http-equiv="X-UA-Compatible" content="IE=edge">
<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
<link rel="canonical" href="https://arewefuckedyet.com">
<title>Are we fucked yet? There are a lot of reasons we might!</title>
<meta name="description" content="Did you ever want to know if we were fucked already? Actually we might be quite close. Find the answer here and leave your vote!">
<meta name="twitter:card" content="summary_large_image">
<meta name="twitter:creator" content="@bengthedev">
<meta name="twitter:url" content="https://arewefuckedyet.com">
<meta name="twitter:title" content="Are we fucked yet? We're working on it!">
<meta name="twitter:description" content="A dark view on current world politics and climate change">
<meta name="twitter:image" content="https://arewefuckedyet.com/img/social.png?1">
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<meta property="og:url" content="https://arewefuckedyet.com">
<meta property="og:description" content="A dark view on current world politics and climate change">
<link rel="icon" href="/favicon.ico">
<link rel="icon" href="/favicon.svg" type="image/svg+xml">
<link rel="manifest" href="/site.webmanifest">
<link rel="apple-touch-icon" href="/icon.png">
<meta name="theme-color" content="#f67dbc">
<style> .affiliate-off .affiliate.text, .affiliate-off img.affiliate {display: none;}</style>
<link href="tailwind.css" rel="stylesheet" media="all">
<link rel="preconnect" href="https://usagelog.pagereply.com" />
<link rel="preconnect" href="https://yesno.pagereply.com" />
<script src="https://yesno.pagereply.com/arewefuckedyet.com/votejs" defer></script>
<script src="https://usagelog.pagereply.com/logjs?source=arewefuckedyet.com" defer></script>
</head>
<body class="affiliate-off">
<header class="min-h-fit lg:mb-12">
<div class="mt-4 mb-4 text-center lg:min-w-full lg:mb-24 lg:mt-16">
<form id="vote_yesno">
<p class="font-bold text-2xl mb-4">Are we fucked yet?</p>
<button class="btn btn-primary disabled:text-slate-600" name="yes" id="vote_yes">Yes</button>
<button class="btn btn-secondary disabled:text-slate-600" name="no" id="vote_no">No</button>
<p id="userpoll" class="text-xl mt-4" title="How the page's users think we're fucked"> </p>
</form>
</div>
<div class="hero">
<div class="hero-content flex flex-col lg:flex-row-reverse">
<div class="" title="doomsday clock">
<svg viewBox="-50 -50 100 100" width="250" height="250" title="doomsday clock">
<circle class="clock-face" r="48" fill="#fff" />
<!-- markers -->
<line stroke="#000"
y1="42"
y2="45"
transform="rotate(180)"
/>
<line stroke="#000"
y1="42"
y2="45"
transform="rotate(150)"
/>
<line stroke="#000"
y1="42"
y2="45"
transform="rotate(-150)"
/>
<line stroke="#000"
y1="42"
y2="45"
transform="rotate(120)"
/>
<line stroke="#000"
y1="42"
y2="45"
transform="rotate(-120)"
/>
<line stroke="#000"
y1="42"
y2="45"
transform="rotate(90)"
/>
<line stroke="#000"
y1="42"
y2="45"
transform="rotate(60)"
/>
<line stroke="#000"
y1="42"
y2="45"
transform="rotate(-60)"
/>
<line stroke="#000"
y1="42"
y2="45"
transform="rotate(30)"
/>
<line stroke="#000"
y1="42"
y2="45"
transform="rotate(-30)"
/>
<line stroke="#000"
y1="42"
y2="45"
transform="rotate(-90)"
/>
<line stroke="#000"
y1="42"
y2="45"
/>
<!-- hour hand -->
<line stroke="darkred"
stroke-width="2"
class="hour"
y1="3"
y2="-20"
/>
<!-- minute hand -->
<line stroke="red"
class="minute"
stroke-width="1"
y1="4"
y2="-39"
transform="rotate(1)"
/>
</svg>
</div>
<div class="lg:min-w-[960px]">
<div class="text-center">
<h1 class="text-6xl font-bold md:text-9xl" id="heading">
I honestly don't know
</h1>
<p class="mt-12 mb-5 text-3xl md:text-4xl">
<span id="subtext">There's <b>certainly</b> someone out there doing something <b>stupid</b>!</span>
</p>
<p id="percentage" class="text-2xl mt-8" title="State of being fucked"> </p>
<p class="mt-10">
<a class="btn btn-primary animate-bounce" href="#more" title="Read more">Read more!</a>
</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</header>
<main class="min-h-screen w-min-full p-6 bg-white" id="more">
<h2 class="text-4xl font-bold text-center mb-5 mt-16" style="color: hsl(var(--b1) / var(--tw-bg-opacity))">Why would we be fucked yet?</h2>
<p class="text-center text-slate-800" style="color: hsl(var(--b1) / var(--tw-bg-opacity))">Well, look around! I give you a few reasons:</p>
<div class="flex flex-wrap justify-center gap-2 mt-12">
<div class="card w-96 bg-base-100 shadow-xl">
<figure><img src="/img/explosion.jpg" class="max-h-[200px] w-full object-cover" alt="Nuclear bomb explosion mushroom cloud" loading="lazy" /></figure>
<div class="card-body">
<h3 class="card-title">War</h3>
<p>A superpower in possession of nuclear weapons with a maniac leader started a war lately.</p>
<p>Which had all the world's people having wet dreams about any kind of more weapons go very excited.</p>
</div>
</div>
<div class="card w-96 bg-base-100 shadow-xl">
<figure><img src="/img/bundestag.jpg" class="max-h-[200px] w-full object-cover" alt="German Bundestag with German flag" loading="lazy" /></figure>
<div class="card-body">
<h3 class="card-title">Germany</h3>
<p>Trust me, you don't want to see headlines like <a class="link" href="https://text.npr.org/1087137501">Germany is supposedly building Europe's largest military</a>. Because, well, last time it went so well...</p>
<p>Ok, that one is a joke! Luckily it's not like that anymore.</p>
</div>
</div>
<div class="card w-96 bg-base-100 shadow-xl">
<figure><img src="/img/covid.jpg" class="max-h-[200px] w-full object-cover" alt="Earth depicted as corona virus - covid" loading="lazy" /></figure>
<div class="card-body">
<h3 class="card-title">Pandemic</h3>
<p>COVID-19 is still around, while not only having a huge death toll, producing long-term sickness and restricting our way of life as well as affecting mental health.</p>
</div>
</div>
<div class="card w-96 bg-base-100 shadow-xl">
<figure><img src="/img/desert.jpg" class="max-h-[200px] w-full object-cover" alt="Dry tree in sand desert" loading="lazy" /></figure>
<div class="card-body">
<h3 class="card-title">Climate Change</h3>
<p>
And then... There's climate change.
This fucker – <a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/un-climate-experts-to-the-world-were-already-fucked" class="link" title="external link to article about climate expert's view">without a doubt</a> – will make us, as a species with interplanetary ambitions and being relatively intelligent, hit the coffin.
If we're not going to pivot anytime soon, that is!
And we're doing very well to reach every single 'goal' here.
</p>
</div>
</div>
<div class="card w-96 bg-base-100 shadow-xl">
<figure><img src="/img/beer.jpg" class="max-h-[200px] w-full object-cover" alt="Beer bottle" loading="lazy" /></figure>
<div class="card-body">
<h3 class="card-title">Peak Beer</h3>
<p>
Germany is running out of beer or at <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61490433" class="link" title="external link to article about beer bottle shortage in Germany">least bottles for said beverage</a>.<br>
This is bad! If there wasn't enough beer in Germany god knows what could happen!
</p>
</div>
</div>
<div class="card w-96 bg-base-100 shadow-xl">
<figure><img src="/img/plankton.jpg" class="max-h-[200px] w-full object-cover" alt="Maritime Life - plankton" loading="lazy" /></figure>
<div class="card-body">
<h3 class="card-title">Killing Marine Life</h3>
<p>
We're (well, our pollution) killing marine wildlife, <a href="https://www.sundaypost.com/fp/humanity-will-not-survive-extinction-of-most-marine-plants-and-animals/" class="link" title="external link to article about beer bottle shortage in Germany">especially plankton *</a>.<br>
Since plankton is one of the very roots in marine food chain this is awful in so many ways.
With plankton missing, most maritime species are going to die. And so are we!
<span class="text-xs mt-4 block">* It's only one data point and most likely not as bad as they write! Still we should take more care of our ecosystems!</span>
</p>
</div>
</div>
<div class="card w-96 bg-base-100 shadow-xl">
<figure><img src="/img/drought.jpg" class="max-h-[200px] w-full object-cover" alt="Soil dried by drought" loading="lazy" /></figure>
<div class="card-body">
<h3 class="card-title">Drought</h3>
<p>
2022 brought large parts of the northern hemisphere another pretty plague...
Europe, the US and China suffered (and are still suffering at the time of writing this) from the worst drought for 500 years.
We didn't have real rain for about 8 weeks where I live which is very unusual.
</p>
</div>
</div>
<div class="card w-96 bg-base-100 shadow-xl">
<figure><img src="/img/deforestation.jpg" class="max-h-[200px] w-full object-cover" alt="Deforestation" loading="lazy" /></figure>
<div class="card-body">
<h3 class="card-title">Deforestation</h3>
<p>
Wood pellets used to create heat in special furnaces are supposed to be a bit more climate friendly since, in theory, they're using a renewable source.<br>
Turns out (I know, you already guessed it) the technology <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/09/07/world/europe/eu-logging-wood-pellets.html" class="link" title="external link to NYT article about wood pellets leading to deforestation">leads to even more deforestation</a>, because people don't regrow enough forests but just burn the old ones.<br>
Oh my, we're soo good at this!
</p>
</div>
</div>
<div class="card w-96 bg-base-100 shadow-xl">
<figure><img src="/img/rain-forest.jpg" class="max-h-[200px] w-full object-cover" alt="Rain forest - well, should be offsetting carbon" loading="lazy" /></figure>
<div class="card-body">
<h3 class="card-title">Carbon offset</h3>
<p>
Carbon offset doesn't work.
It's basically <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jan/18/revealed-forest-carbon-offsets-biggest-provider-worthless-verra-aoe" class="link" title="external link to The Guardian article about Verra and carbon offset payments">just useless sh**</a>.
Who could have thought that buying yourself a clear conscience wouldn't work. I wouldn't even be surprised if it all was mostly an elaborate scam.
</p>
</div>
</div>
<div class="card w-96 bg-base-100 shadow-xl">
<figure><img src="/img/ai.jpg" class="max-h-[200px] w-full object-cover" alt="GPT4 as a computer chip illustration" loading="lazy" /></figure>
<div class="card-body">
<h3 class="card-title">AI</h3>
<p>
Fun fact: It might not be the singularity that kills us. Turns out a bit less than dumb text and conversation generator is sufficient.<br>
Why? Because those generators are very confident in what they're 'saying', even if it's utter nonsense.
While, until now, we had to rely on windbags like Trump, now everyone can create truthful sounding lies without much effort.
And hoping for people double (fact) checking what they read seems to be very optimistic to me.
</p>
</div>
</div>
<div class="card w-96 bg-base-100 shadow-xl">
<figure><img src="/img/robot.jpg" class="max-h-[200px] w-full object-cover" alt="Futurist robot that could be a killer robot" loading="lazy" /></figure>
<div class="card-body">
<h3 class="card-title">Military AI</h3>
<p>
Have I mentioned AI?<br>
Ah, yes, so <a href="https://www.vice.com/en/article/4a33gj/ai-controlled-drone-goes-rogue-kills-human-operator-in-usaf-simulated-test" class="link" title="external link to VICE article about AI Drone killing operator">the military is running tests</a> here as well.<br>
And boy, they're doing great!
I mean, this was a <s>simulation</s> thought experiment, but it still shows how <em>creative</em> an AI could get to reach its target.
So might get to the killer AI, after all!
</p>
</div>
</div>
<div class="card w-96 bg-base-100 shadow-xl">
<figure><img src="/img/windows.jpg" class="max-h-[200px] w-full object-cover" alt="Windows as part of the deadly trio" loading="lazy" /></figure>
<div class="card-body">
<h3 class="card-title">The deadly trio</h3>
<p>
The IT Security related deadliest Software combination definitely is related to Windows + Outlook/MS Office + Active Directory/ADFS.<br>
Well, trio somehow sounds better than quintet, so I left out Exchange. On the other hand that way we would get to the four horseman of the apocalypse...<br>
Or to make it short: Microsoft plays a big role in Software related apocalypse.
</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<p class="mt-16 text-center">
<a class="btn btn-primary animate-bounce" href="#mytake" title="Read the author's take">The author's take!</a>
</p>
</main>
<section class="min-h-screen flex grow-1 justify-center flex-row mt-12 w-min-full" id="mytake">
<div class="w-min-[250px] w-max-[100%] lg:w-[640px] p-4">
<h2 class="text-4xl font-bold mb-5 mt-16">The author's take</h2>
<div class="block md:inline-block md:w-[30%] mb-4 md:mr-4">
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</div>
<div class="block md:inline-block md:w-2/3 md:align-top">
<p class="mb-4">Although there are many bad things happening right now there's still hope.</p>
<p>So no, I don't think that we're fucked yet, but nonetheless, we're pretty close!</p>
</div>
<div>
<h3 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-3 mt-12">The war in Ukraine?</h3>
<p class="mb-4">Yep, it is bad and war is always bad. But it's not WW3.
And right now I don't think it's going to happen.</p>
<p class="mb-4">We still have some options left to make this war either stop or at least not making it spread.</p>
<p class="mb-4">There are many people right now screaming for military actions or at least building or buying fancy weapons (also <a href="https://www.sipri.org/media/press-release/2022/global-nuclear-arsenals-are-expected-grow-states-continue-modernize-new-sipri-yearbook-out-now" class="link" title="external link to article about expected nuclear arsenal growth">growing the nuclear arsenal</a>).
In my opinion, these people want war. They're much like that maniac president who started the war. Don't listen to them!</p>
</div>
<h3 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-3 mt-12">Why don't we interfere, you might ask?</h3>
<div class="block md:inline-block md:w-2/3 md:align-top">
<p class="mb-4">Well, unfortunately that one is easy. And it's probably good that it's easy!</p>
<p class="mb-4">Because, given one NATO country starts battling with the Russian Federation (or the other way around), this will get every NATO member into a war against Russia.
If and when this happens, the world as we know it will most likely be over.</p>
</div>
<div class="block md:inline-block md:w-[30%] mb-4 md:mr-4">
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</div>
<p class="mb-4">It's pretty safe to assume that someone with Putin's personality will try to get at his enemies at every cost.
Which means: They will start attacking with nuclear weapons pretty soon.</p>
<p class="mb-4">There's a phrase which (paraphrasing) goes like this:</p>
<q class="quote italic ml-4">In a war there will mainly be losers on both sides.</q>
<p class="mt-4 mb-4">In a nuclear war there will only be losers globally. Each and every one will lose.</p>
<div class="block md:inline-block md:w-[30%] mb-4 md:mr-4">
<figure><img src="/img/nuclearbomb.png" class="max-h-[200px] w-auto block m-auto" alt="Nuclear bomb" loading="lazy" /></figure>
</div>
<div class="block md:inline-block md:w-2/3 md:align-top">
<p class="mb-4">Their livelihood, their relatives, their friends and pretty much likely their lives.</p>
<p class="mb-4">The reason for that is: If one nuclear power started sending out only one nuclear warhead, the other side will try to eradicate the aggressor by all means before they'll start another one.
I can't stretch this enough! One nuclear weapon will most likely lead to total destruction of most of the world.</p>
</div>
<p class="mb-4">NATO countries will start everything they have trying to prevent Russia from starting any more nuclear weapons.
Which Russia will counter with throwing at them everything they still got. The same is valid for the other way around.</p>
<p class="mb-4">That being said, mot of the time the situation always will be a bit more complicated.
However, countries will follow some kind of
<a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/06/russia-ukraine-nuclear-weapon-us-response/661315/" class="link" title="external link to The Atlantic article about possible nuclear weapons use in Ukraine">escalation ladder</a>, depending on the initial aggressor's degree of the attack.
</p>
<p class="mb-4 relative block">
If you're interested in this topic and want to read a fictional story about it, I can really recommend
<img class="affiliate absolute right-0" style="display: none" border="0" loading="lazy" src="https://ws-eu.amazon-adsystem.com/widgets/q?_encoding=UTF8&ASIN=1529076935&Format=_SL110_&ID=AsinImage&MarketPlace=DE&ServiceVersion=20070822&WS=1&tag=awfaffiliate-21&language=de_DE" alt="Ken Follet Never book cover">
<a class="affiliate link" href="https://amzn.to/3NzZXrO" rel="sponsored nofollow">Ken Follet's latest book <q>Never</q> <span class="text-xs affiliate text">(Affiliate link!)</span></a>.
I've recently read this book and can very much recommend it.
</p>
<p class="mb-4 relative block">
Also, there's that interesting and a bit depressing <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M7hOpT0lPGI" class="link" title="external link to YouTube video about nuclear war">TEDx Talk by Brian Toon about nuclear wars</a>:
<a class="relative w-full h-[400px] overflow-hidden js-youtube" data-src="https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/M7hOpT0lPGI" href="#">
<span>
<span class="absolute flex p-8">
<span class="justify-center items-center bg-base-100 p-2 text-center">
By clicking the preview you hereby consent to allow YouTube's cookies and tracking functionality (consent will be saved for 1 week). <br><br>
<b class="btn btn-default">Consent</b>
</span>
</span>
<img src="https://i.ytimg.com/vi_webp/M7hOpT0lPGI/sddefault.webp" alt="Just a youtube video preview" loading="lazy" />
</span>
</a>
</p>
<h4 class="text-xl font-bold mb-3 mt-12">Would anyone survive?</h4>
<p class="mb-4">Yep, but for many of them life will be real torture.
Most will be sick (not only by radiation), starve or be involved into major and minor wars and conflicts.
Technology, electrical energy and heating will be rare and expensive.
Many of us would have to be farmers, gatherers and hunters, again.</p>
<p class="mb-4">But! There's a bright side (You should know by now that I like to be sarcastic)!
The following nuclear winters and the destruction of most of our industries might prevent the worst effects of climate change from happening.</p>
<p class="mb-4">
If you're still in a playful mood you might want to try the <a href="https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/" class="link" title="external link to nuclear bomb's impact simulator">nukemap simulator</a> to get a picture of what nuclear weapons can and can not do.
</p>
<h3 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-3 mt-16">And Climate change?</h3>
<div class="block md:inline-block md:w-2/3 md:align-top">
<p class="mb-4">In the long run this is even scarier.</p>
<p class="mb-4">Based on the <a href="https://gar.undrr.org/" class="link" title="external link to UN global assessment report">UN Global Assessment Report</a>
you can find different pieces, like what you're currently reading, <a href="https://futurism.com/the-byte/un-spiral-self-destruction" class="link" title="external link">warning of doomsday</a> related to climate change.
</p>
<p class="mb-4">Given, we managed to avoid total annihilation, the following task at hand is even more difficult.
We will have to pivot our way of life. Instead of economic growth we have to change to a more sustainable way of life.</p>
</div>
<div class="block md:inline-block md:w-[30%] mb-4 md:mr-4">
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</div>
<p class="mb-4">
In the short run this might be painful, but, in the long run, it will save us and most of our technology and scientific achievements.
So please, try to do your thing by saving energy, eating local food and try conserving and using stuff as long as possible.
And holding companies accountable for their actions and waste production.
</p>
<p class="mb-4 block relative">
But it doesn't stop there: Agriculture right now does many things wrong and relies heavily on Carbon Fuel based technologies (like fertilizers).
The good thing, <a href="https://kissthegroundmovie.com/" class="link" title="external link to movie about agriculture and soil regeneration">there might be a solution</a>:
<a class="relative w-full h-[400px] overflow-hidden js-youtube" data-src="https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/3iknWWKZOUs" href="#">
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<p class="mb-4 block">
And if you really want to make a difference, check out my friend Tiago's app <a href="https://changeit.app/" class="link" title="external link to changeit app">Changeit</a>.
There's also a <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/climatechange/comments/mzo1oo/are_we_fucked/" class="link" title="external link to reddit discussion about if we're fucked yet">discussion about this site's very topic on reddit</a>.
<br>
Also, <a href="https://www.globalgoals.org/goals/" class="link" title="external link to list about what to do to make the world a better place">the global goals list</a> gives you an overview about what we could do to make the world a better place, including possible actions.
</p>
<p class="mb-4 block relative">
Although I don't agree with everything written in <img class="affiliate absolute right-0" style="display: none" border="0" loading="lazy" src="https://ws-eu.amazon-adsystem.com/widgets/q?_encoding=UTF8&ASIN=0241448301&Format=_SL110_&ID=AsinImage&MarketPlace=DE&ServiceVersion=20070822&WS=1&tag=awfaffiliate-21&language=de_DE" alt="Bill Gates book How to Avoid a Climate Disaster cover">
<a class="affiliate link" href="https://amzn.to/3usTVS2" rel="sponsored nofollow">Bill Gate's <q>How to Avoid a Climate Disaster</q> <span class="text-xs affiliate text">(Affiliate link!)</span></a>, it's definitely worth a read if you're interested in this topic.
</p>
<p class="mb-4">
At least in parts we seem <a href="https://sites.google.com/view/sources-can-we-fix-climate/" class="link" title="external link to article about the better parts of our current journey">to be on a good way</a>, although the development could be way faster.
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