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\huge{\textbf{Comparing Smoothing and Forecasting for various types of Mean's Moving Average and Moving Median}}\\

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\Large{Submitted by\\
BIshal Sarker}\\
\Large{Roll of the submitter\\
JN-33008}\\

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\Large{Supervised by\\
Rownok Jahan Tamanna}\\
\Large{Lecturer, ISRT} \\

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\Large{This project report submitted in partial fulllment of the requirement for the}\\
\Large{degree of B.S Honors in Applied Statistics.} \\
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\Large{Institute of Statistical Research and Training(I.S.R.T) \\
University of Dhaka} \\
\Large{April, 2022}\\

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\Huge{Declaration}
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\normalsize{
I certify that the project report entitled as "Comparison of simple Moving Average Smoothing and Forecasting for different Means and Moving Median" submitted as a partial requirement for the degree of B.S. Honors in Applied Statistics is the result of
my own research, except where otherwise acknowledged, and that this report in whole or in part has not been submitted for an award, including a higher degree, to any other university or institution.\\

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Name: Bishal Sarker\\

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Signature: ............................. \\

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Date:....................................
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\Huge{Acknowledgement}
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It is my proud privilege to release the feelings of my gratitude to several persons who helped me directly or indirectly to conduct this project work.

At first I would like to thank Almighty, the most Gracious, Merciful and beneficial, for showing me the way to acquire knowledge in Applied Statistics and helping me to complete this project successfully . 

I am highly indebted to my project mentor, Rownak Jahan Tamanna, Lecturer, ISRT, for her support throughout the tenure of my project in spite of her tighted schedule.

Finally, I am grateful to members of my family, particularly to my sister, for her continuous support and encouragement throughout the entire period of my study.\\

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\Huge{Dedicated\\
to\\
My Parents and My Sister}
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\Huge{Abstract}
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\normalsize{

There are many smoothing and  forecasting techniques available and selecting the appropriate technique is very important issue to achieve a good smoothing and  forecasting performance. This study intends to compare different mean's moving average  smoothing techniques and later used them  for time series forecasting. The smoothing process using simple moving average for different means such as arithmetic mean, geometric mean, quadratic mean, cubic mean and moving median are compared here and later forecasting based on them also compare. Some error measures - Mean Error, Mean Absolute Error, and Mean Square Error are calculated for above smoothing techniques to compare the smoothing accuracy of these methods. And error measures - Mean Error, Mean Absolute Error,  Mean Square Error and Theil's U are calculated for above forecasting techniques to compare the forecasting accuracy of these methods. The study helps to find out why by saying single moving average one usually means arithmetic moving average. 

}