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PostIndustrialJournalism.tex
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\chapter{Introduction: The Transformation of American Journalism Is Unavoidable}
This essay is part survey and part manifesto, one that concerns itself with the practice
of journalism and the practices of journalists in the United States. It is not,
however, about ``the future of the news industry,'' both because much of that future
is already here and because there is no such thing as the news industry anymore.
There used to be one, held together by the usual things that hold an industry
together: similarity of methods among a relatively small and coherent group of
businesses, and an inability for anyone outside that group to produce a competitive
product. Those conditions no longer hold true.
If you wanted to sum up the past decade of the news ecosystem in a single phrase,
it might be this: Everybody suddenly got a lot more freedom. The newsmakers,
the advertisers, the startups, and, especially, the people formerly known as the
audience have all been given new freedom to communicate, narrowly and broadly,
outside the old strictures of the broadcast and publishing models. The past 15 years
have seen an explosion of new tools and techniques, and, more importantly, new
assumptions and expectations, and these changes have wrecked the old clarity.
There’s no way to look at organizations as various as \href{http://www.texastribune.org/}{the Texas Tribune},
\href{http://www.scotusblog.com/}{SCOTUSblog} and \href{http://frontporchforum.com/}{Front Porch Forum} or such platforms as Facebook, YouTube
and Storify and see anything like coherence. There’s no way to look at new
experiments in nonprofit journalism like Andy Carvin’s work at NPR during
the Arab Spring and convince yourself that journalism is securely in the hands
of for-profit businesses. And there’s no way to look at experiments in funding
journalism via Kickstarter, or the coverage of protest movements via mobile
phone, and convince yourself that making information public can be done only
by professionals and institutions.
Many of the changes talked about in the last decade as part of the future landscape
of journalism have already taken place; much of journalism’s imagined
future is now its lived-in present. (As William Gibson noted long ago, ``The
future is already here. It’s just unevenly distributed.'') Our goal is to write about
what has already happened and what is happening today, and what we can learn
from it, rather than engaging in much speculation.
The effect of the current changes in the news ecosystem has already been a
reduction in the quality of news in the United States. On present evidence, we
are convinced that journalism in this country will get worse before it gets better,
and, in some places (principally midsize and small cities with no daily paper) it
will get markedly worse. Our hope is to limit the scope, depth and duration of
that decay by pointing to ways to create useful journalism using tools, techniques
and assumptions that weren’t even possible 10 years ago.
We also highlight the ways new possibilities for journalism require new forms of
organization. Traditional news organizations have tended to conserve both working
methods and hierarchy, even as the old business models are collapsing, and
even when new opportunities do not fit in those old patterns. In interview after
interview with digitally focused members of the traditional press, the theme of
being thwarted by process came up. Adapting to a world where the people formerly
known as the audience are not readers and viewers but users and publishers
will mean changing not just tactics but also self-conception. Merely bolting
on a few new techniques will not be enough to adapt to the changing ecosystem;
taking advantage of access to individuals, crowds and machines will mean changing
organizational structure as well. (We recognize that many existing organizations
will regard these recommendations as anathema.)
This essay is written for multiple audiences—traditional news organizations
interested in adapting as well as new entrants (whether individual journalists,
news startups or organizations not previously part of the journalistic ecosystem)—
and those organizations and entities that affect the news ecosystem, particularly
governments and journalism schools, but also businesses and nonprofits.
We start with five core beliefs:
\begin{itemize}
\item Journalism matters.
\item Good journalism has always been subsidized.
\item The internet wrecks advertising subsidy.
\item Restructuring is, therefore, a forced move.
\item \textbf{\emph{There are many opportunities for doing good work in new ways.}}
\end{itemize}
\subsection{Journalism Matters}
Journalism exposes corruption, draws attention to injustice, holds politicians
and businesses accountable for their promises and duties. It informs citizens and
consumers, helps organize public opinion, explains complex issues and clarifies
essential disagreements. Journalism plays an irreplaceable role in both democratic
politics and market economies.
The current crisis for the institutions of American journalism convinces us of
two things. First, there is no way to preserve or restore the shape of journalism
as it has been practiced for the past 50 years, and, second, it is imperative that
we collectively find new ways to do the kind of journalism needed to keep the
United States from sliding into casual self-dealing and venality.
Not all journalism matters, of course. Much of what is produced today is simply
entertainment or diversion, but here, we grapple only with what has variously
been called ``hard news,'' ``accountability journalism'' or ``the iron core of news.''
Hard news is what matters in the current crisis. Rather than try to list or define
the elements that separate hard news from the fluff, we have simply adopted
Lord Northcliffe’s famous litmus test: ``News is something someone somewhere
doesn’t want printed. Everything else is advertising.''
This does not mean that the output of news organizations can be cleanly divided
into two categories, hard news and fluff. Sometimes a business section will run
stories on tie colors; sometimes the lifestyle section will break business news in
the fashion world. As we write this, the New York Daily News home page features
one story on Miley Cyrus’ new haircut and another on the city’s stubbornly
high unemployment rate.
Even with that spectrum recognized, however, hard news is what distinguishes
journalism from just another commercial activity. There will always be a public
appetite for reporting on baseball, movie stars, gardening and cooking, but it’s of
no great moment for the country if all of that work were taken over by amateurs
or done by machine. What is of great moment is reporting on important and true
stories that can change society. The reporting on the Catholic Church’s persistent
harboring of child rapists, Enron’s fraudulent accounting and the scandal over the
Justice Department’s Operation Fast and Furious are all such stories.
Because telling true stories is vital, the value of journalism can’t be reduced to
other, ancillary needs. Journalism performs multiple overlapping functions, and
there never used to be much urgency in defining those functions. In the period
in which public speech was scarce (which is to say, all of history until now),
journalism was simply what journalists did, journalists were just people hired by
publishers, and publishers were the relative handful of people who had access to
the means of making speech public.
We believe that the role of the journalist—as truth-teller, sense-maker, explainer—
cannot be reduced to a replaceable input for other social systems; journalists are
not merely purveyors of facts. Now and for the foreseeable future, we need a
cadre of full-time workers who report the things someone somewhere doesn’t
want reported, and who do it in a way that doesn’t just make information available
(a commodity we are currently awash in), but frames that information so
that it reaches and affects the public.
An increasing amount of firsthand reporting is done by citizens—much of our
sense of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster in Japan and the Pearl Roundabout
massacre in Bahrain came from individuals on the ground—but this does
not mean that all professional journalists will, can or should be replaced. Instead it
means that their roles will change, overlapping with the individuals (and crowds
and machines) whose presence characterizes the new news environment.
\subsection{Good Journalism Has Always Been Subsidized}
The question of subsidies for news has been a hot issue for some time now.
Observers of the news environment such as Steve Coll, David Swensen and
Michael Schmidt, and Michael Schudson and Len Downie have suggested that
the U.S. press should move toward a more explicitly subsidized model, a suggestion
that generated heated responses from other observers—Jeff Jarvis, Jack Shafer,
Alan Mutter—who insist that only a commercial press produces the necessary
resources and freedom that the U.S. press requires.
We believe that this is a false dichotomy. Subsidies are often regarded as synonymous
with direct government funding, which would raise obvious and serious
concerns, but subsidy, in the sense of support granted to work seen to be in the public good, comes in many flavors. It can be direct or indirect, and it can
come from public or private sources. Citizen donations are as much a subsidy
as government grants.
Good journalism has always been subsidized; markets have never supplied as
much news as democracy demands. The most obvious form is indirect public
subsidy: Radio and TV enjoy free access to the airwaves, in return for which
fielding a credible news operation is (or was) the quid pro quo. Businesses
are forced to pay for legal notices in newspapers. Print publications are given
favorable postage rates.
There has been some good news in the form of direct reader fees for digital
properties, using the ``payment after a page-view threshold'' model. These fees
are obviously welcome; however, few large publications implementing them have
managed to get to even 5 percent adoption by their web users, and the page
threshold virtually guarantees that most such users will never be asked to pay. As
a result, though the new income serves to slow the reduction of revenue, it does
not stop it, much less reverse it.
The biggest source of subsidy in the news environment has always been indirect
and private, coming from advertisers. As Henry Luce put it 75 years ago, ``If we
have to be subsidized by anybody, we think that the advertiser presents extremely
interesting possibilities.''
There are a few publications in the news business whose audience pays directly
for the journalists’ work, but they are a tiny fraction of the news ecosystem,
clustered around professional practices (finance, law, medicine), with a handful of
outliers, such as Ms. magazine, selling freedom from advertising. Most outlets for
news aren’t in the news business but the advertising business.
The most important thing about the relationship between advertising and journalism
is that there isn’t one. The link between advertiser and publisher isn’t a
partnership, it’s a sales transaction, one in which the publisher has (or had) the
upper hand. The essential source of advertiser subsidy is lack of choice; so long as
businesses have to rely on publishers to get seen, publishers can use the proceeds
to pay for journalism, regardless of advertiser preference. Nine West doesn’t care about keeping the Washington bureau open; it just wants to sell shoes. But in order to reach potential Nine West customers, it has to pay an organization that
does care about the Washington bureau.
In addition to advertising, many other forms of private subsidy exist. For most
of U.S. history, some owners have been willing to publish newspapers and magazines
at a loss, in return for prestige or influence. Both the New Yorker and the
New York Post bleed red ink; their continued existence in their current form
involves a decision by their wealthy owners that they should not be completely
exposed to the market. These kinds of publications are de facto nonprofits.
Similarly, family ownership of newspapers provided a shield from demands for
short-term profits, in part because the publisher was typically willing to take
some compensation in status goods (salary aside, it was good to be the publisher
of the local paper) and in part because family ownership meant managing for
long-term viability, as opposed to immediate revenue extraction, another form
of being in the market but not of it.
Though recent conversation about subsidy and journalism has mainly focused
on governmental rather than private provision, the various forms of subsidy are
quite entangled. General Motors and Diageo spend significant sums annually on
30-second spots or full-page ads because they are legally stuck with brand advertising.
GM might want to sell directly from the factory, as Dell does, and Diageo
might be happy to offer a click-to-buy button, as Ghirardelli does, but state law
forbids them to use direct marketing. Brand advertising for cars and trucks and
beer and booze is propped up by government-mandated subsidy that prevents
the affected businesses from investing in the alternatives.
The American public has never paid full freight for the news gathering done in
our name. It has always been underwritten by sources other than the readers,
listeners or viewers. This essay does not concern itself with where future subsidy
can or should come from or how it should be directed. Income can come from
advertisers, sponsors, users, donors, patrons or philanthropies; cost reductions can
come from partnerships, outsourcing, crowdsourcing or automation. There is no
one answer: Any way of keeping costs below revenue is a good way, whether an
organization is large or small, niche or general, for-profit or nonprofit. What is
clear is that the model long adopted by the majority of news outlets—a commercial
entity that subsidizes the newsroom with advertising dollars—is in trouble.
\subsection{The Internet Wrecks Advertising Subsidy}
This report is concerned with the way journalists do their jobs rather than the
business practices of the institutions that support them. However, the business
practices intersect journalistic practices in one critical way: Advertiser support,
the key source of subsidy for American journalism since the 1830s, is evaporating.
(Indeed, for newspapers, much of it is already gone, but more bad news is coming
for newspapers, and for magazines, radio and TV as well.)
Advertisers have never had any interest in supporting news outlets per se; the
link between advertising revenue and journalists’ salaries was always a function
of the publishers’ ability to extract the revenue. This worked well in the 20th
century, when the media business was a seller’s market. But it does not work
well today.
The disruption began in earnest in the 1990s, with the launch of the commercial
web, though it was masked for a decade by rising ad revenue for traditional publishers
and by the dot-com bust, which convinced many publishers that they had overestimated
the threat from the internet. Traditional ad revenue began to fall in 2006,
but by that time the alteration of the underlying advertising market was already
well along; lost income was a trailing indicator of a transformed environment.
Legacy publishers don’t sell content as a product. They are in the service business,
with vertical integration of content, reproduction and delivery. A news station
similarly maintains the capabilities to send out its material over cable or satellite; a
magazine runs or contracts for both printing services and distribution networks.
Vertical integration carries high capital costs, reducing competition and sometimes
creating a bottleneck where the public could be induced to pay.
The internet wrecks vertical integration, because everyone pays for the infrastructure,
then everyone gets to use it. The audience remains more than willing
to pay for reproduction and distribution, but now we pay Dell for computers,
Canon for printers, and Verizon for delivery, rather than paying Conde Nast,
Hearst or Tribune Co. for all those services in a bundle.
When people want to read on paper, we are increasingly printing it ourselves,
at a miniature press three feet away, on demand, rather than paying someone
else to print it, 20 miles away, yesterday. When we want to listen to audio or
watch video, we increasingly use the commodity infrastructure of the internet,
rather than purpose-built (and -funded) infrastructure of broadcast towers and
cable networks.
Publishers also typically engage in horizontal integration, bundling hard news
with horoscopes, gossip, recipes, sports. Simple inertia meant anyone who had
tuned into a broadcast or picked up a publication for one particular story would
keep watching or reading whatever else was in the bundle. Though this was often
called loyalty, in most cases it was just laziness—the path of least resistance meant
that reading another good-enough story in the local paper was easier than seeking
out an excellent story in a separate publication.
The web wrecks horizontal integration. Prior to the web, having a dozen goodbut-
not-great stories in one bundle used to be enough to keep someone from
hunting for the dozen best stories in a dozen different publications. In a world of
links and feeds, however, it is often easier to find the next thing you read, watch
or listen to from your friends than it is to stick with any given publication. Laziness
now favors unbundling; for many general interest news sites, the most common
category of reader is one who views a single article in a month.
On top of all this, of course, is heightened competition. As Nicholas Carr noted
in 2009, a Google search for stories about the U.S. Navy rescue of a U.S. cargo
ship captain held hostage by Somali pirates returned 11,264 possible outlets for
the story, the vast majority of them simply running the same syndicated copy.
The web significantly erodes the value of running identical wire service stories
in St. Louis and San Luis Obispo.
In addition to the changes wrought by technology, the spread of social media
has created a new category of ads that are tied to media without subsidizing the
creation of content. In the 1990s, many websites had discussion boards that generated
enormous user interest but little revenue, because advertisers didn’t regard
user-created material as ``brand-safe.''
MySpace was the first big site to overcome that obstacle. Like the junk-bond
transformation of the 1980s, MySpace made the argument that low-quality ad
inventory was a good buy if enough of it was aggregated, at a low enough price.
The pitch to advertisers was essentially ``Even at miniscule click-thru rates, there
is a price at which MySpace page views are worth it to you.''
This opened the floodgates. Once enough businesses decided that social networks
were acceptable venues, the available media inventory became a function
of people’s (limitless) interest in one another, rather than being a function
of publishers’ ability to create interesting content or maintain an audience.
When demand creates supply at a cost barely above zero, it has a predictable
effect on price.
The past 15 years have also seen the rise of advertising as a stand-alone service.
The loss of classified ads to superior services like Craigslist, HotJobs and
OkCupid has been widely commented on; less noticed is the rise of user-to-user
recommendations in a transactional environment, as on Salesforce or Amazon.
These recommendations take on some of the functions of business-to-business
or business-to-consumer advertising, while involving no subsidy of content (or
even a payment to anyone who looks like a publisher). Those services themselves
also provide little or no subsidy for media outlets: after a 15-month test of television
advertising, Amazon abandoned TV for most products, concluding that the
ads would be less effective in driving sales than spending the same amount of
money to provide free shipping.
Even publishers who understand that the lost revenue will not be replaced, and
that print revenue (and production) will continue to wane, hold out hope that
the change in advertising subsidy can somehow be reversed.
The fact that the web, a visually flexible medium, has nevertheless been more
readily adapted to direct marketing than brand advertising was a disappointment
to publishers, who have always benefited disproportionately from brand advertising.
Over the past decade, there have been periodic assertions that the direct
marketing version of web advertising is a phase and that someone will reinvent
brand advertising online. This is essentially an assertion that advertisers will start
handing over significant sums of money for animated graphics or time in the
video stream, while expecting little in return but the assurance that they have
somehow built awareness.
This seems unlikely. The shift from the logic of brand advertising to the logic of
direct marketing is just a symptom of the larger change driven by the web, which
is the victory, everywhere, of measurement. What made brand advertising profitable
was that no one really knew how it worked, so no one really knew how to
optimize it—making a TV commercial was more like making a tiny Hollywood
film than it was like running a giant psych experiment.
Online, businesses increasingly expect even brand advertising will have measurable
results, and measurable ad spending disrupts the high margins of the good
years. John Wanamaker’s endlessly quoted line about not knowing which half of
his advertising budget was wasted explains why measurability in advertising puts
further pressure on revenue.
Another source of hope for restoration of ad revenue was the internet’s improved
specificity (``You can target only real estate lawyers in Montana!''). It was widely
assumed that this narrow targeting would lead to defensibly high advertising rates
for at least some websites; better targeting would yield better results, and this
would make a higher premium worth the cost.
The shift to cheap advertising with measurable outcomes, however, wrecks much
of the logic of targeting as well. To take a simplified example, it costs about 60
cents to reach a thousand people with untargeted web advertising. Ad space that
costs \$12 per thousand viewers (a widely discussed estimate in 2010 for certain
niche sites) may well be more efficient because of targeting, but to make economic
sense, the targeted ad would have to be 2,000 percent more efficient. Any
less, and the junk inventory is more cost-effective.
Because ads can now appear on social media, the junk end of the cost curve is
very low indeed, low enough to exert continued pull on the higher prices for
targeted ads. Businesses don’t care about reaching people with ads. Businesses
care about selling things. The ability to understand who actually buys their products
or services online means that many advertisers can arbitrage expensive and
cheap ads at will.
There may yet be some undiscovered source of advertising revenue, but to restore
the fortunes of ad-supported journalism, this philosopher’s stone must be available
to publishers but not to social media or advertising-as-service sites. To justify
the return to formerly high rates, it must be dramatically more effective than any
current advertising method. And it must generate revenue immune to price pressure
from large-scale competition.
On current evidence, these conditions seem unlikely. Publishers’ power over
advertisers is evanescing; since the appearance of the web, a huge shift has occurred
in net value per advertising dollar from the publisher back to the advertiser, and
more signs are pointing to that trend increasing than reversing. Even publishers
willing to bet their businesses on this kind of salvation should consider alternative
plans for continuing to produce good journalism should the advertising subsidy
continue to decline.
\subsection{Restructuring Is a Forced Move}
The broadly negative turn in the fortunes of legacy news businesses leads us to
two conclusions: News has to become cheaper to produce, and cost reduction
must be accompanied by a restructuring of organizational models and processes.
Many factors point to further reductions in ad revenue and few point to increases
in the next few years. Though the most precipitate revenue collapse is over, we
are nevertheless writing this in the 23rd consecutive quarter of year-on-year
revenue decline. The past three years of decline have taken place during a period
of economic growth; in addition to the cumulative effects of revenue loss, the
inability to raise revenue even in a growing economy suggests that legacy media
firms will suffer disproportionately when the next recession begins, as it doubtless
will within a few years.
Web advertising has never generated anything like the same revenue per reader,
mobile looks even worse, and the continuing rise in online advertising generally
is now often bypassing traditional news properties altogether. Meanwhile,
hoped-for sources of direct fees—pay walls, micropayments, mobile apps, digital
subscriptions—have either failed or underperformed.
Of these, digital subscriptions, as practiced at the \href{http://www.latimes.com/}{Los Angeles Times}, \href{http://www.startribune.com/}{Minneapolis
Star-Tribune}, \href{http://www.nytimes.com/}{New York Times} and others have done best, but even here
the net effect of subscriptions has not made up the print shortfall. Furthermore,
because most digital subscriptions are designed to increase print circulation, the
short-term effect of digital subscriptions has the immediate effect of making
the papers more reliant on print revenue, despite the long-term deterioration
of print.
We do not believe the continued erosion of traditional ad revenue will be made
up on other platforms over the next three to five years. For the vast majority
of news organizations, the next phase of their existence will resemble the last
one—cost reduction as a forced move, albeit in a less urgent (and, we hope,
more strategic) way, one that takes into account new news techniques and
organizational models.
In the 1980s, much academic ink was spilled over the ``productivity paradox,''
where businesses had invested heavily in information technology over the preceding
two decades, but, despite the capital outlay, had very little to show for
their efforts. A few firms, however, did show strong early productivity gains from
their embrace of IT. The companies that benefited didn’t just computerize existing
processes; they altered those processes at the same time that they brought
computers into the business and became a different kind of organization. By
contrast, companies that simply added computers to their existing processes produced
no obvious gains in output or efficiency.
We believe that a similar dynamic is at work today, one we’re calling post-industrial
journalism, a phrase first used by Doc Searls in 2001, to mean ``journalism
no longer organized around the norms of proximity to the machinery of production.''
(The original rationale of the newsroom was not managerial but practical—
the people producing the words had to be close to the machine, often in the
basement, that would reproduce their words.)
Observers of the news industry such as David Simon have noted, correctly, that
``doing more with less'' is the mantra of every publisher who’s just laid off a
dozen reporters and editors. However, because the ``with less'' part is a forced
move, we have to try to make the ``doing more'' part work, which means less
cynical press-release-speak about layoffs and more restructuring to take advantage
of new ways of doing journalism.
Post-industrial journalism assumes that the existing institutions are going to lose
revenue and market share, and that if they hope to retain or even increase their
relevance, they will have to take advantage of new working methods and processes
afforded by digital media.
This restructuring will mean rethinking every organizational aspect of news
production—increased openness to partnerships; increased reliance on publicly
available data; increased use of individuals, crowds and machines to produce raw
material; even increased reliance on machines to produce some of the output.
These kinds of changes will be wrenching, as they will affect both the daily routine
and self-conception of everyone involved in creating and distributing news.
But without them, the reduction in the money available for the production of
journalism will mean that the future holds nothing but doing less with less. No
solution to the present crisis will preserve the old models.
\subsection{There Are Many Opportunities for Doing Good Work in New Ways}
If you believe that journalism matters, and that there is no solution to the crisis,
then the only way to get the journalism we need in the current environment is
to take advantage of new possibilities.
Journalists now have access to far more information than previously, as a result
of everything from the transparency movement to the spread of sensor networks.
They have new tools for creating visual and interactive forms of explanation.
They have far more varied ways for their work to reach the public—the ubiquity
of search, the rise of stream-like sources (Facebook’s timeline, all of Twitter), the
wiki as a format for incorporating new information. All these developments have
expanded how the public can get and process the news.
Superdistribution—the forwarding of media through social networks—means
that a tiny publication with an important article can reach a huge audience
quickly and at no additional cost. The presence of networked video cameras
in people’s pockets means that an increasing amount of visual reporting comes
from citizens.
As new possibilities of information gathering, sense-making and distribution
proliferate, it’s possible to see organizations taking advantage of working methods
unavailable even 10 years ago, as with Narrative Science’s automating the
production of data-driven news; or ProPublica’s making data sets and templates
available for repeating a story, as with Dollars for Docs; or searching through
existing data to discover new insights, as independent financial fraud investigator
Harry Markopolos did with Bernie Madoff (one of the greatest missed journalistic
opportunities of the past decade).
The commonality to enterprising digital members of traditional organizations—
Anjali Mullany, formerly of the Daily News; John Keefe of WNYC; Gabriel
Dance at the Guardian in the U.S.—and digital news startups such as WyoFile,
Technically Philly and Poligraft is that they organize their assumptions and processes
around the newly possible, like making graphics interactive, providing the
audience with direct access to a database, soliciting photos and information from
the audience, or circulating a story via the social graph. It’s not clear that Poligraft
will be around in a decade (nor the Daily News, for that matter), but the experimentation
being done at these organizations exemplifies good use of new tools
to pursue journalistic goals.
The most exciting and transformative aspect of the current news environment is
taking advantage of new forms of collaboration, new analytic tools and sources
of data, and new ways of communicating what matters to the public. The bulk of
our recommendations later in this essay will focus on these opportunities.
\subsection{Defining ``Public'' and ``Audience,'' and the Special Case of the New York Times}
Before presenting the body of the report, we need to engage in a little throat
clearing about two contentious words—public and audience—as well as discussing
the special case of the New York Times as a uniquely poor proxy for the
general state of American journalism.
Public first. The concept of ``the public,'' the group of people on whose behalf
hard news is produced, is the ``god term'' of journalism, as James Carey put it:
\begin{quote}... the final term, the term without which nothing counts, and journalists
justify their actions, defend the craft, plead their case in terms of the
public’s right to know, their role as the representative of the public, and
their capacity to speak both to and for the public.
\end{quote}
The public is the group whose interests are to be served by the news ecosystem.
It is also very difficult to define cleanly.
The idea of ``the public'' has been core to American theorizing about news since
John Dewey’s famous response to Walter Lippmann in the 1920s. Lippmann
despaired that the average person in a mass society with complex economic
and technical workings could ever become the kind of informed citizen that
most democratic theory seemed to assume. Dewey, in response, argued that there
were multiple, overlapping publics that could be ``activated'' by the emergence
of particular issues. This notion of news outlets serving disparate but overlapping
publics has remained core to their organizational logic.
Since the emergence of Lippmann’s and Dewey’s competing views of mass media
and mass society, philosophers such as Jurgen Habermas, Nancy Fraser, James
Carey, Michael Schudson and Yochai Benkler have all made some conception of
the public sphere core to their work, enriching but complicating any account of
media whose role serves a (or the) public.
We will adopt the coward’s strategy of noting but not solving the dilemma.
We do not propose to provide a definition any more rigorous than this one:
\begin{quote}The public is that group of consumers or citizens who care about the
forces that shape their lives and want someone to monitor and report
on those forces so that they can act on that knowledge.
\end{quote}
This is an unsatisfying, question-begging definition, but it is at least respectful of
the welter of opinions about what actually constitutes a ``public.''
The word ``audience'' has become similarly problematic. When the media landscape
was cleanly divided into publishing (print, broadcast) vs. communication
(telegraph, then telephone), the concept of an audience was equally clean—the
mass of recipients of content produced and distributed by a publisher. Movies,
music, newspapers, books—all these had obvious audiences.
One of the most disruptive effects of the internet is to combine publishing and
communications models into a single medium. When someone on Twitter shares
a story with a couple of friends, it feels like a water cooler conversation of old.
When that same person shares that same story with a couple thousand people,
it feels like publishing, even though it’s the same tool and the same activity used
to send the story to just a few. Furthermore, every one of those recipients can
forward the story still further. The privileged position of the original publisher
has shrunk dramatically.
Observing a world where the members of the audience had become more than
recipients of information, the scholar Jay Rosen of New York University coined
the phrase ``The People Formerly Known as the Audience'' to describe the ways
in which previously quiescent groups of consumers had become creators and
annotators and judges and conduits for information. We adopt Rosen’s view of
this transformation here; however, writing out his formulation (or TPFKATA) is
too unwieldy.
We will therefore talk throughout about ``the audience''—keep in mind that we
mean by that the people formerly known as the audience, newly endowed with
an unprecedented degree of communicative agency.
Finally, a note about why we will not be concentrating very much on the fate of
the New York Times. A remarkable amount of what has been written about the
fortunes of American journalism over the past decade has centered on the question
of what will happen to the Times. We believe this focus has been distracting.
In the last generation, the Times has gone from being a great daily paper, in
competition with several other such papers, to being a cultural institution of
unique and global importance, even as those papers—the Washington Post, Chicago
Tribune, Los Angeles Times, Miami Herald, among others—have shrunk their coverage and their ambitions. This puts the Times in a category of one. Any
sentence that begins ``Let’s take the New York Times as an example ...'' is thus
liable to explain or describe little about the rest of the landscape.
The Times newsroom is a source of much interesting experimentation—data
visualizations, novel partnerships, integration of blogs—and we have talked to
many of our friends and colleagues there in an effort to learn from their experiences
and make recommendations for other news organizations. However,
because the Times is in a category of one, the choices its management can make,
and the outcomes of those choices, are not illustrative or predictive for most
other news organizations, large or small, old or new. We will therefore spend
comparatively little time discussing its fate. While the Times serves as an inspiration
for news organizations everywhere, it is less useful as a model or bellwether
for other institutions.
\subsection{Organization}
This essay is written with several audiences in mind—startups, traditional organizations
trying to adapt, journalism schools, and organizations that support or
shape the ecosystem, from the Pulitzer Prize Board to the U.S. government.
After this introduction are three main sections: Journalists, Institutions
and Ecosystem.
We start by asking what individual journalists can and should do today, because
their work matters most, and because the obsessive focus on institutional survival
in recent years has hidden an obvious truth—institutions matter because they
support the work of journalists, not vice versa.
We next ask what institutions can do to support the work of journalists. We are
not using the word ``institution'' in its colloquial sense of ``legacy news organization,''
but rather in its sociological sense of ``a group of people and assets with
relatively stable patterns of behavior.'' Huffington Post is as much of an institution
as Harper’s; we are as interested in the institutionalization of current news
startups as we are in the adaptation of old institutions to new realities.
Finally, we examine the news ecosystem, by which we mean those aspects of
news production not under the direct control of any one institution. The current
ecosystem contains new assets, such as an explosion in digital data and computational
power. It also contains new opportunities, such as the ability to form
low-cost partnerships and consortia, and it contains forces that affect news organizations,
from the assumptions and support or obstacles produced by schools,
businesses and governments.
In our brief conclusion, we extrapolate several of the current forces out to the
end of the decade and describe what we believe some of the salient features of
the news environment of 2020 will be.
We do not imagine that any one organization can act on all or even a majority
of our recommendations; the recommendations are too various and directed at
too many different kinds of actors. We also don’t imagine that these recommendations
add up to a complete strategic direction. We are plainly in an era where
what doesn’t work is clearer than what does, and where the formerly stable
beliefs and behaviors of what we used to call the news industry are giving way
to a far more variable set of entities than anything we saw in the 20th century.
We do imagine (or at least hope) that these recommendations will be useful for
organizations that want to avoid the worst of the anachronism between traditional
process and contemporary opportunity and want to take advantage of the
possibilities that exist today.
\chapter{Section 1: Journalists}
On June 28, 2012, the Supreme Court handed down its decision on the legality of
the individual health care mandate contained in President Barack Obama’s Affordable
Care Act (ACA). Coming in an election year, with the incumbent president
faced with having his policy centerpiece ruled unconstitutional, the significance of
the decision went beyond health care: It was a major political story.
Every major media outlet focused on the story in the days leading up to the decision.
It was finally announced at 10:07 a.m. \href{http://www.slate.com/blogs/browbeat/2012/06/28/aca_mandate_struck_down_cnn_and_fox_misreport_the_historic_decision_.html}{CNN reported that the individual
mandate had been rejected}. \href{http://www.scotusblog.com/2012/06/the-mandate-is-constitutional-in-plain-english/}{SCOTUSblog reported that the individual mandate
had in fact been upheld}.
The cable news network’s embarrassment in reporting the decision erroneously
was exceeded only by the breakthrough moment for what was until then a
little-known specialist website whose sole beat is the Supreme Court. On that
day, SCOTUSblog became the key source for must-read breaking context and
analysis of the court’s ACA opinion. \href{http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2012/06/internet-gone-wild-scotusblog-explodes-with-health-care-enthusiasm/259108/}{The Atlantic later broke down the progress
of SCOTUSblog’s coverage}, reporting that by 10:22, 15 minutes after the decision
was delivered, the site had close to a million visitors; it had to install extra
server capacity for the surge in traffic.
SCOTUSblog was founded in 2003 by the husband-and-wife team of Tom
Goldstein and Amy Howe. Neither was a journalist; they were partners in a law
practice and lectured at Harvard and Stanford law schools. On the morning of
the decision, Goldstein covered the whole process live; this live-blogging became
C-SPAN 3’s source of coverage. Goldstein described the ruling as ``our Superbowl,''
and said his goal was to provide the best analysis of the ruling, at the most
appropriate moment for the audience.
SCOTUSblog demonstrates that journalism can be done outside traditional
newsrooms, by individuals free of traditional demands of both commerce and
process. In an environment of what journalism professor Jeff Jarvis describes as
``do what you do best and link to the rest,'' the SCOTUSblog model delivers
the most consistent coverage of the Supreme Court and aims to deliver the best coverage as well. SCOTUSblog will not rush 25 journalists into Haiti in the
event of an earthquake (or assign any to Lindsay Lohan’s DUI hearing), so it is
not replacing CNN. But it doesn’t have to. SCOTUSblog has found its niche and
knows what its role is.
Journalists exist because people need to know what has happened and why. The
way news is most effectively and reliably relayed is by those with a combination
of deep knowledge of the subject and a responsiveness to audience requirements.
On this occasion, SCOTUSblog managed to achieve both goals. While CNN
corrected its erroneous reporting after several critical minutes, it was initially
deficient on the most basic metric: reporting what the court had actually decided.
The SCOTUSblog breakthrough is just one example of how the customary
territory of traditional journalists is being eroded. Surveying the new news ecosystem
brings up examples far more radical than SCOTUSblog, which employs
reporters alongside its lawyer-blogger founders. In some cases, nonprofessional
journalists have proven they can do journalism at as high a level as professional
journalists, and sometimes higher. Experts, whether economist Nouriel Roubini
on the housing bubble, sociologist Zeynep Tufekci on riots in the Middle East,
or financial analyst Susan Webber at Naked Capitalism, are producing contextual
pieces that outstrip many of the efforts produced by traditional journalists. This
is more than just individuals being able to publish their views directly; the Lance
Armstrong doping case was covered better and far earlier by NY Velocity, a specialist
bike-racing blog, than it was by the professional (and decidedly unskeptical)
sports press.
An interesting question about direct access to the public by experts arose after the
exposure of Bernie Madoff ’s Ponzi scheme. The most notable aspect of that fraud
was the failure of the Securities and Exchange Commission to heed the prescient,
detailed and accurate warnings of wrongdoing provided by the investor Harry
Markopolos. Ray Pellecchia at the investment blog Seeking Alpha asked, ``Could
a Markopolos Blog Have Stopped Madoff?'' Could the SEC have remained inattentive
if, instead of going to the agency, Markopolos had gone public with a
blog posting over the improbability of Madoff ’s trades? It’s impossible to run this
experiment, of course, but it’s easy to imagine that public analysis of Madoff ’s
trades would have had greater effect than leaving the matter to the professionals.
We have also reached a point where the ``crowd'' is publishing its own information
in real time to each other and the world. Data on any type of measurable
change are more cheaply gathered today than ever, and algorithms are developing
that are able to reassemble this information in fractions of a second and
produce accounts of events that have passed the Turing test of being indistinguishable
from those written by humans. All of this is done without any intervention
from a journalist.
The changes in the news ecosystem are not just a story about erosion, however.
Even as the old monopolies vanish, there is an increase in the amount of journalistically
useful work to be achieved through collaboration with amateurs, crowds
and machines. Commodities traders, for example, do not need a reporter to stand
by a wheat field and interview a farmer. Satellites can take real-time images of
the crops and interpret the visual data, turning it into useful data in the blink
of an eye. Narrative Science generates reports on quarterly results for Forbes.
com. Journatic causes both intrigue and distress with remotely compiled ``local''
reporting. Verification of ordnance dropped in market squares in the Middle East
occurs through networks of witnesses with mobile phones and military experts
on Twitter, publishing firsthand accounts and their analyses in real time.
The list of what a journalist can do grows daily, as the plasticity of communications
technology changes both reporting capabilities and audience behaviors. AP
journalist and news innovator Jonathan Stray noted in a post:
\begin{quote}Each of the acts that make up journalism might best be done inside
or outside the newsroom, by professionals or amateurs or partners or
specialists. It all depends upon the economics of the ecosystem and,
ultimately, the needs of the users.
\end{quote}
Understanding the disruption to news production and journalism, and deciding
where human effort can be most effectively applied, will be vital for all journalists.
Figuring out the most useful role a journalist can play in the new news
ecosystem requires asking two related questions: What can new entrants in the
news ecosystem now do better than journalists could do under the old model,
and what roles can journalists themselves best play?
\subsection{What Social Media Does Better}
\subsubsection{Amateurs}
The journalistic value of the social media exists on a spectrum, from the individual
person with a key piece of information—the eyewitness, the inside observer—
all the way through the large collective. Bradley Manning, the private in Army
intelligence charged with divulging hundreds of thousands of State Department
documents to the whistle-blowing website WikiLeaks, occupied a position of
singular importance, while the BBC’s documentation of debris scattered after
the space shuttle Columbia exploded required multiple independent observers.
Huffington Post’s Off the Bus project in 2008 occupied a similar spectrum; blogger
Mayhill Fowler’s coverage of Obama’s remarks at a San Francisco fundraiser
about people who ``cling to guns and religion'' came from a sole source, while
coverage of the Iowa caucuses relied on a crowd.
When the Navy SEALs took down Osama bin Laden, the first public ``report''
came from Sohaib Athar (Twitter name @reallyvirtual) or, in his own words, ``uh
oh I’m the guy who live blogged the Osama raid without knowing it.'' Sohaib
Athar is not a journalist (he’s an IT consultant in Abbottabad, Pakistan, where the
raid took place) and might not even have known he was practicing journalism,
but as Steve Myers, then at the Poynter Institute, said ``he acted like a journalist.''
Athar tweeted about hearing a helicopter and a blast, then responded to inquiries,
added information when he thought he had it, followed the thread of the story
and created context for it. Athar became a resource for journalists who were
reconstructing a timeline of the events—a part of the verification system that
could be compared in real time against the official version.
For many newsworthy events, it’s increasingly more likely that the first available
description will be produced by a connected citizen than by a professional journalist.
For some kinds of events—natural disasters, mass murders—the transition
is complete.
In that sense, as with so many of the changes in journalism, the erosion of the old
way of doing things is accompanied by an increase in new opportunities and new
needs for journalistically important work. The journalist has not been replaced
but displaced, moved higher up the editorial chain from the production of initial
observations to a role that emphasizes verification and interpretation, bringing
sense to the streams of text, audio, photos and video produced by the public.
``Original reporting'' occupies pride of place within journalistic self-conception—
it is at the core of what journalists do that they say cannot be done by
others; it is the aspect of their work that requires the most tacit skill; it is the
function that most directly serves the public good. The importance of original
reporting is reflected in many of the more perennial battles that have been fought
around journalism over the past decade and a half, from the seemingly endless
struggle of ``bloggers vs. journalists'' to the conflict over news aggregation vs.
original reporting.
Because original reporting is so often perceived as simplistic or methodologically
naive, it is frequently misunderstood by outside observers. Getting key bits of
descriptive information out of an eyewitness, aggressively challenging the verbal
responses of a seasoned government bureaucrat, knowing exactly where to
find a key document, or navigating the routines and idiosyncrasies of complex
modern organizations is a non-trivial intellectual endeavor, and a public good
to boot. In many instances, the most important aspects of individual journalistic
work remain what they’ve always been at their best: interviewing, making direct
observations and analyzing individual documents.
And yet, many of the strategies we advocate do not easily map onto the original
reporting paradigm. Most journalists, and journalistic institutions, have failed to
take advantage of the explosion in potentially newsworthy content facilitated by
the growth in digital communication. The reality is that most journalists at most
newspapers do not spend most of their time conducting anything like empirically
robust forms of evidence gathering. Like the historical fallacy of a journalistic
``golden age,'' the belief in the value of original reporting often exceeds the
volume at which it is actually produced.
Too many reporters remain locked into a mindset where a relatively limited list
of sources is still relied on to gather evidence for most important stories, with the
occasional rewritten press release or direct observation thrown in. This insidercentric
idea of original reporting excludes social media, the explosion of digital
data, algorithmically generated sources of information, and many other new
strategies of information gathering that we emphasize here.
There should be more original reporting, not less, and this original reporting
should learn to live alongside newer forms of journalistic evidence gathering.
We acknowledge the very real threat to original reporting posed by the economic
collapse of newspapers; solving this dilemma requires new attention to
journalistic institutions, which we will address more fully in the next section,
on institutions.
\subsubsection{Crowds}
When you aggregate enough individual participants, you get a crowd. One thing
that crowds do better than journalists is collect data. When Japan was hit by an
earthquake in March 2011, and the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant suffered a
leak, frustration around the lack of availability of up-to-date data on radiation
levels led to individuals with Geiger counters filming the readings and streaming
them to UStream.
Platforms for sharing real-time data, such as \href{https://cosm.com/}{Cosm}, rely on activist groups of businesses
or simply interested individuals gathering whatever information they are
interested in—air quality, traffic speed, energy efficiency—and sharing it through
low-cost sensors. These sites provide a range, depth and accuracy of data that
simply cannot be matched by individual reporters.
Citizens also photograph events, film important pieces of news, and sometimes,
as Off the Bus did for the Huffington Post in 2008, get political scoops. Social
platforms such as Facebook and Twitter recognize that gathering all information
now available and interpreting it is a task beyond human scale. Built in to all
social platforms and search engines are algorithmic capabilities helping to analyze
what subjects are being shared, which topics are most discussed by whom, and
when information emerges and how it moves.
The availability of resources like citizen photos doesn’t obviate the need for
journalism or journalists, but it does change the job from being the source of the
initial capture of an image or observation to being the person who can make
relevant requests, and then filter and contextualize the results. The word ``crowdsourcing''
itself implies a ``one to many'' relationship for the journalist: asking a
question or deriving an answer from a large group of people. But the ``crowd'' is also a series of individuals performing networked activities, which can be interrogated
and used for a more complete version of events or to discover things that
were not easily or quickly obtained through traditional shoe-leather reporting.
\subsection{What Machines Do Better}
One thing machines do better is create value from large amounts of data at high
speed. Automation of process and content is the most under-explored territory
for reducing costs of journalism and improving editorial output. Within five to
10 years, we will see cheaply produced information monitored on networks
of wireless devices. Their output, from telling people the optimum time to use
water to avoid polluting rivers, to when to cross the road, raise questions of data
ethics, ownership and use.
In the technology industry, startups like \href{http://www.palantir.com/}{Palantir}, \href{http://www.kaggle.com/}{Kaggle} and \href{http://www.narrativescience.com/}{Narrative Science}
are exciting investors with the infinite capabilities offered by data gathering and
organization through algorithms.
With a staff of 30, two-thirds engineers and one-third editorial, Narrative
Science ``takes raw numerical data and generates full narratives,'' as chief
technology officer Kris Hammond describes it. He and his team of computer
scientists work on identifying what constitute the key elements of a story, and
how this might vary for a recap from a baseball game or a financial earnings
report. They then write code that allows streams of data to be turned into
words. Clients for the low-cost content range from commercial businesses to
traditional media outlets.
Narrative Science proposes to automate production of standard stories such as
ordinary financial statements and capsule game summaries. This approach reduces
the human inputs required for repetitious work, freeing up labor for more complex
or interpretive tasks, rather than describing basically uneventful occurrences.
And, as always, commodification expands the number of participants beyond the
traditional professional cadre. If your child plays in a Little League baseball game
and you use an iPhone app called GameChanger to record the scores, Narrative
Science will process those data instantaneously into a written description of the
game. More than a million such game reports will be generated this year.
Hammond said in an interview with Wired that he anticipated that 80 to
90 percent of stories in the future will be algorithmically generated. We asked
him for his rationale, and he explained that the high levels of localized and personal
data likely to be collected and made available online will greatly expand
the type of ``story'' that can be generated. The 90 percent figure thus assumes
not just more granular data, but a much larger universe of stories or content
being published, by a much larger collection of reporters, most of whom are
amateurs. Anywhere data are available in this digital format will be suitable for
this type of reporting, and anywhere there are no such data, like the local town
hall meeting, will need a reporter to record the data.
Hammond says the machines his team builds must ``think like journalists''; his
interest is looking at what journalists do, and then replicating it through programming.
``We want the machine to come to people—humanize the machine
and make human insight at tremendous and outrageous scale.''
Reporters and editors find this scenario terrifying. Journalists and programmers
(or journalists who are computer scientists) very rarely work on this kind of
replication process. As Reg Chua, head of data and innovation for Thomson
Reuters, commented, ``We don’t have the understanding in place, there are only
a handful of news organizations that have the capabilities at the moment.''
If the answer to the question ``what do algorithms do better?'' is that they produce
stories that come from structured data, and if the world of structured data
of a personal, local, national and international nature is exponentially increasing,
then an estimate of 90 percent of the universe of ``stories'' being automated is
not farfetched.
\subsection{What Journalists Do Better}
Prior to the spread of the steam engine, all cloth was ``artisanal,'' in the sense of
being made by artisans. It was not, however, very well made; humans were making
cloth not because of their superior skill but because there was no alternative.
The steam engine displaced production of low-end woven materials, which
ended the use of human beings for most of the raw production of cloth but
created a raft of new jobs for high-quality artisans, as well as designers of new
patterns and managers of mills.
We believe that something similar is happening to journalism—the rise of what
we think of as ``the press'' coincided with the industrialization of reproduction
and distribution of printed matter. When the cost of sending a column inch of
writing to a thousand people began falling, news organizations could swing more
of their resources to the daily production of content. Now we are witnessing a
related change—the gathering and dissemination of facts, and even of basic analysis,
is being automated. This obviously disrupts those jobs that employed journalists,
not as artisans but simply as bodies, people who did the work because no
machine could. It also allows news organizations, traditional and new, to swing
more of their resources to the kind of investigative and interpretive work that
only humans, not algorithms, can do.
\subsubsection{Accountability}
A recurring question that society asks and demands to have answered—usually
when things go wrong—is: ``Who is responsible?'' If journalism has an impact
and part of its role is to force accountability in other institutions, then it must
be able to produce accountability of its own. The two government inquiries,
one police inquiry and series of charges into the News of the World’s widely
publicized phone hacking case in the United Kingdom demonstrate rather vividly
that while journalists should have the freedom to publish, they also have to
account personally for their actions.
Identifying who bears publishing risk is legally important and will become more
so, both in the field of prosecutions and protections.
The construction of programs and algorithms that replace human reporting is
made by a series of decisions that needs to be explicable and accountable to those
affected. Journalists write algorithms at Narrative Science; at Google News, engineers
have to understand what makes a story ``better'' to improve an algorithm.
Data and algorithms are as political as cartoons and op-ed pieces, but seldom
carry the same transparency.
New areas of accountability are emerging. One question journalists and news
institutions need to involve themselves in is: ``What are you doing with my data?''
It might not matter who is a journalist, except to the person disclosing information
to a journalist.
Equally, protections and defenses afforded to journalists must be made available
to everyone who is making information available in the public interest. If a journalist
or news organization owns your data, then you might reasonably expect
them not to be handed over to the police.
We know what happens when sensitive information, such as the diplomatic
cables published by WikiLeaks, is hosted on a platform that is inherently commercial
but not inherently journalistic. Those services can be withdrawn; both an
arm of Amazon that provided web services to WikiLeaks, and PayPal, the online
payment mechanism, severed their ties to the organization. Platforms that engage
in censorship for commercial expediency are often less easy to spot. Rebecca
MacKinnon, a New America Foundation fellow and author of ``Consent of the
Networked,'' points out that Apple’s approval process of products for its popular
app store is opaque and arbitrary, and the rejection of some of the material
amounts to censorship, as with its famously opaque decision to reject developer
Joshua Begley’s interactive map of drone strikes. Therefore, just in choosing an
Apple product to use, journalists participate in shaping a future of the internet
that engages in censorship.
\subsubseciton{Efficiency}
Self-evident as it is, journalists can be much more efficient than machines at
obtaining and disseminating certain types of information. Access and ``exclusivity''
or ``ownership'' of a story is created through interviewing people. Making
phone calls to the White House or the school board, showing up at meetings and
being receptive to feedback, sharing views and expressing doubt all make news
more of the ``drama'' that James Carey identified as central to the concept of a
newspaper. These very personal and human activities mark journalism as a form
of information performance rather than simply a dissemination of facts.
\subsubsection{Originality}
The origination of ideas, algorithms, the formation of movements, and innovations
to practices all require originality of thought. Journalists should be provoking
change, initiating experimentation and instigating activity. Recognizing what
is important about those credit default swaps or why Mitt Romney’s tax affairs
needed to be pursued relies on a complexity of understanding about the world
for which it is still difficult to build and maintain machines. Cultural literacy skills
distinguish reporters, editors, designers and other journalists from other systems
of data gathering and dissemination.
\subsubsection{Charisma}
People follow people, and therefore just by ``being human'' journalists create a
more powerful role for themselves. It is a device personality-driven television has
long relied on, but only in a one-way medium. In a networked world, the ability