diff --git a/arbnode/batch_poster.go b/arbnode/batch_poster.go
index 5d61bc5f14..a54336fd5a 100644
--- a/arbnode/batch_poster.go
+++ b/arbnode/batch_poster.go
@@ -73,6 +73,7 @@ type BatchPoster struct {
 	dataPoster          *dataposter.DataPoster
 	redisLock           *redislock.Simple
 	firstEphemeralError time.Time // first time a continuous error suspected to be ephemeral occurred
+	messagesPerBatch    *arbmath.MovingAverage[uint64]
 	// This is an atomic variable that should only be accessed atomically.
 	// An estimate of the number of batches we want to post but haven't yet.
 	// This doesn't include batches which we don't want to post yet due to the L1 bounds.
@@ -272,6 +273,10 @@ func NewBatchPoster(ctx context.Context, opts *BatchPosterOpts) (*BatchPoster, e
 		daWriter:        opts.DAWriter,
 		redisLock:       redisLock,
 	}
+	b.messagesPerBatch, err = arbmath.NewMovingAverage[uint64](20)
+	if err != nil {
+		return nil, err
+	}
 	dataPosterConfigFetcher := func() *dataposter.DataPosterConfig {
 		return &(opts.Config().DataPoster)
 	}
@@ -1062,8 +1067,21 @@ func (b *BatchPoster) maybePostSequencerBatch(ctx context.Context) (bool, error)
 	)
 	recentlyHitL1Bounds := time.Since(b.lastHitL1Bounds) < config.PollInterval*3
 	postedMessages := b.building.msgCount - batchPosition.MessageCount
+	b.messagesPerBatch.Update(uint64(postedMessages))
 	unpostedMessages := msgCount - b.building.msgCount
-	backlog := uint64(unpostedMessages) / uint64(postedMessages)
+	messagesPerBatch := b.messagesPerBatch.Average()
+	if messagesPerBatch == 0 {
+		// This should be impossible because we always post at least one message in a batch.
+		// That said, better safe than sorry, as we would panic if this remained at 0.
+		log.Warn(
+			"messagesPerBatch is somehow zero",
+			"postedMessages", postedMessages,
+			"buildingFrom", batchPosition.MessageCount,
+			"buildingTo", b.building.msgCount,
+		)
+		messagesPerBatch = 1
+	}
+	backlog := uint64(unpostedMessages) / messagesPerBatch
 	if backlog > 10 {
 		logLevel := log.Warn
 		if recentlyHitL1Bounds {
@@ -1076,7 +1094,8 @@ func (b *BatchPoster) maybePostSequencerBatch(ctx context.Context) (bool, error)
 			"recentlyHitL1Bounds", recentlyHitL1Bounds,
 			"currentPosition", b.building.msgCount,
 			"messageCount", msgCount,
-			"lastPostedMessages", postedMessages,
+			"messagesPerBatch", messagesPerBatch,
+			"postedMessages", postedMessages,
 			"unpostedMessages", unpostedMessages,
 			"batchBacklogEstimate", backlog,
 		)
diff --git a/util/arbmath/math.go b/util/arbmath/math.go
index 3d1df0ce64..eaac79bfad 100644
--- a/util/arbmath/math.go
+++ b/util/arbmath/math.go
@@ -47,14 +47,14 @@ type Float interface {
 	~float32 | ~float64
 }
 
-// Ordered is anything that implements comparison operators such as `<` and `>`.
+// Number is anything that implements operators such as `<`, `+` and `/`.
 // Unfortunately, that doesn't include big ints.
-type Ordered interface {
+type Number interface {
 	Integer | Float
 }
 
 // MinInt the minimum of two ints
-func MinInt[T Ordered](value, ceiling T) T {
+func MinInt[T Number](value, ceiling T) T {
 	if value > ceiling {
 		return ceiling
 	}
@@ -62,7 +62,7 @@ func MinInt[T Ordered](value, ceiling T) T {
 }
 
 // MaxInt the maximum of two ints
-func MaxInt[T Ordered](value, floor T) T {
+func MaxInt[T Number](value, floor T) T {
 	if value < floor {
 		return floor
 	}
diff --git a/util/arbmath/moving_average.go b/util/arbmath/moving_average.go
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000..fcd5f6e307
--- /dev/null
+++ b/util/arbmath/moving_average.go
@@ -0,0 +1,46 @@
+// Copyright 2023, Offchain Labs, Inc.
+// For license information, see https://github.com/nitro/blob/master/LICENSE
+
+package arbmath
+
+import "fmt"
+
+// A simple moving average of a generic number type.
+type MovingAverage[T Number] struct {
+	buffer         []T
+	bufferPosition int
+	sum            T
+}
+
+func NewMovingAverage[T Number](period int) (*MovingAverage[T], error) {
+	if period <= 0 {
+		return nil, fmt.Errorf("MovingAverage period specified as %v but it must be positive", period)
+	}
+	return &MovingAverage[T]{
+		buffer: make([]T, 0, period),
+	}, nil
+}
+
+func (a *MovingAverage[T]) Update(value T) {
+	period := cap(a.buffer)
+	if period == 0 {
+		return
+	}
+	if len(a.buffer) < period {
+		a.buffer = append(a.buffer, value)
+		a.sum += value
+	} else {
+		a.sum += value
+		a.sum -= a.buffer[a.bufferPosition]
+		a.buffer[a.bufferPosition] = value
+		a.bufferPosition = (a.bufferPosition + 1) % period
+	}
+}
+
+// Average returns the current moving average, or zero if no values have been added.
+func (a *MovingAverage[T]) Average() T {
+	if len(a.buffer) == 0 {
+		return 0
+	}
+	return a.sum / T(len(a.buffer))
+}
diff --git a/util/arbmath/moving_average_test.go b/util/arbmath/moving_average_test.go
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000..9013d3f487
--- /dev/null
+++ b/util/arbmath/moving_average_test.go
@@ -0,0 +1,47 @@
+// Copyright 2023, Offchain Labs, Inc.
+// For license information, see https://github.com/nitro/blob/master/LICENSE
+
+package arbmath
+
+import "testing"
+
+func TestMovingAverage(t *testing.T) {
+	_, err := NewMovingAverage[int](0)
+	if err == nil {
+		t.Error("Expected error when creating moving average of period 0")
+	}
+	_, err = NewMovingAverage[int](-1)
+	if err == nil {
+		t.Error("Expected error when creating moving average of period -1")
+	}
+
+	ma, err := NewMovingAverage[int](5)
+	if err != nil {
+		t.Fatalf("Error creating moving average of period 5: %v", err)
+	}
+	if ma.Average() != 0 {
+		t.Errorf("Average() = %v, want 0", ma.Average())
+	}
+	ma.Update(2)
+	if ma.Average() != 2 {
+		t.Errorf("Average() = %v, want 2", ma.Average())
+	}
+	ma.Update(4)
+	if ma.Average() != 3 {
+		t.Errorf("Average() = %v, want 3", ma.Average())
+	}
+
+	for i := 0; i < 5; i++ {
+		ma.Update(10)
+	}
+	if ma.Average() != 10 {
+		t.Errorf("Average() = %v, want 10", ma.Average())
+	}
+
+	for i := 0; i < 5; i++ {
+		ma.Update(0)
+	}
+	if ma.Average() != 0 {
+		t.Errorf("Average() = %v, want 0", ma.Average())
+	}
+}